Super Bowl XLIV: Why the Indianapolis Colts Are Guaranteed To Win

Forget about trends and rankings. They don't do a whole lot of good in helping us predict Super Bowl winners.

Just look back to Super Bowl XXIV, when Joe Montana and Jerry Rice dominated the league's top scoring defense, the Denver Broncos, in the most lop-sided Super Bowl in NFL History, winning 55-10.

We've even seen the regular season trends backfire on our predictions and game analysis in these very playoffs, as Minnesota's league-leading pass rush failed to rattle Drew Brees, which gave the Saints an advantage that many experts didn't necessarily expect them to have.

While rankings can help us assess how a team may match up or perform in different areas on the field, it's ultimately anyone's guess as to which team will show up in the Super Bowl: the dominant offense/defense that ruled the regular season, or the team that somehow found it's way through the playoffs, and is on its last leg?

While both Indianapolis and New Orleans have the tools (and elite quarterbacks) to give us one of the best Super Bowls ever seen, there is also the possibility that we see exactly what we saw in that 49ers/Broncos match back in 1990.

For everything to go as planned (for either team) the following needs to happen:

Why the Colts Offense Has Nothing to Worry About If...

That aggressive Saints defense stays grounded, and Peyton Manning's body stays intact. There's no denying the late-hits New Orleans delivered (and got away with) in the NFC Championship two weeks ago, and even if it's not deemed as "dirty" football, Gregg Williams' scheme is still one to be feared.

Especially when the back-up to Manning is Curtis Painter.

However, there's more to "getting Manning going" or just protecting the quarterback. In order for the Colts to operate how they normally like to, they'll need a running game that was very average during the regular season to break-out and have a huge game.

And against a Saints run defense that allowed a 70-yard touchdown run by Tim Hightower and gave up 100+ yards and three scores to Adrian Peterson, the Colts average rush offense could come to Manning's aid a lot more than people think.

If the run game can support the passing game enough to keep the Saints defense guessing, there's little doubt that Manning will be able to pick apart the Saints over-rated pass defense.

New Orleans has two very underrated cornerbacks, and Darren Sharper could easily give Manning problems, but there's also little doubt that Dallas Clark and slot-man Austin Collie will give the Saints linebackers and nickel corners fits.

The Saints just don't have the man-power to stop all of the Colts' offensive weapons, and judging by their most recent history, don't even have the necessary players on defense to shut-down the Colts main offensive weakness, their ground game.

There's no doubt the Saints will come after Manning early and often, much like they did against Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. However, there's one thing Manning has that Warner and Favre (and even Drew Brees) didn't have, and that's elite pass protection.

Actually, it's beyond elite. Manning was sacked just 10 times in all of 2009. And after facing solid (if not elite) defenses in the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets in his last two games, Manning has come away, sacked just four times.

Really, it's simple: Peyton Manning and his offense have carried the Colts all season, and despite being dubbed "over-rated" and soft by many writers (including myself at one point), they just have a better resolve than any other team in the league.

It's not so much that they have an abundance of weapons, more that they simply know exactly where each weapon needs to be, and how to take advantage of any situation on offense.

But, as we've learned in so many games over the years, it's not just about the offense.

The Colts Defense Will Get the Job Done If...

They get to Drew Brees. That's it. If they get to Brees, it's "game over for the Saints, who will be playing catch-up with the smartest quarterback in the league, and a team that knows how to comeback and prevent comebacks just as well as the Saints.

Of course, it's true, "getting to Brees" is no easy task, just as the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings found out. This is especially true when you note that Brees had been sacked just 20 times in the regular season, while getting taken down just once in the post-season.

However, unlike the spotty Cardinals pass defense and the very beatable (although surprisingly effective) Vikings pass defense, the the Colts present a true ability to shutdown the opposition through the air.

To put it mildly, Drew Brees could be in store for a weak-up call. His offensive line has gotten past some good (if not great) defenses, but possibly none as complete at rushing the passer and defending the pass as these Indianapolis Colts.

While the stats haven't been there all season (mostly due to injuries), the ability to stifle opposing offenses through the air has been evident in two games in the playoffs.

Just look at how difficult of a time Joe Flacco had in the divisional round, and how effectively the Colts defense swallowed up Mark Sanchez in the entire second half of the AFC Championship game.

Of course, a huge factor that will undoubtedly play into how well the Colts defense performs will be the availability of star defensive end Dwight Freeney.

Despite missing practices all week, Freeney remains a game-tie decision, and will likely be the most sought-after news piece leading up to the big game.

Call us crazy, but this is the Super Bowl, and we see Freeney toughing it out and playing.

Seriously, the Colts Are Going to Win

They have the best quarterback in the NFL, with the best offensive line, and arguably the best offensive weapons at his disposal.

That, and he has a decent set of running backs going up against a very average (if not bad) New Orleans run defense.

With all the basics falling in Indy's favor, all thats' left to think about is the "magic" factor.

The Colts have either come from behind or held on to close eight close games this season, and if the game comes down to the final minutes and they have the ball, with or without the lead, it'd be foolish to start betting against them with all the chips up for the taking.

Oh, yeah, and we can't remember the last time the Colts lost a game this year that Peyton Manning finished. That's right, it's because they haven't.

Colts 37, Saints 33.

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