Novak Djokovic and the Battle for No. 2 in the ATP Rankings

It is a new high for Serbian Novak Djokovic, who finds himself ranked No. 2 in the world as well as being the No. 1 seed at Rotterdam this week.

Finally, after years of chasing that No. 2 spot, it seemed to fall into his lap as former No. 2 Rafael Nadal’s knees folded once again during the quarterfinals of the 2010 Australian Open.

For all but a few weeks starting in August 2009, when Nadal gave up his No. 2 ranking to Andy Murray just before the U.S. Open, Roger Federer and Nadal have held steadfast to the No. 1 and No. 2 spots in the ATP rankings since 2005.  

Nadal is absent from the Netherlands this week because of his recent knee injury. It is difficult to imagine Nadal as a factor in the rankings race until the clay season gets underway. 

Frankly, the Mallorcan would be well advised to skip the hard courts altogether because it is not worth further injury. His best chance at regaining one of the two top spots is by exerting his usual clay dominance and winning again at Stade Roland Garros.

This week, however, the new No. 2-ranked player in the world, Djokovic, is playing tennis at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam, sitting 510 points ahead of the third-ranked Murray and 640 points ahead of the fourth-ranked Nadal, with Federer safely over 3,000 points ahead of the pack.

Murray was the champion in Rotterdam in 2009, but he is not on hand to defend his title, opting instead to play next week in Marseilles. That means 500 fewer points for Murray, with a possible additional 500 for Djokovic if he wins in Rotterdam.  

Djokovic lost in the 2009 semifinals in Marseille to eventual winner Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Djokovic will lose 90 points by not participating there this year but will more than compensate for it by winning in Rotterdam, while Murray can only add 250 points by winning next week in France.

Djokovic would lend credence to his new ranking by winning the tournament in Rotterdam. At this point, not many feel he has earned his No. 2 spot, and not many feel he will retain it.  

They point to his second consecutive quarterfinal exit at the 2010 Australian Open, which, to be perfectly fair, was not Djokovic’s fault. He suffered a bout of indigestion as he faced Tsonga, losing in five sets, 6-7, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 1-6. 

Except for 2008, the year he won it, Djokovic has not fared well recently at the Australian Open, often because of excessive heat issues or illness during the tournament.

The Serb’s inability to stay the course during the tournament down under has brought criticism, reminding us all of Andy Roddick’s press conference in New York, when he made fun of Djokovic by providing the assembled journalists with a long list of possible ailments that might befall Djokovic at any moment.

These comments were the direct result of the Serb’s habit of retiring during matches when he appeared to be losing.

Djokovic, who turns 23 in May, continues to reign in the top three of men’s tennis, but he has not made another breakthrough at the majors since 2008, and many fear he may not win another without a strong start in 2010. 

Djokovic has changed rackets, coaches, shoes, girlfriends, and his training regimen. However, nothing seems to enhance his mindset.

No one doubts the validity of his game. 

He has one of the purest ground strokes in tennis. His movement, his serve, his return game, and his court savvy all point to his prowess as an all-court player, but he cannot seem to retain his dominance for an entire two-week major tournament—at least not since 2008.

His chances of retaining his current ranking depend in large measure on his resolve and his fitness. A win in Rotterdam would provide the Serb with a minimal cushion.

To do that, he must get by Tommy Robredo and Gael Monfils, should the seedings hold, and conceivably either Nikolay Davydenko, seeded No. 2, or Robin Soderling in the finals. 

After Rotterdam, Djokovic goes into Dubai as the defending champion and faces all the top players in the world with the exception of Nadal, who has withdrawn from play there. It will be Federer’s first tournament since the Australian Open.

Coming through to win in Dubai will be a real test for the Serb.

Djokovic has amazing potential. His major battle, like so many other potentially great players, is mental. This is the reality facing all the young players knocking on the door—Federer and Nadal have locked up tight against them for the past five years.

Few have advanced inside except Djokovic at the Australian Open in 2008 and Juan Martin del Potro at the U.S. Open in 2009.  

The tennis campaign of 2010 will launch a struggle among Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal battling for the No. 2 spot. 

Although Nadal and his camp profess they couldn't care less about the ranking, preferring to concentrate on winning majors, the two objectives are not mutually exclusive. Winning majors for Nadal will bring him back to the top of the game.  

Winning majors for Murray and Djokovic will also bring about an equal result. Right now, they are within a thousand points of each other, with del Potro not far behind. 

If you look at last year at this time, Nadal was the No. 1 player with 14,000 points, followed by Federer with 11,000, Djokovic with 9,010 and Murray 7,360. 

This year, Nadal is down 6,330 points from last year, when he lost all three major titles—the French, Wimbledon, and now the 2010 Australian Open.  

The other top contenders have remained basically static within a few hundred points of where they were a year ago.

It is anybody’s race to win, as 2009 proved. The question is—will anyone other than Federer or Nadal go after the Slams with the resolve and the physical and mental edge to win? 

Is this the year Djokovic finally fits all the pieces of his tennis promise together and takes the crown from Federer? It all starts in Rotterdam...