UFC 109 RELENTLESS: Breakdowns and Predictions (Jordy McElroy)

UFC 109 will be the second major card in a row to not feature a title bout. UFC 110 is currently slated to be the third. I believe cards like these add to the wanted notion of the WEC Featherweight and Bantamweight divisions being added to the UFC. What if the main event for this card was Jose Aldo Vs. Urijah Faber? With only 5 champions and so many shows, it is impossible for the UFC to include a title fight on every card. The lighter divisions would really help the UFC bolster its cards. Those guys also deserve to get paid a lot more than they are. WEC cards often end up being even more exciting than UFC ones. I believe it will happen in the future. Can it please come sooner?

For some odd reason, cards that don’t look as appealing tend to be the UFC’s best ones. Maybe we are due an upset or two? It should be a fun night regardless. I’m going to try to break this thing down. My official picks are at the bottom of the page. I encourage you to please read my breakdowns as I discuss my reasoning for some of the picks I went with. Enjoy the fights!

Randy "The Natural" Couture Vs. Mark "The Hammer" Coleman


Key Victories:

Couture (Brandon Vera, Gabriel Gonzaga, Tim Sylvia, Vitor Belfort, Tito Ortiz, Chuck Liddell, Pedro Rizzo, Kevin Randleman, Jeremy Horn)

Coleman (Kazuyuki Fujita, Igor Vovchanchyn, Don Frye)


Forecast:

Here we go! Randy Couture will finally do battle against Mark Coleman in a bout that is over a decade past its due. This fight might have more saggage in it than a granny’s aerobics class, but I fully expect these two warriors to lay it all on the line. While Coleman is 45 years of age, Couture clocks in as his elder at 46. The mere idea of two men at these ages headlining a significant MMA event speaks merits of their character. Despite what people say, these two are still fighting world class fighters. In this sport, we often see fighters begin to breakdown in their mid-30’s. That alone speaks volumes to the rarity of Mark Coleman and Randy Couture.

This is a fight that was supposed to happen many years ago. Due to an injury, Couture had to pull out of the fight. Even though I’m not personally excited about this as a main event, I guess its better they fight now than later. Any longer we may have had to watch the two fight in a nursing home or at Wrestlemania (Yes, Vince would do that). Couture is coming off a win over Brandon Vera at UFC 105 in his return to the Light Heavyweight division. Coleman is coming off of a unanimous decision nod over Stephan Bonnar.

Keys to Victory:

Stylistically, this fight is more intriguing than its getting credit for. Even though both of these guys are wrestlers, they have different styles. While Randy Couture emphasizes a Greco Roman approach, Mark Coleman is a freestyle wrestler. The wrestling will determine the winner of this fight. Coleman needs to use his brute strength to snag the double leg on Randy. The trick for Coleman is to not over exert himself early on in the fight (if that’s possible). He needs to be patient and precise when he decides to explode in for a shot. I don’t see Mark Coleman besting Randy in a boxing match. Coleman needs to pack a lot of power in what he does throw. Even though Coleman isn’t recognized for his striking prowess, Randy’s chin has become more and more fragile over the years. A well-placed punch from Coleman could shock the world.

Mark Coleman should avoid the clinch at all costs in this fight. Randy's Greco Roman style gives him the ability to clinch, work dirty boxing, and mix in takedowns. All of Coleman’s shot attempts should come from the outside. He’s going to have to circle a lot. Randy will most likely try to cut off the cage and press him against the fence. If Randy turns this thing into a grinding clinch battle, this fight will be over before Mike Goldberg makes another embarrassing analogy. As for Randy…..Even though he loves to utilize his dirty boxing, he will have the chance to showcase his outside skills comfortably in this fight. He has better boxing, is faster, and has better head movement than Mark Coleman. Coleman’s chin is also looking mighty fragile these days. Randy should use his superior boxing to outpoint Coleman. When Coleman gets hurt and backs away, Randy should then move in and work his dirty boxing from the clinch.

Couture has the superior cardio is this fight. I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen Coleman go 2-3 rounds without sucking air. If Randy takes his time and doesn’t over commit, he should be fine in all areas of this fight. The only things he really needs to worry about is a wild haymaker and takedowns. I’m sure Couture has gone back to his wrestling basics in his training for this fight.

Prediction:

As said before, the outcome of this fight will hinge on who’s wrestling is the most effective. Can Coleman get the double leg? Can Couture use his own wrestling to stuff Coleman’s takedowns and force him into the clinch? This fight is incredibly one sided on paper. Mark Coleman is coming in a huge underdog. How many times have we seen scenarios like this in the sport of MMA where the underdog shocks the world? Being a strong wrestler with a lot of power, Mark Coleman has a shot here. Even though Randy is the superior boxer, he still needs to be careful on the feet. This is Coleman’s biggest fight in years. He even claims this is his biggest fight ever. I’m sure we will see a hungry and determined Mark Coleman on Saturday night.

Unfortunately, there are some people who just go hungry in this world. There are plenty of kids going hungry in Africa as we speak. Look for Coleman to do better than what people are expecting. His infant-like oxygen tank will eventually lead to his downfall. Coleman is a rare fighter to compete at the level he does at the age he is….But….As we all know, there is only one Randy Couture. That truth will become known once more as he cinches the clinch in the 2nd round and dirty boxes Coleman into unconsciousness. At times, it can get harder to control your bowel movements as you age. If someone goes to sleep Saturday night, keep your fingers crossed for fresh drawers. No one deserves that embarrassment.

Nate “The Great” Marquardt Vs. Chael Sonnen


Key Victories:

Marquardt (Demian Maia, Martin Kampmann, Jeremy Horn, Dean Lister, Kazuo Misaki, Yves Edwards)

Sonnen (Yushin Okami, Paulo Filho, Renato Sobral, Jason Lambert, Jason Miller)

Forecast:

When it comes to landslide favorites, this fight takes the cake. Nate Marquardt will come in a huge favorite as he takes on former WEC MW Champion, Chael Sonnen. Marquardt is currently on a 3 fight win streak (Maia, Gouveia, Kampmann). All 3 of those victories came by way of KO. He is also black belt is BJJ. Marquardt trains with Greg Jackson’s team at Jackson’s MMA. The team features the likes of GSP, Rashad Evans, Keith Jardine, Joe Stevenson, Carlos Condit, Jon Jones, Clay Guida, and now Andrei Arlovski.

Chael Sonnen is coming off of a two fight win streak. His last victory was an upset over Yushin Okami. Sonnen looked his best in that fight. He beat Okami in the wrestling department for all 3 rounds to get the unanimous decision victory. Sonnen is a 2-time national collegiate wrestling champion, NCAA All-American, and a U.S. Olympic wrestling team alternate. He trains with Team Quest. They feature fighters like Dan Henderson, Matt Lindland, and Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou. Whoever wins this bout will be next in line to challenge either Anderson Silva or Vitor Belfort for the UFC MW Championship.

Keys to Victory:

This is another fight where wrestling will decide the victor. Chael Sonnen is a composed, intelligent MW fighter. Despite fan opinion, he is willing to implement and stick to a tragedy to get the victory. Don’t expect Sonnen to come out fists a-flying at Nate Marquardt. The game plan is obvious and simple in this fight. Sonnen needs to use his wrestling to get Nate on his back and keep him there. Marquardt has a ton of athleticism. Its going to be tricky taking him down. Sonnen needs to really try to disguise his takedown attempts if he doesn’t want to be greeted with a knee on his way in. He needs to shoot from angles. The single leg may prove more effective in this fight than the immediate double. If Sonnen can just grab hold of one leg, he can then use that position to get the takedown or work for the double.

The whole question surrounding this bout will be if Marquardt can avoid the takedowns. Sonnen is a relentless wrestler. He won’t give up on his attempts. Despite his improving standup game, Marquardt has a phenomenal ground game himself. He is a dynamic wrestler with extremely explosive outside shots. Nate should use good footwork to keep Sonnen’s shots on the outside. Sonnen’s shot isn’t as explosive as it is technical. From the outside, Nate will have an easier time shrugging the takedown attempts off. Nate’s standup is a lot better than Sonnen’s. While moving, he should continuously blast Sonnen and take advantage of the standup disparity. If the fight prolongs, it would be great to see Nate go for a shot of his own. If timed right, he should be able to get the fight to the ground pretty easily.

Nate needs to avoid getting sloppy in this fight. He shouldn’t go for any unnecessary highlight reel moves. A missed flying knee could end up with him on his back. He should also be careful when throwing kicks. As stated before, a single leg is all Sonnen needs to turn this fight into a technical wrestling match.

Prediction:

On paper, it doesn’t get any worse than this for Chael Sonnen. Nate Marquardt is faster, stronger, the better striker, and quite possibly the better grappler all-around. While Sonnen has better amatuer credentials, I believe Marquardt is the better MMA wrestler of the two. There is a big difference between Olympic/Amateur wrestling and MMA wrestling. Chael Sonnen is a really technical wrestler. He is also a slow wrestler. His shots doesn’t show any sort of explosiveness I believe would be needed to take a guy like Nate Marquardt down. Even worse, I don’t think Sonnen has the standup competence to disguise his shots in this fight. Look for Sonnen to get out pointed bad on the feet. He will come in and immediately look for takedowns. While relentless, he will fail attempt after attempt. One sloppy shot ends with Marquardt delivering a guillotine choke to end the fight via first round submission.

Demian Maia Vs. Dan Miller


Key Victories:

Maia (Chael Sonnen, Jason MacDonald, Nate Quarry, Ed Herman)
Miller (Jake Rosholt, Matt Horwich)

Forecast:

When we last saw Demian Maia, he was helplessly performing a Mortal Kombat-like, 360 air kick at the end of a Nate Marquardt cross. He has since unraveled the cobwebs and looks to get back on the winning track against Dan Miller. This is obviously a fight suited for Maia to emerge victorious in. Dan Miller is also a black belt in BJJ. If you are looking for sure-fire danger, sit in Demian Maia’s guard. The UFC could have given Maia anyone. They ended up choosing a guy who is coming off of a loss to an opponent Maia soundly defeated, who sports no significant KO stoppages, and who’s style coincides significantly with what Maia is best at. Can Dan Miller overcome the odds?

Keys to Victory:

You know you have scary BJJ when other black belts are treated as white belts when mentioned in comparison to you. Saying Demian Maia has “sick” BJJ is an understatement. His grappling credentials speak for themselves. He is a 2nd degree black belt with competition experience in ADCC, CBJJ, Pesada, and Pesado events. In ADCC (Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championship), he placed 1st in 2007 and 2nd in 2005 at 77kg-87kg weight division. All of Maia’s UFC victories have come by submission. 8 of his total 11 wins have ended in submission. With all of these stats, its obvious what Maia wants to do in this fight. Even though Miller boasts the better wrestling, it won’t matter to Maia.

Demian Maia wants Dan Miller in his guard. No sexual connotation intended. Maia needs to avoid getting blasted on his feet. Miller may not be known for his standup, but he could be forced into it in this fight. Maia needs to stay in his element. No more flying kick attempts. Use simple combinations and get this fight to the ground. Miller needs to avoid sitting in Maia’s guard. If he can get the better of the exchanges on the feet, he can utilize his superior wrestling to keep this fight standing up. Dan Miller is a black belt himself. If he somehow ends up in Maia’s guard, he needs to remain calm and look for a way out. There will of course be a feeling out process between the two. If Miller feels he is able to avoid the submissions in top control, this fight will bring a whole other meaning. Dan Miller has yet to be submitted in his MMA career. He has also yet to face a BJJ artist of the caliber of Demian Maia.

Prediction:

This fight doesn’t look good for Dan Miller. When it comes to BJJ, Demian Maia is a specimen in a world of his own. Dan Miller will unwisely go for the takedown in this fight. Maia will invite him in by pulling guard. It will all go downhill from there for Dan Miller as Maia locks in the triangle choke in the first round.

Matt “The Terror” Serra Vs. Frank “Twinkle Toes” Trigg

Key Victories:

Serra (Georges St. Pierre, Chris Lytle, Yves Edwards)
Trigg (Jason Miller, Kazuo Misaki)

Forecast:

This fight is being deemed as a “loser leaves town” fight. Really? Do we need to stoop to this level to promote a fight? Whoever wins this fight gets to rematch Matt Hughes inside a sixteen foot steel cage! For those unfamiliar with the professional wrestling lingo, a “loser leaves town” match is a literal concept. Whoever loses this fight will no longer fight in the UFC. Matt Serra is coming off back to back losses against Georges St. Pierre (1# WW and top 3 P4P fighter in the world) and Matt Hughes (Former #1 WW). Frank Trigg is coming off of a KO loss to Josh Koscheck (#4 WW). With the rumored implications surrounding this fight, you would think these two were dropping losses to UFC up and comers. But…like they say, the show must go on.

Keys to Victory:

Matt Serra may be small, but he has a lot of power in that little body of his. He needs to do all he can to keep this fight on the feet. Despite being a black belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie, Serra’s best chance of winning will be on the feet. Trigg’s chin holding up against a Serra haymaker is about as likely as Chael Sonnen beating Nate Marquardt (Yea…I went there). If Serra ends up on his back, he needs to compose himself and look for submissions. He doesn’t want to spend too much time on his back. Trigg would be more than happy to work from top position for all 3 rounds. If submission attempts are failing, Serra needs to scramble and fight to get back to his feet. He should try to make Frank Trigg brawl with him. Serra has the hands and chin to win that sort of fight.

Sporting a spotless, glass chin (due to excessive windexing), Frank Trigg needs to use his superior wrestling to control the pace of this fight. Even though Serra has the black belt, Trigg has the better takedowns and defense. He needs to slow the pace of this fight down considerably. Trigg should shoot for a takedown every time he sees an opening. He should also use his size advantage over Serra to push him up against the cage and work short strikes along with continued takedown attempts. For every second Serra has space on the feet, Trigg will be in danger. Trigg needs to keep his punches and combinations on the feet short and tight. He does not want to brawl with Serra.

Prediction:

All 7 of Frank Trigg’s losses have come by stoppage. 5 of those 7 were stopped in the first round. I expect everything to go according to schedule in this fight. Trigg is great at hyping a fight. Expect him to fall victim to his own hype. Trigg will come out aggressive and try to stand with Matt Serra. Look for Trigg’s Twinkly toes to go stiff as Serra ends his UFC stint by delivering a highlight worthy overhand right in the first round.

Mike “Quick” Swick Vs. Paulo Thiago

Key Victories:

Swick (Joe Riggs, David Loiseau, Josh Burkman, Marcus Davis)
Thiago (Josh Koscheck)

Forecast:

Ladies and Gentleman! It is official! Paulo Thiago has officially become American Kickboxing Academy’s new MMA groupie. Why? The guy is getting passed around AKA like a lit doobie at a Jimi Hendrix concert. After the unfortunate luck of knocking off a top contender in Josh Koscheck, Thiago was then matched up against Kos’s teammate, Jon Fitch. Considering Fitch was (and still is) ranked as the #2 Welterweight in the world, one would be naïve to assume that a reasonable match-up for a guy with only one fight in the UFC. In actuality, Paulo Thiago was slated to face Josh Koscheck in a rematch.

We all knew the Kos rematch was coming….but this soon? Kos ended up pulling out of this fight due to an injury attained during training. Could there be light at the end of the tunnel? May Paulo Thiago actually break away from fighting all of Kos’s vengeful teammates? When Dana announced this fight, the answer was obviously a resounding no. Paulo Thiago will do battle against AKA Welterweight, Mike Swick. While Swick is coming off of a decision loss to Dan Hardy (current #1 WW title contender), Thiago is coming off of a decision victory over Jacob Volkmann.

Keys to Victory:

Paulo Thiago will have the edge on the ground in this fight. He is a black belt in BJJ. He also trains at Black House which features world-renowned grapplers like the Nogueira brothers, Paulo Filho, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, and (sometimes) Demian Maia. 7 out 12 of Thiago’s victories have come by submission. As evident in his KO of Josh Koscheck, Thiago has shown a nasty uppercut to couple with his seemingly decent striking we haven’t seen much of yet. Black House is predominantly known for its pound for pound world class strikers, Anderson “The Spider” Silva and Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. If not great, Thiago’s standup should be competent.

As of late, Swick’s game plan has been pressing his opponents up against the cage and working short strikes. Thiago needs to control the clinch when Swick moves in. Don’t just lay against the cage. He needs to circle away from the cage, work takedowns, or work throws. If Swick’s head is down and exposed when they separate, Thiago may have an opportunity to land that uppercut. Swick has been hurt on several occasions standing. He isn’t a heavy-handed fighter, and he throws combinations in bunches. As long as Thiago doesn’t get sloppy or lazy, he should be just fine on the feet. Thiago should mix takedown attempts with his standup efforts. BJJ is his bread and butter. Why waste a chance to make Swick fight his fight?

Unless he is 100% sure (which is never the case in MMA), Mike Swick needs to forget the “Swickotine” in this fight. He does not want to turn this into a BJJ match with Paulo Thiago. Swick needs to use his reach (something he rarely does) and keep Thiago at bay with his jab and straight. One, two combinations should suffice until he sees an even bigger opening to add more. If this fight goes to the clinch, Swick will need to assess the position to find out whether or not he’s comfortable. If so, he can go back to securing underhooks and working those short strikes he’s become so fond of. Either way, he needs to be weary of the takedown.

Prediction:

Every card is ripe for one potential upset of the night. This may be that fight at UFC 109. Mike Swick will come out quicker and more explosive than usual. The loss to Dan Hardy may be his undoing in this fight. He will catch Paulo Thiago with some good shots. When he senses blood, he will move in and start to flurry. Thiago will then completely floor Swick with a thunderous haymaker in the first round. This is a very, very bold scenario. If things come to fruition, maybe Joe Silva (UFC Matchmaker) will cut Thiago some slack. Despite looking like a disgruntled Tom Cruise, Paulo Thiago a good prospect.


Official Picks

Randy Couture Wins By Round 2 TKO Stoppage

Nate Marquardt Wins By Round 1 Submission

Demian Maia Wins By Round 1 Submission

Matt Serra Wins By Round KO

Paulo Thiago Wins By Round 1 KO



Fight of the Night: Randy Couture Vs. Mark Coleman

Knockout of the Night: Matt Serra Over Frank Trigg

Submission of the Night: Demian Maia Over Dan Miller

(I do not take any credit for any of the pictures used in this blog)