Liver's NFL Week 9 Picks: Colts Straight-Up Over the Patriots

This Sunday promises to be an excellent example of why there's nothing better than football in November.

Great games all day, hopefully to be shared with good drink and good friends—you just don't get that kind of excitement and communal bonding with baseball or basketball.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. The Liver's picks are to cover the spread, not straight-up winners.

Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Michael Vick, Bill Belichick, Roger Goodell, and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks. 

Last week's record: 6-7 

2007 record against the spread: 51-58-7

Anyone who wants to criticize the Liver’s record is welcome to submit his own picks on the site each week and see if he can do better.

If not, kiss my drunk ass and grow a pair.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

San Diego at Minnesota (+7)

The Chargers seem to be getting their swagger back after a rough start to the season. Adding Chris Chambers doesn’t hurt.

What is it with Miami giving away their good players to other teams for cigarettes and bubble gum?

Minnesota, meanwhile, is on the clock for next year.

Pick: San Diego

 

Jacksonville (+3) at New Orleans

Speaking of rebounds, New Orleans has won three in a row after an 0-4 start and is back in the NFC South race. Only in the NFC.

Jacksonville shocked a few observers, including me, by winning in Tampa last week without David Garrard. The Jags D caused Jeff Garcia all sorts of problems.

Pick: New Orleans

 

Washington at N.Y. Jets (+3 1⁄2)

If I’m the Pigs, I put last week aside and focus on beating the hell out of this awful Jets team.

Chad Pennington is probably finished after being demoted in favor of Kellen Clemens. Washington has been struck by injury bug.

Pick: N.Y. Jets

 

Arizona (+3 1⁄2) at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay needs to have a bounce-back game after losing one they should've won last weekend. Arizona is coming off a bye...but how much does Kurt Warner have left?

Pick: Tampa Bay

 

San Francisco (+3) at Atlanta

Think this is a good time for a nap before the Colts-Patriots game starts?

San Francisco should take advantage of a team that has basically imploded. You have to feel bad for Bobby Petrino. Think he saw this coming when he signed on for the job?

Pick: Atlanta

 

Cincinnati at Buffalo (+1)

Cincinnati is just about done. If they gave a crap about defense, they would be one of the better teams in the AFC.

Buffalo has been done since the Music City Miracle in 2000.

Pick: Cincinnati

 

Denver (+3) at Detroit

Detroit should look to pound the ball against the porous Denver run D. Unfortunately for the Lions, they're in the same division as the 6-1 Packers—so they need to keep winning to have a shot at the postseason.

Interesting stat: The Detroit defense has caused a league-high 20 turnovers. If they get more consistent, the Lions could be a scary matchup for any team in the NFC playoffs.

Pick: Detroit

 

Carolina (+4) at Tennessee

Carolina is learning the Vinny rule the hard way. Believe me—they’re better off with Concussion Carr.

Tennessee didn’t play well but still came away with a win against Oakland. At this point, the Titans have more to lose than the Panthers, as they have to keep winning to get the AFC Wild Card.

Carolina can still afford a few loses here and there, as their division stinks and no one is running away with it.

Pick: Carolina

 

Green Bay (+2) at Kansas City

Green bay has to be the most mystifying 6-1 team I’ve ever seen.

The Packers really aren’t that good on offense, but they find ways to win. That said, going to Kansas City in November is no easy task—and the Chiefs have been squeaking out ugly wins of their own despite shortcomings on offense.

Pick: KC

 

Seattle (+1 1⁄2) at Cleveland

Please Seattle—don’t let this team beat you. The Cowboys needs a good draft pick.

Think Brady Quinn feels like a man without a country these days? Everyone raise his hand who thought the Browns would only be a game off the division lead in Week Nine.

Seattle is clinging to a one-game lead over the Cardinals in the NFC West. A win would give the 'Hawks some much-needed breathing room.

Pick: Seattle

 

Houston (+3) at Oakland

Both teams have performed better than expected, but neither is ready to start talking playoffs.

Houston has had some injury problems (no Matt Schaub this week), while Oakland has lost three close games and can’t find any consistency on either side of the ball.

Pick: Houston

 

New England at Indianapolis (+5)

At last—the ultimate matchup of Good and Evil.

Funny how everyone knows which is which without being told.

The Super Bowl champion Colts are class personified. Peyton Manning is a simple guy—a football savant who couldn’t even work a laundry machine out of college and has been married to his high school sweetheart for years.

For all his endorsement deals, Manning keeps a low profile, and you don’t see him on gossip pages.

Tom Brady? He's out impregnating actresses and supermodels.

Colts coach Tony Dungy is a warm, accessible, down-to-Earth man. He's good with the media, and has proven you can win without cursing or yelling at your players.

Bill Belichick has the class one might find in a scum swamp—and I’m being nice.

The Pats head man is arrogant and dishonest, and he frequently snaps at people in public. He's the epitome of a bully coach (think Phil Jackson with zero humor and less personality) who believes himself to be above the law.

Videogate exposed Belichick for the cheater he is, and he obviously has some childhood complex that compels him to run up scores against other teams.

Hubris has a way of coming back to bite a person—and the story for Belichick will be no different.

Everyone, including Vegas, is assuming the Colts will lose big AT HOME. Perhaps they will. However, the five-point line (which is really eight points) is an insult.

That will be all the motivation the Colts need.

Look for Bob Sanders to anchor the Indy defense and inflict as much bodily pain as possible on Brady. Too bad Belichick couldn’t be out there knocking heads.

But as Paul Crewe said to Warden Hazen, “You never had the guts to begin with.”

If the Patriots win, so be it. If they lose, I want to see all these Faketriot bandwagoners back in the gutter they crawled out of.

I’m calling this one straight-up and against the spread...

Pick: Colts

 

Dallas at Philadelphia (+3)

Ahh—the yearly trip to Filthy, for a visit with the most disgusting, classless fans in the league.

I’m sure they’ve forgotten all about that T.O. guy and will be well-behaved.

The Cowboys pass rush needs to pressure Donovan McNabb. He's not as mobile as he used to be, and the Eagles offensive line is on pace to give up 52 sacks this year.

It would also help to be aware of Brian Westbrook’s whereabouts at all times, as he can single-handedly change a game.

Where is Andy Reid’s mind going to be? When you have family turmoil like he does, it must be difficult—if not impossible—to focus on football.

The judge in Reid's sons’ cases called the coach's house a “drug emporium.” Funny, that’s how the Liver’s friends refer to his place.

The Cowboys need to protect Tony Romo, as the Eagles are averaging 3.5 sacks per game.

Even with Wade Phillips’s aggressive blitz packages, the Cowboys pass rush has been nonexistent. 18 sacks through seven games? That’s like Joker’s war face at the beginning of Full Metal Jacket.

As Gunny Hartman would say, “You don’t scare me. Work on it.”

Pick: Dallas

 

Monday, November 5, 2007

Baltimore (+9 1⁄2 ) at Pittsburgh

The Ravens come off of a much-needed bye, and need their offense to play well against their old divisional nemesis.

This will likely be one of those games that's extremely boring to watch offensively but features plenty of hard hits. These two teams hate each other.

Pick: Baltimore