UFC's Divisional Flavors

There are few fighters remaining in the UFC who can truly be considered one-dimensional, but there still seems to be a little bit of a stylistic flavor to each of the divisions within the UFC. Let me explain:

Heavyweights: There have been a few very notable heavyweights who have had some success with a good or great guard and submission game, notably Fedor Emelianenko and Frank Mir.

That being said, the late arrivals of Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, and Brock Lesnar makes me feel like the future of the heavyweight division lies clearly with the wrestlers.

No matter how big a fighter is at heavyweight, I don't see very many strikers who are going to be able to stop these guys when they go for takedowns, and from top position, they should be extremely dangerous and difficult to submit.

As a result, I'm projecting that that kind of wrestler is going to be the fighter that defines the division in the future, as nobody else is going to come close to the belt unless they are able to have some success against one of them.

Do guys like Frank Mir and Fedor have a shot? Fedor has a fairly good brand of defensive wrestling that might work against these guys, especially given his speed and striking advantages, but as a single fighter, and not in the UFC, he's not going to be the one defining the UFC division.

On the other hand, the type of fighter who might be able to beat Fedor might be a wholly different type than the type that might be able to beat the aforementioned wrestling trio, possibly fracturing the divisional flavor across MMA.

Frank Mir, on the other hand, might also stand a chance against the wrestling trio due to his new physique and lessons learned from the Lesnar loss. That being said, I think the days of Frank Mir working a real guard game have passed.

Is there a possibility of a rise of another striker like Mirko Cro Cop? Given the powerhouse wrestlers near the top, it seems very unlikely, at least in the near future.

Light-Heavyweights: Chuck Liddell largely defined the Light-heavyweight division with his defensive wrestling and knockout striking. Few wrestlers could take him down, while most pure-strikers weren't good enough at wrestling to make it to a title shot.

As a result, Chuck became a little bit of a one-dimensional fighter, although that dimension (striking) still relied upon a brilliant ability to be able to stand up whenever anybody took him down.

Since that time, the division has been populated mostly by those who can stuff a takedown and knock somebody out.  Forrest Griffin's brief reign showed perhaps a flaw with this analogy, but by and large, it still rings true.

Furthermore, Forrest's loss to Rashad Evans was indicative of the dangers of having suspect wrestling when nearly everybody in the division has knockout power from top position.

As it stands, there are really very few big BJJ players at the top of this division, although Shogun Rua, and Lyoto Machida are as good, and as well-rounded as any.

If Shogun is unsuccessful, the type of fighter that might be able to wrest the title from the current champion remains a bit of a mystery.

Could it be something like the absurdly brilliant and flashy wrestling of Jon Jones? Or is it going to take more defensive wrestling and knockout power?

Middleweights: The UFC middleweight division seems a fair bit different than the wrestle-heavy divisions discussed thus far.

There have been few dominant wrestlers in the division outside of Dan Henderson, who himself isn't really that good at avoiding submissions once the fight reaches the ground.

Matt Lindland and Chael Sonnen are other examples of wrestlers who haven't acclimated really well to the submission game.

Partially as a result of this, there are middleweights who are nearly purely ground specialists, like Demian Maia.

Meanwhile, some strikers like Rich Franklin and Anderson Silva have been able to have success despite an apparent lack of wrestling, as they still have enough defensive wrestling to stay on their feet against the BJJ guys, and have enough BJJ to survive against the wrestlers like Chael Sonnen, who really aren't that threatening once they've taken the fight to the ground.

All of this makes me wonder if what is really required to beat Anderson Silva isn't so much of a wrestler, or BJJ player, but rather, a wrestler with a great BJJ top game to exploit the wrestling weakness of Anderson. 

Dan Henderson could get Anderson down, but from there, he just didn't have the BJJ skills to really do anything.

A larger version of GSP would seem to me to be the perfect stylistic matchup to beat Anderson and lay claim to the division.

Otherwise, everything else here seems to be in a bizarre balance, unlike the other divisions with a clear dominating structure.  As it stands right now, strikers rule the middleweight division, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a change soon, if either a dominant BJJ guy can learn how to wrestle, or a dominant wrestler can get himself some sort of guard-passing BJJ top game.

Welterweight: With Georges St. Pierre, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, etc at the top of the division, wrestling seems to be the key at welterweight.

This all started with Matt Hughes, whose takedowns and top game couldn't be stopped earlier in his career.

Nowadays, pure strikers really shouldn't be able to get by the trio of GSP, Kos, and Fitch, who would dominate them with takedowns and ground control.

Even fairly decorated wrestlers like Anthony Johnson seem unlikely to stop the takedowns of GSP and Koscheck.

Thiago Alves nearly upset the applecart, and is himself an anomaly in the division, being one of the few fighters there coming from a striking background, having then developed a solid BJJ and defensive wrestling game.

So who can wrest the title from the hands of GSP? Maybe an even better defensive wrestler with even better strikes.  Anthony Johnson will remain a wildcard, especially if he can improve his ground game and striking.

Dan Hardy doesn't have much of a shot against GSP, and even if he does win, I can't see him holding the title for long given the kind of grappling games possessed by the other contenders.

Aside from that, there are some up-and-coming wrestlers like Johny Hendricks, but I don't see these guys as being well-rounded enough to make it up to the top quite yet.

Lightweight: BJ Penn stands alone in this division, and as such, doesn't really define it.

Aside from BJ, who makes the whole title picture seem unexciting, is a relatively exciting division filled with BJJ players and wrestlers.

Perhaps due to the lack of knockout power at the lower weight, lightweight is the only division where scrambly wrestlers, and BJJ guys can be very successful, even without great striking.

As a result, the division seems to have trended away from strikers, and toward wrestlers with submission defense and BJJ guys who can wrestle.

At this level, pure BJJ guys now struggle mightily, because they can't take anybody down, and thus lose fights by being stuck on the bottom. Pure wrestlers end up getting submitted.

Pure strikers can't even make it to the UFC in this division, for the most part.

The new trend seems to be heading towards whichever of the remaining grapplers can learn striking the best.

So far, not many of them have really caught on to the finer aspects of boxing like BJ Penn has, which raises some serious questions about who can beat him at lightweight.

Conclusions: Wrestling and defensive wrestling seems to dominate the UFC, outside of a few notable cases. 

There still seems to be room for improvement in the level of striking within MMA, but the question remains as to whether or not strikers will be able to learn enough about grappling to compete against the current crop in the upper echelon of MMA.