Will Strikeforce Survive To See 2011?

Strikeforce is entering the new year with its strongest MMA roster in promotional history, with the huge free agent deals bringing Fedor Emelianenko and Dan Henderson and the agreement with the Japanese based promotion DREAM allowing for co-promotion.

Strikeforce owner Scott Coker has positioned his promotion to make a power move in the hierarchy of MMA and present a real challenge to the UFC in 2010. This next year will determine if Strikeforce really is a force to be reckoned with in MMA or will it, like so many other challengers to the UFC, fade into history. 

Now it is important not to mistake Strikeforce for the recent wave of pretender challengers to the UFC. Elite XC was a get-rich-quick scheme and Affliction MMA was living the promotional equivalent of paycheck to paycheck, and neither really had any chance against the UFC powerhouse.

And DREAM, while strong, is largely staffed with former PRIDE front office people who learned a stern lesson about going head-to-head with the UFC.

Scott Coker is a very savvy businessman who has been in the promotion business for a very long time. Strikeforce has been putting on kickboxing cards at some level since 1985 and in the 1990s became a major U.S. kickboxing promotion and the heart of professorial Sanshou competition in the U.S.

In 2006 Strikeforce hosted its first MMA card headlined by Frank Shamrock against Cesar Gracie and while it received little fan fare at the time it was filled with familiar names:

Cung Le, Clay Guida, Josh Thompson, Krzysztof Soszynski, Gilbert Melendez, and Nathan Diaz

While Coker had an eye for talent, Strikeforce had a hard time holding on to its fighters who seemed to use it as a stop on the way to greater things. So in 2008 when Elite XC collapsed Coker jumped at the chance to make a statement.

The addition of serious talent combined with the CBS TV deal launched Strikeforce towards to the forefront of MMA and the recent signings of Fedor and Henderson helped create additional buzz around Strikeforce.

While Strikeforce is positioned to rise quickly, the UFC has crushed far stiffer competition. In 2005 PRIDE FC was at the height of its popularity, with fighters like Rampage Jackson, Mirko Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva and in just under two years the UFC had bought PRIDE out.

While Strikeforce has assembled a deep pool of fighters, it pales in comparison to the depth of the UFC. The UFC is more than able to put on 10-14 cards a year, something Strikeforce cannot hope to match. So Strikefore's strategy has to be to put one only a handful of very high quality cards during periods of weakened UFC cards.

Coker has collected high quality fighters but it is possible he paid too high a price. Fedor carried with him not only a huge price tag but also M-1 splitting the profits. Fedor's first CBS fight delivered on action but did not deliver on numbers, not nearly drawing the ratings hoped for.

Dan Henderson also carried a heavy price tag, and while a talented fighter, doesn't have the drawing power to match his ability and certainly not his salary.

As it stands going into 2010 it seems Coker is playing with money he doesn't have yet, which is very dangerous when you're going against the UFC. Dana White has stated that he respects Scott Coker a great deal, and thus far White has put actions to words using the kid gloves when counter-programing Strikeforce, using the WEC or Fight Nights instead the full weight of a UFC PPV.

But with the departure of Dan Henderson to the ranks of Strikeforce and the growing popularity of Strikeforce, I find it very likely that the gloves will come off this coming year and we will see Strikeforce and the UFC go head to head on several occasions.

While normally this wouldn't a problem for a promotion as stable as Strikeforce has been for the last 20 years, but with the size of the recent investment and the amount of competition a relativity weak WEC card just gave Strikeforce there does seem to be some cause for concern.

While I doubt that Strikeforce will fold entirely, the ramifications of a rash of injuries like the one striking the UFC currently or a crushing defeat in a head-to-head matchup with the UFC could result in an inability to honor fighter contracts and that would cause the MMA branch of Strikeforce to implode.

While I certainly hope this is not the case, as I very much like Scott Coker and the Strikeforce promotions, 2010 will be a defining year in Strikeforce. Will it continue rising and assume a very solid No. 2 position or has it peaked and will its decline begin?