Who Can Beat Montreal?

After last month's exciting Grey Cup, speculation about the 2010 Canadian Football League season has already begun.

Throughout 2009, the Montreal Alouettes established itself as the benchmark of the league with a combined 17-3 record.

Though the Grey Cup score was far closer than Montreal would have liked, they were hardly threatened during the season.

With both coach Marc Trestman and quarterback Anthony Calvillo returning, the seven other CFL teams face a formidable task to dethrone them.

So how does the rest of the league compare with Montreal?  What should these teams do in the off-season to reach the Alouette benchmark?

Saskatchewan Roughriders

They have the most grounds for optimism because they were able to host the Western Division finals for the first time in 33 years.

Quarterback Darian Durant played well in both the finals and Grey Cup, coming within one point of pulling off an incredible upset.  Already there is talk of a rematch in the 2010 game.

But don't be too fooled by the Riders' showing. 

They entered the Grey Cup as a large underdog. Handicappers rightly saw a huge gap between them and Montreal.

Though it appeared Saskatchewan had closed the gap with Montreal by the Grey Cup Game, Saskatchewan lost to Montreal twice last regular season.

The big difference is depth. When Montreal gets injuries, they can fill the holes without losing a beat. Losing slotback Weston Dressler hurt the Roughriders. 

Saskatchewan's biggest asset is the outstanding Canadian talent they have stockpiled, which is more than the maximum non-import quota. Still, they need to close the overall talent gap between them and Montreal.

When the defense had to stop Montreal at the end of the Grey Cup, they could not. When the offense had to make a first down to control the clock and close out Montreal, they were stopped.

Saskatchewan doesn't need much more to reach the top. Probably two more playmakers on both sides of the ball could be enough to equalize things with the Alouettes.

Calgary Stampeders

They have an difficult decision to make because most of their problems center around the quarterback position.

In 2008, Henry Burris peaked, and the Stampeders won the big one.

Last year, his play returned to its previous level. So the Stampeders were good, but not great.

Now comes the tough part. Did Burris peak in 2008 and reach the downside of his career, or did he just have an off year?

You can't tell by one season.  One big problem was that wide receiver Ken-Yon Rambo got injured, and Burris never found anyone to replace him.

Though Calgary tried to address the problem with a trade with Winnipeg, the Stampeders passing offense disappeared for much of 2009.

A training camp in which the new receivers find a chemistry with Burris will help. If Rambo gets injured again, Calgary must have an alternative that Burris is comfortable with.

But everything revolves around Burris. If he returns to 2008 form, Calgary has as good of a chance as Saskatchewan of winning the Grey Cup in 2010.

B.C. Lions

As long as Wally Buono is coaching the team, B.C. is a threat to win it all. 

But when Buono was given the leanest talent he has had in years., the old cliche about making soup from feathers appeared.

The good news is that Casey Printers gave the offense the consistency at quarterback that was missing in the early part of the year. 

With Jarious Jackson and Buck Pierce as back-ups and Martell Mallett running the ball, the offense has a balanced attack. Keeping the quarterback healthy will be critical.

But B.C. has to upgrade its overall talent to the level it had in the past when the team was a consistent Grey Cup threat.

More obviously, the Lions have to get better run defense. 

They lost games to inferior teams like the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers because their opponents were able to get embarrassingly high rushing yards.

The defense can no longer win games by itself or keep opponents at bay until the offense gets on track.

The Eastern Division final showed that while B.C. is a contender for a playoff position, they are far from challenging Montreal.  An overhaul on defense that brings them closer to the Grey Cup is probably the best that the Lions can hope for in 2010.

Edmonton Eskimos

They have not been a perennial threat to win the Grey Cup since the 1980s.

They have the same question as Calgary.  Has quarterback Ricky Ray passed his peak and reached the downside of his career?

Part of the problem for Ray's ordinary 2009 season was the Eskimos' ordinary receiver corp, with the exception of Fred Stamps. Upgrading receiver talent is a must.

Another potential problem is at backup quarterback. Jason Maas doesn't look like he can pull off the comebacks he could in the past.

The Eskimos finally have a running game with Arkee Whitlock. They also have—but probably won't count on—the brittle Jesse Lumsden.

On defense, the Eskimos pass rush must get better. Oh, for the days of 1980s dynasty.  The current group is far from that.

In the secondary, the Eskimos got better by stealing Byron Parker from the Toronto Argonauts, thanks to former head coach Bart Andrus' foolishness.

Another potential problem is Richie Hall wants to hold two jobs: head coach and offensive coordinator. That didn't work for Andrus. Is Hall overloading himself?

The Eskimos are still a playoff contender, almost certain to play in the postseason as long as the cross-over rule exists.

If Ray shows that last year was not the start of his decline, and the team upgrades the defensive line and wide receiver positions, the Eskimos might advance a bit further next year.

Like B.C., they can take steps in getting closer to the Grey Cup, but are far from challenging Montreal.

Hamilton Tiger Cats

They are the second best team in the east. That is not saying much when you consider the other two teams in their division.

On the positive side, GM Bob O'Billovich did an excellent job transforming the Tiger-Cats from perennial laughingstocks to playoff contenders.

The problem is he needs to do a lot more.

The Ti-Cats moved from the bottom of the league to a position where they are able to beat bad teams consistently and some of the better teams as well. But they are still far from being able to challenge Montreal.

Hamilton got better at the running game, the offensive line, wide receiver, linebacker, and the secondary. They also improved on the defensive line but not enough. Upgrading there will help.

But for all their new weapons, Hamilton is still crippled by the quarterback position.

O'Billovich's idea was to have Quinton Porter become the Eastern Conference's Darian Durant, with Kevin Glenn as the backup in case of emergency.

But, unlike Durant, Porter failed to grab his opportunity. By year's end, the hot and cold Glenn was the starter. That wasn't good news for this young, inexperienced team's development.

When Glenn is on, he gives the team respectable quarterbacking. The key stat with him is not turnovers, but how many two-and-outs he has. That was the main factor in the loss to B.C.

Hamilton should bring in a young hotshot who will grasp the position like Durant did in Saskatchewan and let him develop. 

Or trade for somebody else. But that didn't work with Jason Maas.

Or hope either Porter or Adam Tafralis finally assert themselves.

Another thing that needs to be examined is the kicking game. Nick Setta was inconsistent last year.

Considering the opponents they have in their division, Hamilton has a good chance of making the playoffs again. But to go further and challenge Montreal, they've got to upgrade at quarterback.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Bombers already have received two items of good news during the offseason.

Head coach Mike Kelly got fired, so hopefully there won't be as many off-field antics and bad on-field offense.

The other good news was that Ottawa failed to return to the CFL in 2010 as scheduled, meaning that Winnipeg won't be in the Western Conference where they would certainly finish last. 

Remaining in the east, they even have a chance of making the playoffs.

This team needs a huge overhaul on offense to compete with Montreal. Except for the running game, Winnipeg's offense is horrible. 

The top priority in the offseason is to get a competent head coach and replace the streaky Michael Bishop at quarterback.

The Bombers looked like a good team when Bishop is on and even managed to beat Montreal. The problem is that Bishop was on for only about half the games he appeared in. That's not good enough.

So like Hamilton, upgrading at quarterback will be the focus of the offseason. The receivers probably need to be upgraded too.

The Winnipeg defense is respectable, and any kind of offensive upgrade will make them a playoff contender in the CFL east. 

But even with positive development, they are still at least two seasons away from playing consistently with Montreal.

Toronto Argonauts

Where to begin to rebuild this wreckage of a franchise?

Actually, the team knows where to begin -- bring in a competent CFL coach.

Ideally, the Argonauts want Pinball Clemons to return, but it's doubtful that he wants to.  They really need the next Marc Trestman.

If they find him, they also need the next Darian Durant—that certainly should be the top offensive priority for the Argonauts—or hope the new coach can get the cobwebs out of Kerry Joseph's head and make him the player he was in Saskatchewan.

Still worse for the Argonauts is the overall talent depth.  The team needs an overhaul at every position except running back thanks to the excellent Jamal Robertson.

GM Adam Rita—or whoever is running the team—needs to do the overhaul Bob O'Billovich did in Hamilton last year just to bring back respectability and an opportunity at playoff contention.

It didn't help that Bart Andrus also cost the team the services of Byron Parker and Arland Bruce III.

But the head coaching position needs to be solved quickly so that the rebuilding process can get started at once. If Montreal has little to fear from Hamilton and Winnipeg, they can shrug off Toronto for the next year or two until the building blocks get in place.

So Montreal, with Trestman and Calvillo, is the team to beat in 2010.

Saskatchewan and Calgary (depending on Burris) are second.

B.C. with Buono coaching is the dark horse.

How the others upgrade in the offseason by correcting weaknesses and filling holes will determine their fate in 2010.