French Grand Prix: Ferrari's 200 Pole Position, As BMW Struggle

So, there weren't too many surprises today, as Ferrari locked out the front row of the grid, Hamilton right up there in terms of speed, but with that 10-place penalty a potentially difficult race tomorrow. There was one surprise, however, and that was BMW's performance - with Nick Heidfeld failing to make Q3 and Robert Kubica, just squeezing throught, and putting his car in 6th position for tomorrow's race.

Coming here this weekend, everyone expected BMW to carry on their winning form from Canada, being a major threat to Ferrari as they look to overtake them in the Constructor's Championship, and Robert Kubica - riding high from his maiden victory in Montreal - was potentially a race winner here in France.

The likelihood of that is extremely low after BMW's poor performance in qualifying. Of course, rain is always a posibility here, and that would help Kubica (as well as Hamilton), but even so I think anything more than a 3rd place tomorrow is a long shot for the Pole and BMW.

Hamilton did well to qualify where he did (3rd right behind the Ferraris), and it looks like he has opted for a very short first stint. This could play out very nicely for him, if he makes a good start and overtakes the under-performing likes of Vettel, Heidfeld, and Piquet (12th, 11th and 10th respectively) in the first corner, and, being lighter than everyone else, does enough to end up behind the Ferraris and Alonso after the first set of pit stops. I think that is the most optimistic outlook for Hamilton, as he would have to go through both BMWs, which, even though not performing too well, will still be difficult to overtake, and well, we all know Alonso won't cut him any slack.

I am certainly expecting a very eventful race tomorrow, with both Hamilton and Kubica trying hard to make up the places, Hamilton from his penalty, Kubica from his poor performance in qualifying. I am assuming BMW fuelled him quite a bit seeing that they lack performance and maybe trying out a one-stopper? If not, then certainly a two-stopper with a very long first stint.

The top 10, after adjusting for Hamilton's penalty, looks like this: P1 - Raikkonen, P2 - Massa, P3 - Alonso, P4 - Trulli, P5 - Kovalainen, P6 - Kubica, P7 - Webber, P8 - Coulthard, P9 - Glock, P10 - Piquet. 

Alonso, Trulli and Kovalainen also looked quite strong in qualifying, but Trulli and Kovalainen have lacked race pace as of late, so I do not think they will do any better than a point scoring position, and Renault certainly dont have the pace of the Ferraris and McLarens. However, Alonso looks to be making the best of it, and I am expecting him to be certainly quicker than Kovalainen and the Red Bulls, and depending on what Hamilton gets up to, maybe even get to a podium position.

My prediction for the race: A Ferrari one-two, with a three way fight between Kubica, Hamilton and Alonso for that last place on the podium. Of course, that could all change if it rains, which is still quite likely.