CFL Faces Key Year in 2011

2010 should have been a more significant year for the CFL because it was supposed to mark the return of a franchise in Ottawa.

Instead the CFL was shown its uncomplimentary status in the capital of Canada by the repeated delays and opposition to the development and rebuilding of Frank Clair Stadium in Lansdowne Park.  Over thirty years of non-competitive football will have that kind of effect.

So if all goes well, the CFL will have to wait until 2012 before they become a nine team league again.  For 2010, the league will have to settle for a consolation prize of a regular season game between Toronto and an opponent in Moncton, New Brunswick (see photo above).

But the key year for the CFL is not 2010 or 2012 but the in-between year of 2011 when much of its future development will be determined.

Why?  Because 2011 is the year of the next Canadian census and the growth of the population in many non-CFL Canadian cities will determine how the CFL grows and develops in the coming decade.

The CFL has long talked about Canadian expansion, at least to ten teams.  It is a question frequently asked current Commissioner Mark Cohon on the blog at the CFL's official website.

The demise of the Ottawa Renegades and the failure to expand cost ex-Commissioner Tom Wright his job.

So for this article, let's look at some of the non-CFL cities and see how they have to grow in order to host a viable CFL franchise.

With one exception, all the populations will be small compared to the existing eight franchises, but remember that these teams once played in much smaller cities back in the 1950s and 1960s.

In fact the shock is that the CFL had a much healthier Ottawa franchise back then when it was only half the size of its current 1.2 million.

So what would the CFL like to see revealed in the 2011 census?

Quebec City

In the CFL's case, not much.  Quebec is the one Canadian city (outside of Ottawa) with a population that is big enough to host a CFL team immediately. 

In the last census in 2001, Quebec passed Winnipeg to become Canada's seventh largest city with a population of over 700,000.

Quebec has a reputation of being an introverted city, especially in regards to English Canada, but that seems to be changing.  The city elected non-BQ MPs for the first time in a long while and during 2008, made active attempts to lure tourists from outside Quebec when it celebrated its 400th anniversary.

More importantly, on the sports front, the city is taking active steps to build a facility to regain the NHL team it lost in the 1990s.  On the football scene, powerhouse Laval University gets great support and the city hosted a sold-out Vanier Cup in 2009.

The problem with Quebec is not on the population level but on the investor level.  Two names have been occasionally mentioned who claim to have an interest in bringing a CFL team to Quebec, but the league considers them financially unreliable and does not take them seriously.

Commissioner Cohon, start looking for suitable investors like Quebecor which is fronting the NHL bid, who believe in the CFL, and get this city into the CFL as quickly as possible.

They'll be a great draw in Montreal and will have a market not only in eastern Quebec, but possibly in the Maritimes too.  This is the best Canadian city for CFL expansion.

London

London's growth rate slowed down during the first five years of the new century, but they still managed to keep ahead of Kitchener as Canada's tenth largest city with a population of over 450,000.

When you consider that cities like Hamilton, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Ottawa were fielding teams with that kind of population or less back in the 1950s, a franchise in London seems perfectly feasible with a proper stadium. 

Like Quebec, London has a successful university team at Western.

It is probably too much to hope for, but if London cracked the 500,000 barrier, or even got close to it, a stable investor and an adequate stadium would make London a permanent member of the CFL.

Kitchener

Kitchener is right behind London with a population over 450,000, and unlike London, posted the seventh highest growth rate in Canada during the first five years of the new century.

They also have a successful university team in Laurier and a second one in Waterloo.

They would have a natural rival if London joined and another one in Hamilton.

If they came near or cracked the 500,000 mark, they would have same status as London.

Victoria

Whoever is the CFL Commissioner will be cheering for this city of 330,000 to grow.  The CFL has more than enough potential expansion cities in the east, but if the league wants to retain the popular east-west format, this is the best western city for expansion.

It would have a natural rivalry with Vancouver and would strengthen the CFL in the province of British Columbia.

Unfortunately, Victoria has only shown moderate growth and it would have an increase in the growth rate if it even got past 350,000.  Probably the CFL won't consider it until it gets past 400,000.

Also unfortunate is that Victoria doesn't seem to have much of a sports tradition.  It doesn't even ice a junior hockey team.

But if the CFL wants to keep a balanced east-west league, this is the only western city with a remote chance of joining.

Oshawa

This city has an identical population to Victoria, but a vastly superior growth rate.  In fact, Oshawa has Canada's eighth fastest growth rate from 1980-2005.

Just as important is Oshawa's surrounding region.  They could probably draw fans from as far west as eastern Scarborough, to Peterborough in the north, and to Kingston in the east, a potential market area of over one million.

Durham county is probably the leading growth area of Toronto's regional overflow.  It's probably unlikely that Oshawa will get past the 400,000 mark which would make it more noticeable, but with its high growth rate and it's surrounding region's growth rate, a CFL team could be feasible.

More likely, it will be under-estimated by both the CFL and potential investors during the next decade and won't be considered for a franchise until the 2020s.

Halifax

This is the leading Maritime city with a population of over 370,000, the city ex-Commissioner Tom Wright had in mind when he pledged to expand the CFL to 10 cities.

The CFL dreams of being a coast to coast league.

Unfortunately, Halifax, like all Maritime and Saskatchewan cities is plagued with the slowest population growth in Canada.  It was a miserable 19th in population growth during the first five years of the new century.

Cities like Kitchener and London that once were nowhere near Halifax have surpassed it.

Even breaking the 400,000 mark in 2011 will be achievement.  It would certainly make a team there more feasible, closer to the reality of Wright's romanticized dream.

Equally unfortunate is that Halifax seems content to let Moncton, a much smaller city be the CFL's torch-bearer in the Maritimes.

It's made no attempt at building a CFL stadium.  Unlike Moncton which has only managed to land a single regular season game because of its much smaller population, if Halifax had built a stadium to accommodate a CFL team, the league would have seriously considered expansion to any investor who had the interest and clout to make the CFL's coast to coast dream a reality.

What the CFL wants to see in 2011, is the dynamic growth Oshawa displays and a population past the 400,000 mark which would attract would-be investors.  Sadly, that probably won't happen.

Windsor

Ex-Commissioner Tom Wright came calling when Detroit hosted the Super Bowl.  The mayor of Windsor was even on some of the Detroit committees during the Super Bowl festivities.

Windsor certainly is a contender for a CFL team.  But it has the smallest population of all the best-contending cities with over 320,000 and a growth rate better than Halifax's, but less than Victoria's.

What makes Windsor both an attractive CFL destination and a potential trap door, is that too much of its expectations are based on the fate of the NFL's Detroit Lions.

So long as Detroit remains mismanaged and uncompetitive, the idea is that fans will be lured across the river to see a competitive football team even if it's in a league with less status than the NFL.

But what if Detroit becomes competitive and the Windsor team gets stuck at the bottom of the CFL?  The league would be better to wait until Windsor can stand on its own two feet without any assistance from Detroit.

Windsor would have to show a growth rate higher than Ottawa's to reach the 400,000 mark, something extremely unlikely.  It will be fortunate if it even nears 350,000.

Another deterrent is the Detroit-Windsor economy.  Not even the former Stanley Cup Champion Red Wings sell out consistently now.

Windsor will probably get a team when it emerges a lot more from under Detroit's shadow.

Those are the most promising cities for CFL expansion.  But there are two long shots that have to be considered.

St. Catharines

St. Catharines will be the next Canadian city to crack the 400,000 barrier.  It has a bad growth rate, identical to Halifax, but it has surpassed the Maritime city with 390,000.

It's unlikely the CFL will consider this quiet town next door to the Niagara Peninsula, but if events occurred...

These potential events lie in Los Angeles where the potential builders of a new stadium have publicly stated they are interested in stealing an existing NFL team instead of trying for an expansion one.  On their list is the Buffalo Bills who are already discontented with their home market and are playing games in Toronto.

Let's suppose LA steals the Bills away from their hapless fans in upstate New York and the NFL has no intention of returning to unglamorous Buffalo in the near future.

Suddenly you have a Windsor-Detroit situation...without the competing Lions.

Then you could try the experiment of placing a team near the American border and trying to lure fans across the river.

It would be better if St. Catharines showed the dynamic growth of Oshawa, Kitchener, and London, but if the Bills were removed, an investor might be tempted to trying a franchise if a suitable stadium was built.

Moncton

Small Moncton with a population of 126,000 and the worst growth rate of all the cities listed has to be considered because they are the only city that is doing the one thing that will lure both the CFL and investors; building a stadium even if it is only half CFL size.

Moncton is doubling their stadium for next year's CFL game by adding 10,000 temporary seats, making it the size of the current Montreal stadium. 

For a CFL franchise, they need to be made permanent with a commitment to reaching the CFL's proclaimed minimum standard of 25,000 in the near future.

Ideally, the CFL would like to see Moncton's population reach 200,000 and that of New Brunswick to pass one million making a permanent Moncton team a successful provincial New Brunswick regional team like Saskatchewan.

But even a population jump to 150,000 would be astounding.  Much will also depend on the kind of enthusiasm Moncton shows for next year's regular season game.

Moncton is unlikely to get a permanent team in the near future.  It will probably be a fine franchise in the very long term.

But with enough population growth and an enthusiastic sold-out game next year, stranger things have happened.

In any event, the key year for the CFL is not the first year of the new decade, but one after when its future Canadian growth will be determined.