Green Bay Packers-Pittsburgh Steelers Preview: A Sackfest in the Making

The Green Bay Packers travel to Heinz Field to take on the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday in what could be a season-defining contest for both teams.

The skidding Steelers would be officially eliminated with a loss after having started the season 6-2. By contrast, the Packers look to complete their recovery from a 4-4 start that culminated in a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what looks to be their only victory.

In the process, the Packers have two chances to lock up a playoff birth with a win: Either the Dallas Cowboys, in the middle of their annual December slide, lose on the road against the unbeaten New Orleans Saints, or if the struggling New York Giants lose at division rival Washington. Chances are, at least one of those will come to pass.

So here is how the Packers and Steelers matchup:

Packers passing attack vs. Steelers pass defense: advantage, Packers

The Packers have the ninth-ranked passing attack in the league at 254.2 yards per game. Aaron Rodgers is one of only four quarterbacks in the league with a passer rating over 100 (102.5) and among league leaders in both red zone and third-down passing.

Pittsburgh is only the 13th -ranked passing defense in the NFL, giving up 209.2 yards per game. However, they are second in the league in sacks with 39, and they have yet to face the line that is the worst in the league at pass blocking; by contrast, the only team ahead of them to the two played, Minnesota, got over a third of their sacks in their two games against the Packers—i.e. the Steelers pass rush is better.

True, Green Bay’s line has given up just seven sacks in the last three games, but none of the teams faced were in the top half of the league in sacks. Stopping the Steelers pass rush is key in this game—in all four Packers losses, the team has yielded six-plus sacks; in all nine victories, the opponents have had five or fewer.

Packers rushing attack vs. Steelers rush defense: big advantage, Steelers

Green Bay has a solid rushing attack, ranking 13th in yards with 120.2 yards per game. Ryan Grant is ninth in the league in yards and 12th in yards per carry among backs with a dozen or more carries per game. However, Pittsburgh is first in the league in yards per game (84.9) and third in yards per carry (3.7).

Steelers passing attack vs. Packers pass defense: advantage, Packers

Pittsburgh is 12th in the league in passing yards with 249 per game, but fifth worst in yielding sacks. The Packers are third defensively, giving up 187 per game, and in the top half of the league in sacks…Sunday will be a great game for fans of sacks.

Steelers rushing attack vs. Packers rush defense: big advantage, Packers

Green Bay has the second-best run defense in yards per game (85) and yards per carry (3.6). Pittsburgh has an average rushing attack, ranking 16th in the league with 113.7 yards per game, and is 18th in yards per carry with 4.2.

Special Teams: advantage, Steelers

Pittsburgh has a sub-par special teams unit, allowing more return yards than they get on both punts and kicks. However, their kickers are pretty good: Daniel Sepulveda averages a mediocre 43.7 yards per punt but has landed 25 kicks inside the 20-yard line to just three touchbacks ; Jeff Reed has hit on 18 of 22 field goals (81.8 percent).

That is way better than Green Bay’s special teams, which as Frasier Crane would say, would prefer the term “challenged” (see the episode entitled, “Love Stinks” ).

They give up almost twice as many yards per punt return as they get, more yards per kick return, and their kickers stink: Mason Crosby has hit just 75 percent of his field goals and is on a run of missing nearly half in November and December, and Jeremy Kapinos has nine touchbacks to only 14 kicks downed inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.

Intangible/other: advantage, Steelers

The injury list does not favour the home team, as they will be without the backbone of their defense, Troy Polamalu . However, they have been without him for a significant enough portion of the season to affect the defensive stats, and it is probably on par with the Packers’ loss of Al Harris and Aaron Kampman . Most other players are likely to play.

Green Bay has a definite advantage in turnover ratio (+18 to –5), and is playing much better football of late, winning five in a row while the Steelers have lost five. However, the Packers are more highly penalized than Pittsburgh, and the bottom-line is the Packers do not need this win like the Steelers do, and there is no greater intangible than urgency.

In all likelihood, the Packers will finish in the fifth seed in the NFC whether we win or lose this game. They will talk about its importance, but much of that is hollow. Also, Green Bay does not strike me as a good enough team to expect six wins in a row from.

While Pittsburgh knows it has in all probability blown a playoff spot, they have a reasonable chance of landing one if they win out. For some of the games they have lost in the stretch, injuries played a factor beyond what they will Sunday.

Even without the playoffs, championship teams have pride. They will need this win to salvage some respect, and will not overlook the Packers like they may have the Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, and Kansas City Chiefs; they also did not have the same desperation against the latter two opponents. They do not strike me as a team that will lose a sixth in a row, especially at home.

Thus, I am picking the upset: Steelers 23, Packers 20

I originally wrote this article for Sports Scribes .