NFL Quarterback: a Mad Scientist's Approach to Winning Super Bowl XLIV

While Peyton Manning may hold the most obvious form of a champion’s pedigree, being the son of former Saints star quarterback Archie Manning, more interesting could be the fact that he seems to fall within the variables of another array of championship attributes.

Across the last twenty years, the Super Bowl’s winning quarterback has been at least six-four and hasn’t weighed less than 215 pounds.  Despite there being over forty Super Bowls to reference, there have also been only fourteen states that have given birth to championship quarterbacks.

One interesting aspect to those fourteen states is that Texas, has never had a super-bowl winning quarterback despite producing the most total players in NFL history.  California, the rust belt and the Deep South states appear to be the most successful for producing a ring-worthy signal caller.

Taking the three most well-known recent Super Bowl quarterbacks, Ben Roethlisberger stands six-five and weighs two forty one. Tom Brady, somewhat smaller, is still six-foot four and 225 pounds. The final entry, current participant Peyton Manning, stands right between at six-five and 230 pounds.

This is one trend Drew Brees hopes to buck. The New Orleans Saints quarterback seems to fly in the face of Superbowl pseudoscience.  Not only does he fall under the height and weight trends (six-feet flat and 209 pounds), but he also hails from Austin Texas. 

Brees is no stranger to odds.  He slipped into the second round in 2001 despite a great college career, because of concerns over size and stat inflation via Purdue’s offensive system. 

Once he fought his way to a starting role with the San Diego Chargers, he was allowed to leave the team via free agency, because of concerns over an injured throwing shoulder and a well-regarded young draft pick waiting in the wings. 

For the face of the New Orleans Saints, these facts just stand as one more obstacle to overcome on his unlikely path.  For Manning and the Colts, it adds another aspect to an already favored team’s chances.

But what does this mean for the future?  What young quarterbacks have the attributes to favor them to be seeing a Super Bowl at some point?

Only one Deep South-born quarterback under thirty ( San Diego Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers) is still looking for a ring.  From the first Super Bowl winning quarterback’s (Bart Starr) home state of Alabama, his six-five 228 pound frame fits within all the measurables given for a promising outlook on an eventual trophy (given his current number of starts if he follows the path of Peyton Manning it would be roughly at age 31 or 32).

California quarterbacks are much more plentiful at this point.  Rookie Mark Sanchez, as well as Matt Leinart, Mat Cassel, Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, and Aaron Rodgers  all hail from California.  Each of those meet the 215 pound weight expectation, however Sanchez, Romo, and Rodgers all fall below the expected height at only six-two.   

This bodes well for two USC backups-come starters in Matt Leinart and Matt Cassel, at six-five 232 and six-four 230 respectively.

So what quarterback does this method say is least favored?  Apparently, Detroit has struck out once more. Detroit QB Matt Stafford and Tennessee Titan QB Vince Young are the only young starting quarterbacks to come out of Super Bowl free states.

However, Young’s ideal six-five 233-pound build edges out Stafford, who at six-two, is the only young (30 or under) starting quarterback not to fit at least two of the three criteria among birth-state, height, and weight.  His 225 pounds would be the only qualifier.

How does this stand for the draft?  Interestingly enough, not a single major quarterback prospect fits within these guidelines at this point.  Only two of the top ten prospects stand at least six-four, Oklahoma's Sam Bradford and Cincinnati's Tony Pike. 

Between them, Bradford, who is listed at 214 pounds, is a large meal away from fulfilling the 215 pound criteria, but Tony Pike's leaner 212 pound frame hails from one of the Super Bowl's three quarterback hotbeds (Ohio).