Speed To Burn: Five Late-Round Fantasy Baseball Options for Steals
We’ve been talking about it a lot in the past week, especially in deciding whether to draft someone like Carl Crawford early on or waiting on speed until the later rounds (after Round 18). This year, it seems like you can easily find some stolen base options late in your draft, doesn’t it?
Let’s take a look at five players that are worth looking at whom I am projecting to have at least 30 stolen bases for in 2010:
Juan Pierre - Chicago White Sox
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He is finally freed from being a part-time player with the Dodgers. He now slides into the leadoff spot for the White Sox, where he has the potential to thrive. He has a ton of speed, which he has shown off at every opportunity. Over the past two seasons, he’s has 755 AB, stealing a total of 70 bases.
From 2001-2007, when he was playing everyday, his worst year saw him steal 45 bases. He’s stolen 57 or more bases (best year was 65) four different times.
Let’s not be mistaken, however, because Pierre has plenty of shortcomings. If you want to get a little bit of power from your speed option, he’s not your man. His career high is three home runs.
He should score plenty of runs, however, and could easily set a career high in RBI (currently his high is 55, but he has spent his entire career in the NL where the opportunities are fewer for leadoff hitters).
Still, if you are in need of pure speed in the late rounds of your draft, is there a better, more sure option?
Everth Cabrera - San Diego Padres
We’ve spoken about him in great deal in the past (click here to view), so I’m not going to go into great detail on him again. What you need to know is that he is guaranteed a spot hitting atop the Padres lineup and he has as much speed as anyone in the game.
He stole 73 bases at Single-A in ‘08 before being selected in the Rule Five draft and being forced to spend the ‘09 season in the Major Leagues. Injuries limited him, but he still managed to steal 25 bases in just 377 AB.
He’s not going to hit for power or drive in many runs, but with elite speed, a decent average (projected for .270) and the ability to score runs, he’s certainly worth the flyer.
Alcides Escobar - Milwaukee Brewers
He has tremendous speed (42 SB in 52 attempts at Triple-A in ‘09), but there are more questions surrounding him then Cabrera.
First of all, where will he hit in the lineup? Will the Brewers continue to utilize Rickie Weeks at the top, when he’s actually healthy? That would relegate Escobar to likely hitting eighth, limiting his opportunities.
Will the Brewers even let him run? Since 2005 the team leader has just 25 SB in a season (Rickie Weeks in 2007). It’s not their game, so it’ll be interesting to see if they opt to turn him loose or not.
As we’ve already discussed (click here to view) he does have elite speed, so he is certainly worth the flyer, but there are safer options available for stolen bases.
Dexter Fowler - Colorado Rockies
The question isn’t about Fowler’s ability, but his playing time, as the Rockies have five outfielders vying for just three spots. Still, having stolen 27 bases in just 433 at-bats in ‘09, it’s hard to imagine him not getting enough at-bats to make an impact.
Like the other players on this list, he has little power (best season was nine home runs at Double-A in ‘08), but that’s not what you are looking for. It’s the stolen bases, which you also should be sure to temper your expectations on. While he stole 43 in ‘06 at Single-A, he had just 20 each of the next two seasons (245 AB at Single-A and 421 AB at Double-A).
His upside may not be quite as high as someone like Pierre or Cabrera, but he certainly has the ability to chip in late in your draft at an extremely low cost.
Drew Stubbs - Cincinnati Reds
Don’t be misled by his power outburst upon being recalled (eight home runs in 180 AB), because it’s just not the type of player he is. Prior to joining the Reds, he had hit just three home runs in 411 AB at Triple-A.
What’s important is his speed. He had 46 stolen bases at Triple-A, before adding another 10 with the Reds.
He should get the opportunity to hit atop the Reds lineup and with Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips waiting to drive him in, should score a fair share of runs. He strikes out too much to post an elite average, but that’s easy to overlook. You are taking him for the stolen bases, which he should have plenty of opportunity to accumulate.
What are your thoughts on these players? Which would you target? Is there anyone else you are focusing on late?
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