Prospects for the race at Magny-Cours

Formula Ferrari

There isn’t any doubt that tomorrow the only team that can beat Ferrari are indeed themselves. As I predicted in my preview the Ferrari just works brilliantly around this track and this was demonstrated in qualifying. The fact that BMW Sauber are struggling and both Mclaren drivers have been given penalties and start furthur back on the grid have made a 1-2 finish an even stronger (if not guaranteed) possibility. The only man to worry about is Alonso who we all know when he is inspired can conjure up something special but the Renault although improved simply won’t be a match for the Ferrari. By the first pit stops Ferrari should have him covered.

Raikkonen Vs Massa should be interesting. Massa is looking very confident at the moment and was just pipped by Raikkonen to pole position. Massa’s long runs in free practise looked pretty decent so there is no doubt that Massa can give Raikkonen a hard time tomorrow. However I can’t see Raikkonen giving into the pressure and will push hard at the times he needs to do to ensure he can’t be passed by Massa either on the track or in the pits. They will be nose to tail for most of the race but Raikkonen will edge it. Massa would have had more chance of winning this race by claiming pole but he could still yet get ahead in turn 1.

Mclaren Damage limitations

Hamilton could only manage 3^rdso he goes back 10 places on the grid. Even worse for Mclaren is that Kovalainen got penalized for blocking Webber in Q1 so he has now incurred a 5-place penalty pushing him back down to 10^th. Mclaren will start 10^th and 13^th. The midfield cars look pretty quick so in terms of overtaking him they will be no mugs and they will both have to be extremely aggressive which could be fun to watch. In order to overtake they will need to get a good run out of Estoril in order to get a good tow through the turbulent air and get close enough to attack in the Adelaide hairipin. The important thing is that they both keep their front wings on and get a double points finish, neither driver needs a DNF as that will do the team a lot of harm in both championships.

Hamilton will be 3 stopping so he needs to make up as many positions at the start as he possibly can and if others are 2 stopping then they may well re-pass him again in the pits and he will have to overtake them again. Hamilton is in for a busy and hard afternoon. Kovalainen is running heavier so if he gets a good start his tactics may actually favour him so it should work out better for him.

I predict that the two mclarens will finish 5^th and 6^th and overall that would be a decent points haul for them baring in mind the tough situation they find themselves in.

Tight Midfield Battle

Red Bull, BMW Sauber, Toyota and Renault are going to have a very tight battle in tomorrow’s race. If Alonso can stay ahead of Trulli at the start then he has a good chance of retaining 3^rdplace throughout the race. Trulli’s race pace isn’t always the best and he often holds people up during the race. Fans often call this a “Trulli Train”. Due to this the midfield cars could be bunched so we could see some good wheel-to-wheel action between them or tactics being used via the pits, being bunched up would also help the mclarens catch the midfield runners and pass them.

I think Red Bull are in for a good result tomorrow, I think they are a bit heavier than the cars in front and could leap them during the stops. Red Bull’s race pace is normally good. The other thing the midfield teams will have to consider is the Mclarens trying to pass them, which cause problems to their race as they try to move their own race forward.

I am really looking forward to seeing this mid-pace fight tomorrow and mix the Mclarens in there as they fight through the pack and it will be interesting.

French Weather

There are predictions of thunderstorms in France tomorrow, which could affect the race. It would be great news for Mclaren as a little bit of chaos up front would help them make up some positions, also on a wet and low grip track it is far easier to follow the car in front and challenge to overtake them. A mistake in the wet from either Ferrari driver would also be possible. I can’t see either Ferrari driver throwing the race away in the dry.

From looking at various predictions most sites seem to be saying that rain won’t arrive till after the race so this may well not be a variable.

Final Conclusion and Prediction

This should be a very interesting race despite it on paper looking very easy for Ferrari. Raikkonen and Massa are neck and neck. The midfield battle will be almighty tight with the mclarens battling their way through to rescue lost points.

Like I said I think Raikkonen will be able to keep Massa at bay despite a determined challenge from the young Brazilian. Alonso has a great chance of 3^rdand I think Red Bull will be battling with the  for 4^th down to 6^th. Toyota and BMW’s race pace isn’t special this weekend so I think it will be Red Bull who get the most points out of the midfield teams and strengthen their 4^th place in the constructors. Alonso may get a podium for Renault but Piquet Jnr won’t score which is why I think Red Bull will get more points overall in the race.

1. Raikkonen 2. Massa 3. Alonso