Numbers Game: Why Colts-Patriots Will Be Closer Than You Think

CAUTION: If you hate stats and would rather just talk smack while ignoring the facts, you should probably stop reading now. 

If you listen to the majority of football fans, it's already over.

The outcome of the biggest regular season professional football game EVER is a foregone conclusion.

The Colts are no match for the high-powered Patriots, the conventional wisdom goes. Tom Brady has more offensive weapons than Hillary Clinton has accents.

The Pats, they say, will run up the score—AGAIN—on the hapless Colts and their undermanned, overmatched defense.

While this opinion is popular—and, in some respects, completely plausible—it's unlikely to bear out.

If you look closely at these two teams, you find there isn't really much of a difference.

The media's fawning over the New England Patriots is well-deserved. They're on pace to break all kinds of offensive records, many of which had been set by the Colts.

But the stats seem to say that the Colts—who are winning games with methodical dominance—have been just as good.

For two weeks, I've compiled statistics from various sources to compare the two teams, and the results are astonishing.

Before I go any further, I'd like to make it very clear that I am a lifelong Colts fan. As such, there will obviously be a little bias in my arguments.

But all my assertions are backed up by the facts.

And so... 

First, I took the two teams' statistical rankings in basic offensive and defensive categories through Week Eight, and compared them in these charts:  

Offense
 

	NEW ENGLAND	INDIANAPOLIS
Points/Game	1st (41.4)	3rd (32.0)
Passing Yards/Game	1st (303.8)	6th (258.7)
Rushing Yards/Game	8th (135.8)	5th (140.3)
Total Yards/Game	1st (439.5)	3rd (399)

Defense
 

	NEW ENGLAND	INDIANAPOLIS
Points Allowed/Game	5th (15.9)	2nd (14.6)
Passing Yards Allowed/Game	5th (181.5)	1st (165.4)
Rushing Yards Allowed/Game	5th (87.0)	13th (107.4)
Total Yards Allowed/Game	3rd (268.5)	4th (272.9)

On the offensive side of the ball, New England clearly has the edge in every category except rushing. Like I said earlier, the Pats' offense is on pace to be one of the best ever.

Defensively, Indy looks to have the better unit, although the Colts don't seem to be great at stopping the run.

That said, it's important to note that the Colts face about six more rushing attempts per game than the Patriots. The yards allowed per rush for both teams is about even.

Of course, much has been made about the quality of opponents the two teams have faced. After some more research, I made another pair of charts comparing the statistical rankings of the Pats' and Colts' opponents, as well as the won-loss records of each team:

New England Opponents
 

Team	Record	Total Off	Scoring Off	Total Def	Scoring Def
NYJ	1-7	30th	26th	29th	26th
SD	4-3	19th	8th	18th	12th
BUF	3-4	31st	29th	30th	13th
CIN	2-5	5th	6th	31st	31st
CLE	4-3	6th	4th	32nd	30th
DAL	6-1	2nd	2nd	6th	21st
MIA	0-8	18th	13th	24th	32nd
WAS	4-3	28th	22nd	12th	16th
Totals/Averages	24-34 (.414)	17th	14th	23rd	23rd

Indianapolis Opponents

Team	Record	Total Off	Scoring Off	Total Def	Scoring Def
NO	3-4	12th	18th	19th	23rd
TEN	5-2	22nd	14th	5th	7th
HOU	3-5	10th	10th	17th	27th
DEN	3-4	7th	27th	25th	28th
TB	4-3	17th	23rd	8th	9th
JAC	5-3	20th	19th	15th	4th
CAR	4-3	21st	21st	21st	17th
Totals/Averages	27-24 (.529)	16th	19th	16th	16th

The obvious fact is that the Patriots have played a far easier schedule than the Colts so far. This isn't a slam on New England—it's simply a word of caution that the "All-Powerful Pats" may be excelling in part because of the inferior quality of their opposition.

In theory, the Colts could be putting up gaudy offensive numbers if they had the Pats' schedule. The statistics, then, seem to argue for a pretty level playing this weekend.

Yes, I'm well aware that playing New England will bring down a team's defensive ranking. But have you seen Cleveland, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Miami, and the Jets play this year?

They're clearly awful on defense—no matter who they play.

Some critics may lash out at me for being "biased." My rebuttal is the charts, the numbers, the facts.

They can speak for themselves.

It will truly be a clash of titans when these two teams meet on Sunday. I for one can't wait.