Liver's NFL Week 15 Picks

The Liver must caution all of you…stay away from these picks . Week 15 has the potential to be either an 11-5, 12-4 kind of week or the reverse . Several, if not most, of these lines have seen varying degrees of swing, some severe, due to injuries. Most, if not all, involve a team that is in the playoffs and another that has no shot whatsoever. You just don't know what you're getting. Even with a bottle of Charles Shaw Cabernet in me I can't decide, dammit .

Most of these games I could pick either team to cover and am only picking them because I have a thermonuclear detonator in my head telling me to pick these damn games so I can be done with them. Otherwise I’ll never be able to pass out. If I wasn't so obsessed with finishing the season at .600 or better it wouldn't matter. By the way, find me someone who doesn't live in Las Vegas, has picked every game against the spread this season, and has a winning percentage better than the Liver's.

There’s just no way you can accurately handicap the games remaining this season. Here’s where luck has to kick in and we either swim in money or drown in piss and broken glass. This is why the guys in Vegas do this for a living.

Here’s a good story that The Liver’s roommate, Chris (the suffering but always upbeat Steelers/49’rs fan), sent him that might have been The Liver in another lifetime:

This is a cliff notes version of a story that appeared in The Huffington Post Dec. 17:

Police say four-year-old Hayden Wright managed to break the child locks on the doors, open a beer he found in his grandfather's cooler, and then slip into his neighbor's house and steal five Christmas presents from underneath their tree. He was found at 1:45 AM wandering the streets wearing a little girl's brown dress (one of the presents he took), and drinking. He was taken to the hospital to be treated for the alcohol consumption.

Apparently, young Hayden's father is in jail, and his mother says that's why he tries to run away from time to time. Obviously, Hayden figured that the best way to spend time with his pops was to get inside the clink with him.

I can completely sympathize with the kid on everything, except the brown dress bit. That is genius thinking, though, on Hayden’s part as far as seeing his dad. Maybe one day The Liver and Hayden can share a beer together and watch a game.

Now that it’s looking like she’s going to be the ex-Mrs. Tiger, the Liver would like to make his case to Elin that he’s the man for her. I mean, how could you pass all this up?

F.Y.I. The Liver will be taking Christmas week off and try to detox in Texas with fresh air, family, good friends, and loose women that he can afford. Week 16 picks may just be the picks themselves, but they will be posted.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks, against the spread, are for recreational purposes only . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 9-7
2009 record against the spread: 122-84-2 (.592)


Saturday, Dec. 19

Dallas at New Orleans (-7)
Last week’s loss to San Diego just further drove home what I had been afraid of all season ; this Cowboys team isn’t very good. The offense hasn’t been able to score consistently and will need to score 30 to compete against a Saints team that is dominant at home. DeMarcus Ware is iffy with a sprained neck. Somehow, Cowboys' kicker Nick Folk still has a job. Wonder who he’ll blame this week when he shanks another kick?

Dec. 10, 2006: a defining moment in Dallas Cowboys history. It was that night that the New Orleans Saints, under rookie head coach Sean Payton, handed the Cowboys their first December loss of the Tony Romo era, a 42-17 blowout on Monday Night Football.  Payton was Romo's position coach and an Eastern Illinois graduate who helped convince Bill Parcells to take a flier on Romo.

And to think what could’ve been if Payton had stayed in Dallas as the offensive play caller one more year and Parcells had left…Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Sean Payton. Instead we got Wade Phillips and his bag of nothing. I’m starting to get depressed now.

Drew Brees should be able to pick apart the Dallas secondary with ease, and the Cowboys will quietly fade to 0-3 this December. Start getting that resume ready, Wade, because you are out! I felt an Alec Baldwin moment from Glengarry Glen Ross coming up inside of me. "Coffee is for closers only." This would be one of the three games this week (Indy having been one that's already covered) I would say to bet on.  I know this Dallas Cowboys team too well. At least after the massacre, Wade will be gone. 

Pick: New Orleans

Sunday, Dec. 20

Miami at Tennessee (-3)
This should be a good match-up between Ricky Williams and Chris Johnson. Vince Young is likely to play as of now, but will be hampered by a hamstring injury. Miami has faint playoff hopes while Tennessee looks to play spoiler. Call me a Longhorns apologist but I believe in Vince Young even at less then 100 percent.

Pick: Tennessee

New England at Buffalo (+7)
Wonder if any Buffalo defensive players will call out Randy Moss this week? Brady is hurt (listed as probable), Moss could be mailing it in the rest of the season and the Patriots have been shit on the road this season. This is Buffalo’s Super Bowl right here. I want to take Buffalo so badly here, but I just can't . This just feels like a Patriots statement game. Stay away from this.

Pick: New England

Arizona at Detroit (+10 ½)
Thank you so much Arizona for those seven turnovers Monday night. That cost the Liver a shot at a nice, juicy steak. The Liver convinced a personal fitness trainer buddy of his (yup, you read it right ) by the name of Mahnik to take a three team parlay that included Indy minus seven (cover), San Diego plus three (cover), and Arizona minus three (loss ). Historically, Kurt Warner has a great bounce-back game after throwing out garbage like he did Monday night. Detroit is just a walking IR unit right now. Laying this on Arizona might be insanity, but then again you saw what the Ravens did to Detroit last week. By the way, The Liver did get that steak back with Indy covering Thursday night.

Pick: Arizona

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-8)
San Francisco did an excellent job of deep-frying the Liver's steak last week. They’ve been an awful road team, though, and Filthy is in the driver’s seat in the NFC East. Still, this 49’rs team has been resilient for Mike Singletary. This is another game where I’m shaking my head as I write this.

Pick: San Francisco

Atlanta at N.Y. Jets (OFF)
I could not find a line for this all week due to injuries for "The Sanchize" , Matt Ryan, and Michael Turner. The Jets are hanging around in the wild card hunt and can’t afford a screw-up here to a Falcons team whose season ended weeks ago. The Jets have the number one overall defense and should make it difficult for Chris Redman, if he does play, to have much success. The Sanchize has been cleared to play while Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are questionable game-day decisions.

Pick: N.Y. Jets

Chicago at Baltimore (-10)
Baltimore has been able to feast on bad teams this year and should be able to pound a bad Bears team all day.

Pick: Baltimore

Cleveland at Kansas City (-2)
I can’t wait for this one. Does anyone know that the Browns beat the Steelers last Thursday night?

Pick: Kansas City

Houston at St. Louis (+10)
What did I say about the Lions being a walking IR unit? You can throw the Rams in there as well. Rookie QB Keith Null is probably your Rams starter and judging by what happened last week, that’s not a good thing. Houston should steamroll here.

Pick: Houston

Cincinnati at San Diego (-7)
The Bengals seem to have lost some steam lately so the last team they need right now is the dominant Chargers, that look as good as any team right now, defeated or undefeated. Carson Palmer hasn’t thrown for over 230 yards since Oct. 25. I was taking the Chargers all week, until the sad story of Chris Henry broke yesterday. I think this Bengals team will rally around that and make this a game. This would be the only other game that I feel reasonably confident in picking.

Pick: Cincinnati

Oakland at Denver (-14)
Denver is in the driver’s seat as far as the other AFC wild card spot is concerned, and can’t afford a loss to the hated Raiders. Charlie Frye will start at QB for the Raiders which means that the Broncos dominant pass defense should have its way here. How the Hell can I take the Raiders here?

Pick: Denver

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-1)
This is how bad the Steelers offensive line is: the Browns walked all over them. Green Bay has been on a five-game tear and has a solid hold on one of the NFC wild card spots. Pittsburgh has been an embarrassment in their last five games.

Pick: Green Bay

Tampa Bay at Seattle (-7)
Oh great; another NFC West match-up. I hate this f***ing division and its crappy teams . Seattle is a different team at home and the Bucs have reverted back to what they were at the beginning of the season.

Pick: Seattle

Minnesota at Carolina (+7)
This is how bad the Sunday games are this weekend; NBC isn't flexing this game out of prime time. All the Panthers have right now is the running game and the Vikings have shown that they can shut that down all season. The Vikings need this one to shore up the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Pick: Minnesota

Monday, Dec. 21

N.Y. Giants at Washington (+3)
Washington has played with real heart the last few weeks and will get its first of two chances to ruin two of their NFC East foes’ seasons with this game here, and next week’s against Dallas. The Giants' defense has been null and void for weeks now, but can Washington score against them? Washington has looked good lately, though.  I’m pouring bourbon on top of my head and have a lit match ready.

Pick: Washington