Super Bowl XLIV: Which Team Would Be Hurt by Rain the Most?

In February of 2007, common logic said that any inconvenient weather conditions would undoubtedly benefit the NFC Champion Chicago Bears over the ringless Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

As is the case in the NFL, common sense was dethroned. The Bears turned the ball over five times and the league’s best defense allowed 22 points (there was an interception for a touchdown) to Peyton Manning throwing a slick ball.

The rain that day caught many involved with the game by surprise. Regardless of what the forecast calls for this Sunday, which is tentatively a moisture-less evening, the Saints and Colts will be preparing for everything but snow. Super Bowl XLI served as an alarm for all teams, especially high-powered offenses to be prepared for any circumstance in the Super Bowl.

This season, the Saints participated in an unheard 14-of-18 games in a dome or in Florida, and two of the other four were in Philadelphia and Buffalo during September.

Somehow, the Colts managed to one-up that by playing 15 games in a dome or in Florida.

At this point, each team is unprepared to face even a five-MPH gust, much less pouring rains.

So who would have the advantage if the heavens opened up for the second Super Bowl in four years? 

If it rains, it would be expected that each team would attempt to establish the run to avoid throwing around a slick ball. Boasting the league’s sixth-best rushing attack in 2009, the Saints would appear to have the advantage. This is further accentuated considering 31 other teams ran more effectively than the Colts.

However, granting the Saints the advantage would be shortsighted. Unless the field gets destroyed to the likes of a Mud Bowl sequel, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning will be throwing the ball. In this case, Manning would be much more reliable than Brees.

Why? Brees’s game is predicated off of timing and efficiency. While he is undoubtedly a very smart quarterback at the line of scrimmage, his success depends on his ability to squeeze the ball into spaces. Manning is not only equally as skilled as making precise passes, but he makes it easier for himself through his ability to gauge what defenses are doing before he snaps the ball.

If the ball is slick and the field is sloppy, it’s unlikely for receivers and quarterbacks to have their timing. Due to that, the quarterback will have to compensate by putting his receivers (who I believe are similarly talented on both teams) in the position to get open.

In that spot, which quarterback do you trust more, Manning or Brees? The answer’s Manning, though I’m not going to rule out Brees in terms of having success in bad weather.

Defensively is where it gets interesting. In Super Bowl XLII many were predicting that the Patriots would have success on the University of Phoenix Stadium’s “fast track” turf. In reality, it was the Giants defensive front that benefited the most, getting outstanding jumps all game long.

If the field is messy, this would help the Saints neutralize the pass-rushing abilities of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. Though Freeney won’t even be 100 percent by game time, poor footing will hurt his performance even more. Mathis’s game is similar to Freeney’s, which could lead to struggles along the Colts front.

Like it or not, sometimes the biggest game of the year is not entirely neutral. We saw that three years ago, and we saw one team rise to the occasion and the other falter. Although slim, the mere possibility of rain should have both teams leery and prepared.