UFC 109 Predictions

UFC 109 is upon us, and unlike most of the MMA events of today, THIS IS YOUR FATHER'S MMA! I say that of course because you have a main event featuring two guys who first fought in the UFC back in 1943 during WWII. I'm kidding of course, because Coleman and Couture didn't start fighting until the Korean War was already underway in 1951.

Nonetheless, it should be an entertaining fight between two guys who would have set records for buy rates if their primes were now instead of 10 or so years ago. Still, this is a very deep card, and it should be worth the money.

Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman:

The Hype: What can you say. Two great wrestlers and MMA hall of famers going at it in a fight that was supposed to have happened years ago, but never did. Generally, I don't side with the "old" guy in MMA events, but I have no choice here. One guy clearly stands out here over the other.

The Match: Coleman is at a clear disadvantage here. In his match against Bonnar, his striking was terrible—even with Bonnar flailing about as he normally does, constantly exposing himself (dropping his guard, not pants). He was able to score takedowns, but does anyone really think that type of success will come against Couture? No way Jose Aldo.

Couture will be able to defend the strength of Coleman much better than most. And even if he does get taken down, Randy won't allow Coleman to land any hammers or elbows. The end result will be a standup by the ref.

One thing I'm not sure of is how well Couture will be able to use his dirty boxing against Coleman. I have to think Mark will be prepared to defend against that. Still, Couture holds the advantage in the long range striking game. He'll do some damage there, and then seal the victory in tight before Coleman can catch up.

Prediction: Couture, Round 2—TKO (GNP)

Nate Marquardt vs Chael Sonnen

The Hype: The winner of this should get a shot at the Silva/Belfort winner, so there is a lot at stake. Marquardt and Sonnen are both coming off of victories over top tier opponents. Sonnen bested Yushin Okami in a no frills clear-cut victory, while Marquardt recorded one of my top two KOs of all-time (the other going to Rory Markham).

Oh yeah, Marquardt also has the Jeremy Horn Factor on his side (1-0 vs 0-3 from Sonnen)

The Match: Sonnen will rely too much on wrestling to get a victory. He's a poor striker (except for his left on the back end of a combo), so that won't be an issue for Marquardt.

Much like Coleman/Couture, one guy's offense isn't suited to defeat the other. And while Sonnen is trying to figure out how to stop Nate the Great from stuffing his takedown attempts, he has to be careful of getting his head knocked off.

That's how this one ends—Sonnen goes for a jab with the right, lowers his head, and Marquardt knocks it off. It's that exposure that will do Sonnen in, and it'll probably clear the way for future losses as well.

Prediction: Marquardt, Round 1—KO (punch)

Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago

The Hype: Swick is coming off a loss against Dan Hardy, who will be destroyed by GSP in due time. Thiago has a victory under his belt since his loss to Jon Fitch at UFC 100.

The similarities between Swick and Fitch are there, so I can see a repeat of the Fitch fight here. There's a definite X-factor in this fight though, as either fighter could score a KO on either a lucky punch or just a really smart one.

The Match: I have to think we'll see a return to the knockout artist Mike Swick in this fight. Maybe not by actual KO, but with the intensity he didn't seem to have in the Hardy fight. Thiago is very well rounded, so this fight is pretty even money in my opinion. Someone will need to get lucky, like I said, for it not to go the distance, but it will.

Prediction: Swick, Unanimous Decision

Damian Maia vs Dan Miller

The Hype: Here's another match that should please the crowd due to the caliber of fighters. Both are excellent BJJ practitioners, so again it's a toss up as to who should win. I have to give the slight edge to Maia over Miller in the matches I've seen each of them compete in. Regardless of who wins, it's always fun to see Jiu-Jitsu combatants go up against one another.

The Match: I think we're going the distance on this one. Both fighters are methodical enough to make the match drag out. Should be a score of 29-28 with no fighter seemingly taking any round with any degree of ease. Probably get some boos towards the end of the fight due to it being a closely contested ground match.

Prediction: Maia, Split Decision

Matt Serra vs Frank Trigg

The Hype: Not only are these two guys past their primes, they both suck. I've never thought Serra was very good, and Trigg always won against lesser guys, while not being able to secure victories over top names. Really, I've got nothing to say except hopefully we'll see gobs and gobs of blood.

The Match: But of course we won't see gobs of blood cause this will be a tight, in close battle. Whoever wins, whatever I don't give a sh*t. You're both never getting a title shot, so give it up.

Prediction: Trigg, Unanimous Decision

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

* Justin Buchholz vs. Mac Danzig

* Melvin Guillard vs. Ronnys Torres

PRELIMINARY CARD (Un-aired)

* Rob Emerson vs. Phillipe Nover

* Phil Davis vs. Brian Stann

* Tim Hague vs. Chris Tuchscherer

* Rolles Gracie vs. Mostapha Al Turk