UFC 110 Breakdowns and Predictions

In terms of style match-ups, this is easily the most interesting card so far this year. This event kicks off the next few months of stacked cards.

Despite no title being on the line, these bouts have major implications. Who will become the next number No. 1 contender for the Heavyweight Championship? Can Bisping compete at the highest level? How good is George Sotiropoulos?

Is Ryan Bader deserving of the hype? Has it all ended for Mirko “Cro Cop”?

All of these questions will be answered Saturday night. I have to commend Joe Silva on the matchmaking. This is really good stuff.

I’m going to try to break this thing down. This was a really hard card to predict. Let’s see how it all unfolds.

Once again, I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks and fight honors listed.

Cain Velasquez Vs. Antonio “Minotauro” Rodrigo Nogueira

Key Victories:

Velasquez (Cheick Kongo, Ben Rothwell )

Nogueira (Randy Couture, Tim Sylvia, Josh Barnett, Fabricio Werdum, Mirko Cro Cop, Heath Herring, Dan Henderson, Mark Coleman, Sergei Kharitonov )

Forecast:

The race to the Undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship begins here. The highly touted American Kickboxing Academy heavyweight, Cain Velasquez, will take on Black House’s Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Big Nog).

Velasquez is undefeated and coming off of a complete destruction of Ben Rothwell. Big Nog took a hard earned unanimous decision victory over Randy Couture in his last outing.

The winner of this bout will face the winner of Shane Carwin/Frank Mir Vs. Brock Lesnar for the Heavyweight Championship; However, if Velasquez wins, he will probably end up fighting Paulo Thiago (I’m just kidding! Moving on...).

We all know what Big Nog brings to the table. The guy wears more battle scars than Anakin Skywalker. The only difference is that this isn’t fantasy.

Nogueira is a true legend of the sport. He trains at Black House in Brazil. The gym features fighters like Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Jose Aldo, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, Paulo Filho, and Junior Dos Santos.

He is a black belt in both BJJ (Brazilian Jiu Jitsu) and Judo. Cain Velasquez trains at American Kickboxing Academy. He works with the likes of Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Mike Swick, Cung Le, Josh Thomson, and Paul Buentello.

Velasquez is an explosive wrestler with a horseman-like workmanship. He is a two-time All-American collegiate wrestler from Arizona State, a Junior College National Champ at Iowa Central Community College, and a two-time 5A High School State Champion.

Keys to Victory:

Due to Velasquez’s incomplete standup, Nogueira needs to keep this battle on the feet. Big Nog has very underrated boxing. He should use his jab and simple combos to keep Velasquez at bay.

He needs to be sure not to over-commit with any of his strikes. The relentless Velasquez will constantly be looking for an opportunity to get this fight to the ground.

If the fight goes to the ground, Nogueira will be far from helpless. 20 out of his 32 wins have come by submission. Many consider Big Nog one of the best submission artists in the game....The only problem...On top, Velasquez will make you work like never before.

A static Nogueira will quickly become a brutally smashed up Nogueira. While raining down punishment, Velasquez transitions from position to position constantly.

Nogueira should try to take advantage of these transitions with sweeps. He should also steadily look for submissions or a way to get back to his feet. This will be the trickiest battle of Cain Velasquez’s young career.

Ultimately, we all know Cain wants to outwork Nogueira and ground-and-pound him into oblivion.

The question won’t be as much about whether Velasquez can get the takedown. It will be more about whether or not he can avoid getting caught in a submission.

Nogueira is extremely hard to finish. Some people even get themselves caught in their attempts to finish him.

While Velasquez should go for the finish if he smells blood, he should also take a step back and secure his position when Nogueira gains the leverage advantage.

He needs to be weary of sweeps if he manages to pass Nogueira’s guard. As far as the standup goes, Velasquez should only use it as a means of setting up his takedown attempts.

Prediction:

Stylistically, this is a very interesting fight. This is both a huge step up in competition for Velasquez and a different style than we’re accustomed to seeing him face.

There is only one sure thing going into this fight. Cain Velasquez can get the fight to the ground.

Everything else will be only questions. How good is Cain’s submission defense? Can he strike with Nogueira? Can he pass Nogueira’s guard and keep from getting swept?

I believe in another truth that will be heard around the world come Saturday night. Cain Velasquez is for real. Win or Lose, Nogueira will show signs of being in a war after this fight is over with. This was a tough fight for me to choose.

In the end, I decided to go all in on Cain Velasquez. Look for Velasquez to get the fight to the ground immediately. Due to Nogueira having a heart the size of Brazil, this will be a long and thorough ground-and-pound onslaught.

I believe this will be Velasquez’s true coming-out party as he takes a convincing, unanimous decision victory. On a side note, Nogueira is only 33 years of age and has a scar from being run over by a truck. As they alter height and weight, Big Nog’s age may also be altered to add to the appeal of this fight.

If the tale of the tape says he’s 50, has an 80 inch reach, and sports a scar from being impaled by a harpoon….Now you know the truth….Now you know the truth.

Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva Vs. Michael “The Count” Bisping

Key Victories:

Silva (Quinton Jackson, Keith Jardine, Dan Henderson, Kazuyuki Fujita, Ricardo Arona, Kazuhiro Nakamura, Hidehiko Yoshida, Ikuhisa Minowa, Kazushi Sakuraba )

Bisping (Denis Kang, Chris Leben, Matt Hamill, Jason Day )

Forecast:

In the co-main event, The Count will meet The Axe Murderer. If you had only nicknames to go on, this would be the easiest fight to call in MMA history…unless The Axe Murderer was compared to Twinkle Toes…ugh.

Nicknames aside, this is a really compelling fight. Wanderlei Silva is a black belt in BJJ. Yes, I’m serious. You can go check for yourself if you like. He currently trains in Brazil and Las Vegas.

While he works with former teammate, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in Brazil, he also trains with his own fight team in Las Vegas. Wanderlei’s aggressive style has delivered some of the most devastating knockouts in the history of the sport.

This goes on both ends of the spectrum. Silva has a "kill or be killed" mentality. He comes to either get knocked out or knock you out. He is easily a legend of the sport and a future hall of famer. In his last outing, Wanderlei suffered a tough decision loss to Rich Franklin.

Fighting out of Wolfslair, Michael Bisping is a UK native remembered for winning The Ultimate Fighter Season 3 reality show. He trains with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Paul Kelly, and Cheick Kongo. He is a Kickboxing, BJJ, and Muay Thai practitioner.

At UFC 105, Bisping secured the most notable victory in his career by stopping Denis Kang. In that fight, Bisping showed an ability to withstand early adversity and rally later on to obtain the W.

That victory was a step in the right direction of erasing his hugely Photoshopped KTFO loss to Dan Henderson. I wouldn’t normally use that term, but that knockout demanded it. After the setback, Bisping is now back on track to returning to title contention.

Keys to Victory:

Dear Michael Bisping, Do not circle aimlessly around the cage again. I caught you before. You can be caught again. Do you really want to relive those cold, lonely nights of seeing yourself being photoshopped on practically every MMA forum on the web?

Sincerely, Dan Henderson’s overhand right…

If Michael Bisping hopes to win this fight, he will need to follow his game plan flawlessly. People may disagree with this assessment, but I believe Michael Bisping is the better technical boxer in this fight.

Besides his horrendous circling, Bisping shined at times in the standup with Henderson. He was able to hit Henderson and use effective footwork and head-movement to dodge counters. Wanderlei Silva is by no means an overly technical striker. If Bisping is able to use his footwork and short combinations, it is conceivable that he could win this fight on the feet.

Why chance it? Bisping needs to change things up in this fight. Winning isn’t always about delivering exciting fights. Winning is about your ability to develop an effective strategy and implement it successfully in a fight. Bisping should use his footwork to bait Silva in the standup.

When Silva attempts to flurry, he should shoot in for the takedown. While Wanderlei is a black belt in BJJ, I don’t think we’re going to be seeing many submission attempts from him.

Silva’s BJJ competence will more than likely keep Bisping at bay from transitioning for any finishes of his own. A slow, drawn out battle is exactly what Bisping wants in this fight.

Wanderlei needs to stay in Bisping’s head for this fight. He needs to draw Bisping into a slugfest with him. When the distance closes, Wanderlei should look to use his strength to secure a tight Muay Thai clinch.

From that position, he could work Bisping with a barrage of knees and punches. Despite what Bisping may say, Wanderlei should expect for Bisping to try to go for takedowns in this bout.

He could look to time Bisping's shot with a well-placed knee; however, it would be safer for him to just work his standup and be prepared to defend the takedowns. Bisping is going to move around a lot!

It’s going to be important for Wanderlei to not get impatient. Reckless charges at Bisping could lead to an easy takedown and Wanderlei on his back for a round.

Prediction:

Michael Bisping has a much better chance than people are giving him in this fight. As long as both chins hold up, this will be an extremely competitive fight. I’ve been going back and forth on this one. I almost wanted it to be my upset pick.

I believe Bisping will try to stand with Wanderlei Silva in this fight. The problem lies in who Bisping is fighting this time around. Wanderlei Silva is not Denis Kang. He is not going to take a few punches, gas out, and give up in this fight.

If Bisping wants this fight, he’s going to have to take it. I don’t believe Bisping has the power to put Wanderlei away on the feet.

If Bisping is to win, I would foresee a decision. I just don’t see him surviving that long. Bisping will see some early success on the feet. He will make a fatal mistake and end up on the receiving end of a Wanderlei haymaker.

Look for Wanderlei to add to his already extensive highlight reel as he catches Bisping and follows with a barrage of overkill punches in the first round.

Joe “Daddy” Stevenson Vs. George Sotiropoulos

Key Victories:

Stevenson (Spencer Fisher, Nate Diaz, Gleison Tibau, Kurt Pellegrino, Melvin Guillard, Dokonjonosuke Mishima )

Sotiropoulos (Jason Dent )

Forecast:

In 2009, I believe Joe “Daddy” Stevenson had a viable claim to being the comeback fighter of the year. Suffering convincing losses to B.J. Penn, Kenny Florian, and Diego Sanchez, Stevenson went 1-3 throughout all of 2008 to the beginning of 2009.

After joining Team Jackson in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Stevenson has looked completely reinvigorated. He imposed his will on Nate Diaz to earn himself a unanimous decision victory. His most impressive rebound fight was his complete dissection of Spencer Fisher, who was forced to submit due to strikes in the bout.

Team Jackson consists of UFC WW Champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre, Rashad Evans, Keith Jardine, Nate Marquardt, Jon Jones, Carlos Condit, Roger Huerta, Shane Carwin, and now Andrei Arvlovski.

Joe is a black belt in BJJ and Judo. He earned his belt from ADCC and World Jiu-Jitsu Champion, Robert Drysdale.

George Sotiropoulos also has a black belt in BJJ. The Australian native is known for appearing on The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes Vs. Team Serra season.

Having worked at Xtreme Couture and with Eddie Bravo, Sotiropoulos is currently training at Fisticuffs gym in Vancouver, Washington. He is 4-0 in the UFC. His last fight ended with a 2nd round submission over Jason Dent.

Keys to Victory:

George Sotiropoulos is a much improved fighter since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter reality show. This is the biggest fight of his career. Not only is he getting a main card appearance on a major UFC event, he is also facing his toughest opponent yet.

Despite being a black belt in BJJ, Sotiropoulos’s striking has come a long way. He uses good form and keeps his punches really tight. Utilizing a nice jab, Sotiropoulos mixes his combinations together pretty well. He is still obviously a work in progress.

Stevenson is probably the better boxer of the two. The main advantage Sotiropoulos has going for him in this fight is his BJJ. When it comes to pulling off submissions, Sotiropoulos has shown sick technique in his changing of position and finishing on the ground.

With Stevenson also being the superior wrestler, it will be difficult to get this fight to the ground. Sotiropoulos should use his striking to disguise takedown attempts.

If he can push Stevenson against the cage, he could even look for standing sweeps…possibly a standing kimura? At any case, Sotiropoulos should try to pull guard. I believe he can survive a standup battle with Stevenson, but I don’t see him winning a 3 round fight that way.

Out of Stevenson’s 10 losses, 4 have come by submission. If Sotiropoulos can turn this into a BJJ match, his chances of getting the upset will increase drastically.

Stevenson should use his superior wrestling to keep this fight on the feet. If he stays active, I believe Joe can survive in Sotiropoulos’s guard.

When I say active, I mean actively paying attention to Sotiropoulos’s body movements at all times. What are his hips doing? What are his legs and arms doing? Stevenson must control every position.

One lazy move can lead to him getting swept and George Sotiropoulos on top. Stevenson would be better off sticking with his boxing in this fight.

He shouldn’t shoot for takedowns unless he surprisingly finds himself being overwhelmed or losing in the striking department.

Prediction:

Despite this being the easiest fight to pick for me on the card, I really like the match-up. It will be interesting to see what sort of gameplan Sotiropoulos comes up with. This is a big step up in competition for him. There are just too many variables working against him for me to choose him in this fight.

I believe Joe Stevenson is the better boxer and wrestler of the two. Stevenson will come out and dictate the entire fight. He will outbox Sotiropoulos and shrug off all takedown attempts. A desperate Sotiropoulos will start attempting to pull guard later on in the fight.

With his newfound camp, Stevenson will once again implement and stick with a prepared gameplan. Stevenson will gain his 3rd straight victory as he batters Sotiropoulos for 3 rounds to earn a unanimous decision nod.

“The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine Vs. Ryan “Darth” Bader

Key Victories:

Jardine (Chuck Liddell, Brandon Vera, Forrest Griffin, Wilson Gouveia, Mike Whitehead )

Bader (Carmelo Marrero, Eric Schafer, Vinny Magalhaes )

Forecast:

The battle of bad nicknames continue as “The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine looks to return to his winning ways as he takes on fast-rising LHW superstar, Ryan “Darth” Bader. Despite being obviously shy and one of the nicest guys you’ll ever meet, Keith Jardine is “The Dean of Mean”? If you want something unique and shocking, how about “The Dean of Ream”?

Keith Jardine isn’t even close to being alone. Someone apparently told Ryan Bader it would be wise to nickname himself “Darth” as reference to the infamous villain from Star Wars. My last name is McElroy. Should I nickname myself McLovin’? I’m just saying….

These are two talented LHW fighters. I find it amazing how Keith Jardine is constantly overlooked and underrated. If not for his glass chin, it would be interesting to see where he would be in the sport right now.

Jardine has an unorthodox style coupled with heavy hands. His main problem has been consistency.

What Keith Jardine will we see Saturday night? Will we see the guy who beat Chuck Liddell, who stopped Forrest Griffin, and who gave Rampage all he could handle?….or Will we see the guy who got stopped violently in the first round by Houston Alexander, Wanderlei Silva, and Thiago Silva?

Jardine is currently on a two-fight losing skid. If anyone can get Jardine’s career back on track, Greg Jackson and his teammates at Jackson’s MMA (Rashad Evans, GSP, Nate Marquardt, Jon Jones, Andrei Arvlovski, Joe Stevenson, Shane Carwin) can do just that.

Ryan Bader boasts a perfect 10-0 record. He is an extremely athletic wrestler with heavy hands. In high school, he won 2 state wrestling championships. He was ranked fourth in the country.

After high school, Bader went on to become a 3-time PAC 10 Champion and a two-time Division 1 All-American at Arizona State University.

He currently trains with Jamie Varner, C.B. Dollaway, Joe Riggs, Ben Askren, Aaron Simpson, and Joe Riggs. Bader was the LHW winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Nogueira Vs. Mir season.

Keys to Victory:

This is a big step up from Eric Schafer (Bader’s last opponent). At any case, Ryan Bader needs to test Jardine’s chin early. All 4 of Jardine’s knockout losses have occurred in the first round.

Despite Jardine being the better striker, Bader has more than enough explosive power to add Jardine to yet another Ultimate Knockouts UFC DVD. It all depends on which Jardine shows up.

Ryan Bader should always be ready to implement his true game plan. He is a wrestler first and striker second. He should use his wrestling to keep Jardine guessing on the feet. A fake shot could bait Jardine into dropping his hands to defend. That could easily lead to an overhand right that would seal the biggest victory in Bader’s career.

This is a different style match-up than we are used to seeing Keith Jardine in. He hasn’t fought a solid wrestler since Mike Whitehead at UFC 57. I understand Jardine is unorthodox. His technique would get anyone else trying to mimic it laughed at or thrown out of a gym. It would be nice to see Jardine protect himself a little more in this fight. Not all of us were lucky to be born with sturdy chins like B.J. Penn, Rampage, or Patrick Cote. Even though Rampage has a good chin, he also has some of the best boxing defense in the game. Jardine has to keep his hands up and protect his less than mortal chin.

Keith Jardine should also avoid throwing a lot of leg kicks. When he throws one, he better be prepared to defend the takedown. We all know leg kicks are a major part of Jardine’s game. He won’t be able to throw them freely without consequence in this fight. He should use his boxing to outpoint Bader.

If he gets put on his back, he should scramble back to the cage and use it as leverage to pull himself back up. Jardine’s entire mentality should be box, sprawl, and scramble. Bader’s cardio started to wear in his last fight with Eric Schafer.

That could end up benefiting Jardine later on in the fight. If one thing is consistent about Jardine, he always comes in great shape.

Prediction:

Along with Mirko “Cro Cop” and Ben Rothwell, I found this to be one of the harder fights to pick on this card. It can always get tricky to pick fights when young superstars take on their first real challenge.

We haven’t seen enough of Ryan Bader at this level to make a more conclusive prediction. Keith Jardine is always a question mark. We don’t know which Jardine will show up for this fight.

I believe a motivated and determined Keith Jardine will show up to fight. The problem won’t be within Keith Jardine; however, the problem will reside in the style match-up. Ryan Bader is a bad match-up for Keith Jardine stylistically. His takedowns will be too explosive for Jardine to defend.

I don’t see Jardine doing much from his back. Bader will take Jardine down and grind out a decision. People will probably call Bader boring after this fight….but let’s be honest….Is it really Bader’s fault that he’s a better wrestler and Jardine displays a good guard in the fight?

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic Vs. “Big” Ben Rothwell

Key Victories:

Cro Cop (Josh Barnett, Wanderlei Silva, Hidehiko Yoshida, Ikuhisa Minowa, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman, Aleksander Emelianenko, Heath Herring, Kazuyuki Fujita, Igor Vovchanchyn, Kazushi Sakuraba )

Rothwell (Ricco Rodriguez, Krzysztof Soszynski, Roy Nelson )

Forecast:

I remember the days when I could faithfully utter the quote “Right leg puts you in the hospital…Left leg puts you in the cemetery.” Mirko “Cro Cop” was once considered by many to be the most feared striker on the planet.

The beatings and decapitations shown on countless highlight reels shrouded Mirko with an aura of destruction. Prior to the violence, we were treated to watching this cold, soft-spoken figure make his way to the ring prepared to consume the next victim sacrificed before him. Sigh…those were the days. “Were” is the key word here.

Mirko hasn’t won a significant fight since September 2006 (defeated Josh Barnett). After going 2-3 in the UFC and finding his career at a crossroads, Mirko looks to take on former IFL standout, Ben Rothwell.

Rothwell was last seen being thrown around like a ragged doll by Cain Velasquez. With his UFC debut not going like he’d hoped, Rothwell is going to be looking to make some noise in this fight.

Training out of Team Miletich, Rothwell is a former professional kick boxer. His kickboxing career proved short as he only amounted a 3-0 record before transitioning to MMA.

Team Miletich has spawned fighters like Tim Sylvia, Matt Hughes, Robbie Lawler, Spencer Fisher, Jeremy Horn, Jens Pulver, and Pat Miletich.

Keys to Victory:

As much as we would all love to see a vintage high-kick, Mirko has to look to other areas. Every fighter he fights expects him to throw the high-kick. In this fight, Mirko should put more emphasis on his boxing and leg kicks. If he is effective in other areas, he could use feints to disguise what he really wants to throw.

Mirko needs to show a lot more determination and offense. At times in his fight against Junior Dos Santos, Mirko would just stand there taking punishment without even attempting to counter.

Instead of delivering any form of offense, he just kept pushing Dos Santos away. It was an odd fight. Rothwell is a huge heavyweight. When the distance starts to close, Mirko needs to circle away to avoid being pressed up against the cage.

Ben Rothwell needs to be weary of the high-kick. Despite it being out of use for quite some time, Mirko will still try to throw it. Rothwell should keep a tight defense. He doesn’t have to worry about the takedowns in this bout.

I believe Rothwell is the more well-rounded of the two fighters. He should try to cut Mirko off and push him against the cage. He could use his size to wear Mirko down and batter him with short punches.

If the opportunity is there, Rothwell should go for a takedown. Mirko wouldn’t really be expecting it. We have all seen how ineffective Mirko is off his back.

Prediction:

We may be witnessing Mirko’s last fight in the UFC. If he loses in devastating fashion, it seems likely that the UFC would release him. The problem with Mirko goes beyond technique and skill. The sport is quickly passing him by. To be a world champion, you have to be well-rounded.

Mirko’s constant reluctance to improve in other areas has led to what we’re seeing now. To add to that, Mirko just doesn’t seem to have the fire and desire to be the best anymore.

Will Mirko’s recent training shakeup turn things around for him? I believe it will be a temporary fix.

Rothwell will get caught over-committing on a combination. Mirko will then finish with a barrage of punches before the referee steps in to save Rothwell late in the first round.


Official Picks

Cain Velasquez wins by Unanimous Decision

Wanderlei Silva wins by Round 1 KO

Joe Stevenson wins by Unanimous Decision

Ryan Bader wins by Unanimous Decision

Mirko “Cro Cop” wins by Round 1 TKO Stoppage


Fight of the Night: Cain Velasquez Vs. “Minotauro” Nogueira

Knockout of the Night: Wanderlei Silva Over Michael Bisping

Submission of the Night: Goran Reljic Over C.B. Dollaway