Gambling on the Games: NFL Total Wins

As Art Land once said,  when Mars at long last attacked Vegas, "Even in a time of intergalactic crisis, people still want to roll them bones."

So forget politics, ignore Imus, put away the Pacman, and bet a wager a player can enjoy all season long.

It makes great bar banter to beg and babble about how you carefully analyzed your team's weekly opponents, and then back it up with your hard-earned dough.

So let's roll Cincinnati Kids, Vegas Vics, and Lefty Rosenthals....

The over/under wager on an NFL team's total wins. It's a bet one can root for weekly, all season long.

Well, that is if one doesn't bet the over on Detroit (6.5) on the promise of Matt Millen's Lions finally roaring, and Jon Kitna being the second coming of, albeit a soda-pop soaked version, whiskey-fueled Bobby Layne, then see them suddenly collapse again.

If the Lions roll out to 0-10, Kitna throws three interceptions for every TD, the defense gives up 38-points a game, and Ford Motors is sold to the Saudis at a deep discount, then your bet ends on Week 10, as the Motown Meows can't make it to seven wins. And rumors of the Los Angles Lions begin to fly.

Yeah, Bobby Layne was a bit better then Johnny Kitna.

The totals are calculated by professionals, so generally, except in the cause of catastrophic injuries or a string of key players arrested for felonies, the numbers are accurate. That is, a player will be watching his wager into the waning weeks of the season.

So let's roll dem bones to feed that jones...

Some see the Washington Redskins as a solid playoff team, as they are returning all of their starters.

My crystal ball sees an aging defense, a fragile running back, a young quarterback learning a new system, and freshmen that are still adjusting to the NFL coaching staff.

All that and they play in a tough division with no weak sisters. Eight is the magic number of wins for the 'Skins, and I say lay the $140 to win $100 that the 'Skins don't skate above eight.

If the wager lands on eight exactly, it's a push. A no play. Money returned. Most folks favor the under on this Redskin bet, so that's why one has to lay the extra vig, the $14 to return $10, on this particular one.

The 'Skins have tough games against the New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Seattle Seahawks. No sure wins there.

The Chicago Bears have been blasted in the offseason about the sorry wreck that is their pitiful offense. Likely a rookie left tackle, a rookie running back not adept at blitz pickup, the worst set of wide outs in the league, and the sad state of their quarterbacks will all make the Bears' future look bleak.

The Bears' defense and special teams should be good. The rest of NFC North has untested or weak players at quarterback, so their defense might be enough to steal some games. Their over/under is eight wins.

Can the Bears steal enough wins with some Hester luck and turnovers?

The Colts will crush them Week One. Lay the 10 points with the Colts early and often.

The Jacksonville Jaguars should also easily cage the punchless Bears.

But the Bears also play the Atlanta Falcons and St. Louis Rams, the two worst teams in the league. The Bears-Tennessee Titan matchup will be an ugly, low-scoring toss up. Make a mental note to bet the gameday under in the Bears-Titans matchup, even if it's in the 20s.

The Eagles, Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers will all be short favorites or else pick 'em when playing the Bears.

So it comes down to the key divisional games. The Vikings raided the Bears for their best offense player in Bernard Berrian. They added sackmaster Jared Allen, who will line up over the Bears' rookie tackle. Even with a weak Viking quarterback in Tarvaris Jackson, I see a Minnesota sweep, due to the overall quality of their lines and Adrian Peterson.

Even if the Bears split with the Lions and Packers, I don't see them making the eight wins with that offensive offense. Lay the $120 to $100 on the Bears not winning nine games.

The improved Minnesota Vikings are also at eight wins. They are an emerging squad, with one of the most talented offensive and defensive lines in the league, and the best young player in running back Adrian Peterson.

The Vikings only Achilles heel is their weakness at quarterback. But I roll the bones on the big boys on the lines beating up the Bears, Lions, and Packers.

And Atlanta, Arizona, Carolina, Tampa, and Houston, putting them well over the eight wins. Lay the $130 to win $100 on the Vikings ravaging the NFC. Only T Jackson throwing interceptions and creating eight-man defensive fronts for Peterson can stop them from sailing into the playoffs.

What about the always good, but not quite Super Bowl good, Jacksonville Jaguars? 10.5 wins seems high for a team that plays the Indianapolis Colts twice, and always seems to drop a game or two it should win.

The Jags play both the NFC North and the AFC North. On a hunch, I'll wager against a conservative coach with a rebuilt defense.

Lay the $135 to win $100 and say the Jags don't make eleven wins. It will be a wager one will be watching late into the season, as the Jags are solid and should get nine or ten wins.

The Oakland Raiders total is a lowly six. The Raiders have some beatable teams on the docket, with the Kansas City Chiefs twice, Buffalo Bills, the lowly Atlanta Falcons, the New York Jets, Houston Texans, and the rebuilding Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins.

Can they split with the despised Denver Broncos?

I'd lay the $140 to win a $100 on the over. Even if they hit six wins, it's a push.  I peg 'em with wins over Atlanta, Miami, Baltimore, KC at home, and hope to steal two from the Jets, Texans, Broncos, Bills, Carolina, and Tampa Bay.

It will be a near thing for Raider backers, with Lane Kiffin's end always looming and a sorry offensive line. So, a minor play will keep the blood pressure low.

The Super Bowl champion New York Giants are set at nine wins. The New England Patriots stand at 12.5. No real feel on those two.

Parity makes this prop tougher. The old maxim that on any given Sunday the poorest team can beat the best team is especially true in the NFL. 

That's what the league and the networks wanted, and that's exactly what they got. So enjoy the games with a wager that can be enjoyed, or anguished about, every week of the season.

Now, the first coach fired prop....

Happy Hunting!

Roll dem old bones....