NFL: Packers-Seahawks Preview

The Green Bay Packers go into Sunday's game with an outside chance of clinching not only a playoff birth, but the fifth seed in the NFC overall.

In order to clinch that spot, we need a win and either a Dallas loss in Washington or a Giants loss at home against the Panthers. To clinch the fifth seed, Philadelphia would also have to beat the Broncos at home.

I figure two of the four things will happen—they just will not be the right two. However, a loss will make it very hard for the Packers to make the playoffs at all, so a lot is riding on this game.

Seattle, on the other hand, became just the second team to lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, along with their opponent this week; they are the only team to lose to them at home. This team is a mess, having scored a single touchdown in each of the past two weeks and giving up an average of 29 points.

The week before, they only won because of horrible officiating; the week before that, only because they were playing the worst team in the NFL (the Rams). They have only one quality win among their five, beating a Jacksonville team that, at the time, was struggling.

The Seahawks are likely to be without starters LB Aaron Curry and WR Nate Burleson. RB Julius Jones and WR Ben Obomanu are listed as questionable—it is safe to say they will be at less than 100 percent if they do play. In addition, LT Walter Jones and LB Lofa Tatupu are among major players on the injured reserve.

The Packers have more significant injuries. We are without reserve OLB Jeremy Thompson, and NT Ryan Pickett is listed as questionable—expect him to suit up for depth but rookie B.J. Raji to get his second straight start after a strong performance in Pittsburgh. Green Bay also has starting cornerback Al Harris, dimeback/kick returner Will Blackmon, linebacker Aaron Kampman, and C/G Jason Spitz on injured reserve.

Still, while injuries offer a slight advantage for Seattle, Green Bay has done without most of those players for the majority of the season. The intangible benefit of any home game far outweighs this, and Pacific Coast teams tend not to fare well in the cold.

The Packers have also dominated the Seahawks of late. But most importantly, having something to play for and having won five of the last six gives the Packers a huge advantage in the intangible category.

We also have a distinct advantage in miscellaneous statistics that are measurable, such as a +18 vs. -5 turnover ratio and a 32:47 vs. 27:29 average time of possession advantage. The Packers are also better on third down percentage on both sides of the ball: 47 percent (third in the league) on offense and 36 percent on defense (seventh) vs. 33 percent on offense (26th) and 37 percent on defense (15th).

This is one reason that Green Bay averages 27.1 points per game (seventh) while generating the sixth most total yards (378.8). Seattle scores 18.4 (22nd) and generates 319.2 (22nd). The Packers give up just 20/game (10th) and allow 290.9 (2nd) while the Seahawks allow 23.2 (23rd) and 355.9 (24th).

About the only measurable miscellaneous statistic Seattle leads the Packers in is penalties, with 27 fewer penalties for 274 fewer yards.

Green Bay has the league's eighth best passing attack at 262.9 yards per game thanks to a receiving corps that is second in yards after the catch (1,931) and a quarterback who is fourth in passer rating (102.4). Only five teams are better than the Packers' 8.0 yards per play passing.

The one weakness here is a line that, despite improved play in November and December, still has yielded more sacks than any other. The Seahawks, however, seem unlikely to be able to exploit that—only eight teams have fewer sacks than their 27 overall. Seattle struggles in pass defense, ranking 29th in total yards (249.4) and 22nd in yards per play (7.2).

This leads to a huge advantage for the Packers when they are passing.

Green Bay also has a decent running attack, averaging 115.9 yards per game (ranking 15th) and 4.4 per carry (tied for ninth). The Seahawks, however, are ranked 13th in yards per game (106.4) and are tied for 16th in yards per carry (4.2). So on the rare occasions the Packers choose to run, the two sides are even.

However, the Seahawks running attack is anemic, averaging just 93.6 yards per game (28th in the NFL) and 3.9 per carry (also 28th).

Meanwhile, the Packers rush defense is among the best in the league, even if you do not consider they have faced many of the league's top rushers (Cedric Benson, Stephen Jackson, Ray Rice, the trio of Cowboys backs, and Adrian Peterson twice). The run defense ranks second in yards per game (83.6) and is tied for first in yards per carry (3.6), giving the Packers an immense advantage when the Seahawks try to run the ball.

Thus, expect the Seahawks to do what they have had to for most of the year: pass. The Packers showed they are vulnerable against three- and four-receiver sets because of the injuries to the defensive backfield, although without Nate Burleson, Seattle appears to lack the necessary depth to exploit it.

However, Seattle does still have a potent passing game, averaging 225.6 yards per game (14th in the NFL) thanks to a receiving corps that is fifth in yards after the catch (with 1,855). However, some of those are padded by the frequency by which they do pass, as they are only 24th in the league in yards per play (6.2) and Matt Hasselbeck is only the league's 19th-ranked passer (79.6).

Seattle also gives up the 10th most sacks in the league (35) while the Packers are tied for the eighth most with 34. All of this leads to a significant advantage for the Packers when the Seahawks pass, especially since they will know that is likely to be the case—probably increasingly so as the game wears on.

The one advantage the Seahawks have is no surprise, and it is significant: special teams. The biggest advantage is in a comparison of kickers: Olindo Mare is 21-23 (.913) with only one miss inside of 40 yards, while Mason Crosby is 24-33 (.727) with two short misses and a missed extra point.

Remember how the Packers got rid of punter Jon Ryan? Good thing, since he is averaging 46.9 yards per punt and has had 26 punts downed inside the 20 as opposed to only eight touchbacks.

Green Bay's Jeremy Kapinos averages a respectable 43.8 per punt, but has had 10 touchbacks to just 14 downed inside the 20. Oh, and he had a punt blocked that resulted in a Tampa Bay score.

Things do get a bit better when comparing punt and kick return to coverage. The Packers average a woeful 6.9 per punt return and give up a whopping 10.2 average, but the Seahawks actually are worse, getting 7.2 but yielding 11.1—a net advantage of about two feet in the Packers' favour.

However, the Seahawks have an almost negligible net advantage of 0.1 yards in kick returns, getting 22 but yielding 23.5 vs. the Packers 21.6 and 23.2, respectively.

Still, all in all the Packers have so large an advantage in this game that the only way they will lose is if they do not give full effort. Such a performance would be grounds for putting the coaching staff on the hot seat given the stakes, so I am predicting a Packers blowout: Green Bay 38, Seattle 14.