Size Him Right: Grady Sizemore Is Not a Top-Five Fantasy Outfielder

Eric StashinFeb 3, 2010

How comfortable are you drafting Grady Sizemore? Do you believe in his 2008 breakout, where he hit .268 with 33 HR, 90 RBI, 101 R and 38 SB? Keep in mind that, in that season, he set career highs in home runs, RBI, and SB, numbers that he was nowhere near reaching in 2009, even if he hadn’t missed time:

436 At-Bats
.248 Batting Average (108 Hits)
18 Home Runs
64 RBI
73 Runs
13 Stolen Bases
.343 On Base Percentage
.445 Slugging Percentage
.276 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The biggest knock against Sizemore, which is an extremely legitimate one, is his batting average. While the .248 is an extreme, Sizemore is not notorious for hitting for a high average. His career mark is .275 and his prior to years were:

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2007 - .277 in 628 AB
2008 - .268 in 634 AB

Those are averages that aren’t going to kill you, but they certainly wouldn’t help you either, would they? For a high round draft choice, I would like to at least have the potential for a helpful average, but with a strikeout rate consistently over 20 percent (22.2 percent for his career and his best mark is 20.5 percent), it’s just not there.

He hits too many balls in the air to maintain a good BABIP without getting extremely lucky. Over the past four seasons he’s posted flyball rates of 46.9%, 46.6%, 45.7% and 47.6%. That’s just not conducive to balls dropping in.

That does lead to power, but the 33 HR barrage he posted in 2008 sticks out like a sore thumb. Look at his HR/FB rates:

2006 - 11.8%
2007 - 11.1%
2008 - 14.5%
2009 - 11.12%

Which of those numbers doesn’t belong? Drafting him expecting a repeat of his 2008 home run campaign would be a huge mistake. He’s just not likely to get there.

The same thing could be said about his 2008 RBI output, though if he drops to third in the order, he could come close. The problem is, there’s no guarantee he stays there all season long (or even gets a look there at all).

What if Michael Brantley is the leadoff hitter in April and gets off to a slow start? Would it surprise anyone to see the team shift Sizemore back to the leadoff spot, limiting his RBI opportunities? Keep that in mind.

What he does bring to the table is speed. From 2005-2008 he put up four consecutive 100 run seasons, including years of 134 and 118. Those are elite numbers and while the Indians offense may not be what it once was, there are still plenty of bats waiting in the wings to bring him across the plate. Guys like Shin-Soo Choo and Jhonny Peralta are going to get their RBI, meaning Sizemore should score plenty of runs once again.

He also should get his stolen bases. While 38 was his career high, he’s also posted a year of 33 (2007). The Indians clearly are not a team that is going to focus on the longball, so seeing them give players like Sizemore, even if hitting in the middle of the lineup, the green light should not be very surprising.

Let’s put that all together and take a look at what I’d project for him in 2010:

.270 (162-600), 25 HR, 75 RBI, 100 R, 30 SB, .311 BABIP, .373 OBP, .424 SLG

One problem is that everything I just said is dependent on Sizemore’s health. He had surgery on his elbow last season, so you have to be concerned about his ability to recover.

I also would not value him as a potential 30/30 player, because I just don’t see the power being there. Throw in some concerns about the average and Sizemore falls from being a Top Five outfielder on draft day. He’s a borderline second round selection (though, one I’d avoid), but I’d be much more comfortable getting him early on in round number three.

What about you? How good do you see Sizemore being in 2010? Where would you target him?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here .

Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including: