In the AFC Wildcard Race, 9-7 Is the New 10-6

What a difference a few weeks can make.  From midseason (weeks 8/9/10) stretching through to the three-quarter mark (weeks 12/13) it appeared that any team would need at least a 10-6 record to be able to secure a wild card seeding and a playoff berth.

Jacksonville and Denver had the inside tracks to both seeds with 8-4 and 7-5 records, respectively.  Three straight losses to each team have now confused the race.  Neither team now holds a playoff seed—those wild card leads now belong to Baltimore and the New York Jets, two teams thought to have lost just enough games to be out of contention not too long ago.

They are not the only teams to appear resurrected.  In addition to the Jacksonville, New York, and Denver, 8-7 records were also earned by Pittsburgh and Houston after each won against tough opponents.

Near rebirths of two other teams were thwarted in week 16, with Tennessee and Miami both falling to 7-8 after overcoming starts that had been considered a death knell for each.  These two added to the picture gives the AFC eight teams within one game of .500.

Tennessee’s 0-6 start was nearly overcome thanks to a 7-1 stretch that paired with several other teams tumbling.  Their bid at an unlikely playoff berth was thwarted by scheduling however, as the team ran into both the No. 1 (Indianapolis) and No. 2 (San Diego) seeds in the AFC.

Miami overcame injured reserve appearances to starting quarterback Chad Pennington and starting running back (and wildcat orchestrator) Ronnie Brown, as well as a slow start (0-3 and 2-4) to push for not only a wild card berth, but to put a brief scare into New England in the divisional race.  In a bid for playoff opportunity head-to-head with Houston, the Texans this week came away the winner to end Miami’s bid.

Now the best record an AFC wild card team can hope for is 9-7.  It is also a distinct possibility that an 8-8 team might just earn a wild card.  The NFL wanted parity, and there it is in action.  Whether it speaks to the great balance of the league or to the poor consistency of the teams in question can be debated.

Four of the five 8-7 teams had suffered a key loss during the season that had appeared to cement a playoff view from their respective couches.  The only exception, Denver, had started the season 6-0 before stumbling the rest of the way during a 2-7 stretch. 

They had appeared to regain some balance, winning two straight over Kansas City and the New York Giants to recover back to 7-4.  Ultimately the rebound was short lived as the team has failed in all three games since.

Houston has been the inverse to Denver and Jacksonville, winning three straight to recover its playoff chances after a 5-7 record following a defeat to that Jacksonville Jaguars team in week 13.  The Texans powerhouse passing game has been able to wreak havoc outside its own division (6-2 in non-divisional games) but will have a tough fight on its hands.

The Houston Texans will go against 10-5 New England, who will very likely be fighting for its third seed in week 17.  The Patriots hold the tie-breaker over Cincinnati but also play seven hours ahead of the Bengals.  With no way to know that game, New England will have to play as if Cincinnati were the victor in its own match.  Holding few tie-breakers, Houston will have to hope for a few stumbles among to pull off a wild card berth.

Pittsburgh was much more consistent than Tennessee early, jumping out to a 6-2 record.  Like the Texans though, they have been ravaged by their own division, going 2-4.  Peculiar playcalling, key injuries, and fourth quarter letups have plagued the Steelers in the second half where they have gone 2-5.

During that 2-5 second half, all losses came back to back, a skid that included embarrassing losses to the Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cleveland Browns.  Strangely, the Steelers turnaround to revive its playoffs chances came against two teams that have nearly double the wins of those three aforementioned teams (18-12).

Pittsburgh has a solid match-up against Miami to attempt to secure a wild card, but also needs some help.  Like Houston, the Steelers match up very poorly in most tie-breaker situations and will look for Baltimore and New York especially to falter.

New York appeared dead at 4-6 following a 3-0 start.  Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez had crashed back down to rookie status by racking up an interception total that would have lead the league if Jay Cutler weren’t around.  The team’s lone win came against a lowly Raiders team still helmed by Jamarcus Russell, and optimism was ebbing.

The team rallied behind its league-leading defense and strong ground game, churning out a 4-1 record in the last five games to squeak into the sixth seed by way of the NFL’s tie-breaking procedure.  With a Sunday night game against Cincinnati to close the season, they will have the clearest view of any of these teams about their standing before their game.

Baltimore’s ascent from playoff outlier to fifth seed is perhaps the least dramatic of the team’s involved.  After a 3-0 start dipped to 3-3 the team has been fairly consistent.  They have not lost back to back and have only won two in a row once (thanks in part to those games going against the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears). 

The Ravens have not quite made good on early and pre-season predictions, which placed had them nearing the NFL’s upper echelon.  Instead they have put themselves into that fifth seeding as one of the few consistent teams in the batch.  They have steadily maintained a .500 pace while the others have landed there with dramatic winning and losing periods during roller coaster seasons.

Each team has taken a different path.  Each has reason for encouragement and worry.  In a year where it was thought 10-6 would be a must, and 11-5 a possibility for a team to ensure itself a wild card.  No AFC wild card team will post better than 9-7.  This dramatic change from years past proves that in the much tighter AFC of 2009 that 9-7 has become the new 10-6 (or 11-5).