How To Select a Successful Fantasy Football Quarterback

One of the biggest errors that people make when selecting a fantasy quarterback is not that they select a bad quarterback itself. While there are always injury problems and some players that disappoint, most people are going to get a quarterback that is going to put up good numbers.

The problem most people have in selecting a quarterback is the value. They select a quarterback way too high, and in the process they sacrifice great running backs or wide receivers that could help their team more.

The first thing you have to do is decide what constitutes a great fantasy-football season. There are plenty of QBs that can get you 3,000 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. If you are going to pick a quarterback in the early rounds (1-4), you have to get a player that you can start 16 games per season. To select a guy that high, only to sub him out against tough matchups, is inexcusable.

What I’m looking for is not only a guy that can start every game, but I’m looking for guys that give great production, week in and week out. Here are the benchmarks I would use in selecting a quarterback in the first four rounds. 

1) Over 4,000 yards 

There have been 30 instances since 2000 where a quarterback has passed for over 4,000 yards. That averages out to about 3.75 instances per season. 4,000-yards passing averages out to 250-yards passing per start, assuming the quarterback starts 16 games.

In a league where you get 1 point per 25 yards passing, that is 10 fantasy points per week. Quarterbacks that get less than 4,000 yards passing can still be very productive, but the further away they get from that number, the more you are going to rely on touchdown passes to get consistent scoring.

2) Over 30 touchdown passes

You wouldn’t think it would be that hard to get to 30 touchdown passes. Very few people get very excited when their quarterback throws two touchdown passes in a single game.

However, to get to 30 touchdown passes, a QB only needs to average 1.875 touchdowns per game over 16 starts to get those 30 touchdown passes. 30 touchdown passes has only happened 17 times since 2000, which illustrates why you need to get passing yards from your quarterback, too.

That is what made Ben Roethlisberger a tough play last year. Even though he had 32 touchdown passes, he had only 3,154 yards. That makes him a tough play when he isn’t scoring touchdowns, which is what he did for many games last year.

Favre was the gold standard in that regard, recording eight 30-touchdown seasons for his career. That is double Manning and Marino, who own four each. 

3) Over 100.0 QB rating

This is another one I don’t think people realize how hard it is to obtain. This has only happened 15 times since 2000. Troy Aikman, John Elway, and Brett Favre never accomplished a 100.0 rating in their career. Marino only did it once in his record-setting 1984 season. Those are all Hall of Famers, or in Favre’s case, a future Hall of Fame QB.

If you can get a guy with that efficiency, it means he is combining passing yards and touchdowns without turning the ball over a lot. In fantasy football, where players are penalized for interceptions, that is huge.

So who has had the best fantasy seasons since 2000? 

Here are 10 great seasons that come to mind:

Name	Year	Comp	Att	Yds	Tds	Int	Rating
Tom Brady	2007	398	578	4806	50	8	117.2
Peyton Manning	2004	336	497	4557	49	10	121.1
Daunte Culpepper	2004	379	548	4717	39	11	110.9
Kurt Warner	2001	375	546	4830	36	22	101.4
Daunte Culpepper	2000	297	474	3937	33	16	98.0*
Tony Romo	2007	335	520	4211	36	19	97.4
Rich Gannon	2002	418	618	4689	26	10	97.3
Peyton Manning	2006	362	557	4397	31	9	101.0
Peyton Manning	2000	357	551	4413	33	15	94.7
Jeff Garcia	2000	355	561	4278	31	10	97.6

     *Culpepper also rushed for 470 yards and seven touchdowns

What can we draw from these seasons?

There are a number of interesting things that come to mind.

Receivers, Receivers, Receivers

If you don’t think receivers make a difference for a quarterback’s numbers, take a look at this list. Tom Brady had Randy Moss. Daunte Culpepper had Chris Carter and Moss in 2000, and Moss again in 2004. Peyton Manning had Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Kurt Warner had Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Rich Gannon had Rice and Tim Brown. Tony Romo had Terrell Owens. Jeff Garcia had Owens and Rice.

Even if you take great seasons that I didn’t list, like Favre in 2001, McNabb in 2004, or Palmer in 2005 (they had over 30 touchdowns and a better rating than Gannon, but about 800 yards less passing), McNabb and Palmer were dependent on Owens, Chad Johnson, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. 

Favre is really the only exception to the rule. He had three 30-touchdown seasons since 2000 with Donald Driver, Javon Walker, and Antonio Freeman, none of which appear headed to Canton. For him to own the NFL record for pass completions, attempts, yards, and touchdowns is amazing, considering the receiving talent he played with over the years.

Again, though, Favre hurt fantasy owners with his higher interception total, which also partially explains his NFL record for interceptions.

Drew Brees had a couple 4,400-yard passing seasons, but no 30-touchdown seasons or 100.0 QB ratings, other than 2004 when he threw for only 3,159 yards. 

Trent Green threw for 4,591 yards in 2004, but had only 27 touchdowns and 17 picks. It is safe to say there have been a lot of impressive seasons since 2000, but these are the 10 that stand out to me. 

The theme that stands out to me is that not every quarterback on this list is headed to the Hall of Fame. However, every quarterback who has a season on this list played with a future Hall of Fame wide receiver.

What is also interesting about this list is that only one of the quarterbacks on this list won the Super Bowl that same season, which is Manning in 2006. That also goes to show you that winning a Super Bowl is about more than how well the quarterback plays, or how well his receivers do that season.

Receiving-Threat Running Backs

Most of these QBs had guys that could catch out of the backfield. Warner had Marshall Faulk. Manning had Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai. Gannon and Garcia had Charlie Garner. Culpepper had Smith.

Probably the instances of quarterbacks having the worst running-back play were Brady in 2007 and Culpepper in 2004, both of whom had Randy Moss.  

Culpepper was a great threat to run, which minimized his need to throw the ball to backs. Brady played in a lot of four and five-wide receiver sets that featured short passes to Wes Welker, Kevin Faulk, and Ben Watson. 

You aren’t necessarily looking for a team that has a Hall of Fame running back like LaDainian Tomlinson. However, it is nice to have a guy that can catch the ball out of the backfield and pick up a lot of valuable yards after the catch.

Experience

With the exception of Culpepper in 2000 and Romo in 2007, none of these quarterbacks were extremely short on experience. All either had started a lot of years in the league, or in Garcia’s case had played in the CFL. 

The reason experience is such a factor is because the longer a player has been in an offense, the more comfortable he is going to be in that offense. I think we often make too big of a deal about whether an offense is West Coast, Air Coryell, K-Gun, Run-and-Shoot, etc. Offensive systems really aren't that relevant, as long as the quarterback is getting passing attempts. None of Herm Edwards's quarterbacks need apply. 

However, we have seen several quarterbacks do well in different offenses.  Offenses evolve to fit a quarterbacks’ strengths and the players around them. 

Again, Favre is a perfect example.

In 2007, he looked like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady while running three, four, and five-WR sets. He was calling plays at the line of scrimmage. He was in the shotgun.

That offense was technically a variation of the West Coast offense, but the team tweaked it to play to the strength of the team, which was the wide receivers.  Favre didn’t play in anything that resembled that in 1995-1997. If you compare that offense to what Holmgren and Seattle are running, they look nothing alike. 

Good teams don’t get bogged down in offensive systems. They have a base that they work from, and they tweak and adjust it to fit the personnel they have on the team.

If you have a quarterback that has played a number of years, and skilled position players that possess both a deep threat and after-the-catch ability in the system, the fantasy points will take care of themselves.

What is important is that you look at the skill-position players more than you are bogged down in worrying about what system they play in. Quarterbacks can put up huge numbers; whether it is playing with a vertical attack like the Rams utilized in 2001, or a lot of short passes and yards after the catch like Gannon used in 2002.

Looking at past trends, these are the five players that I think are best equipped to have 4,000 yards passing, 30 touchdown passes, and ratings around 100.0 this season.

1)  Tom Brady—He has everything. The Patriots have the receiver you are looking for in Randy Moss, and Wes Welker is a great complement. They have the tight end in Ben Watson, who just needs to stay healthy. Maroney is an emerging running back. I wouldn’t expect Brady to have 50 touchdown passes again, but I think 4,000-plus yards, 30-35 touchdowns, and a 100.0 QB rating are very realistic against a very soft schedule—Middle First-Round Pick.

 2) Peyton Manning—He also has everything. Marvin Harrison is the only question mark on the offense, but Manning did well when he missed time last year. Wayne is a great No. 1. Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark give him other good targets. Joseph Addai is a great running back. I would also expect 4,000-plus yards, 25-30 touchdown passes, and a rating close to 100.0. I like him better than Romo, because he doesn’t traditionally throw many picks—Late First-Round to Early Second-Round Pick.

 3) Tony Romo—The only thing that has me holding back on him is the interceptions. He had 19 last year. If I were certain he could keep those down, I would have him over Manning, because I don’t think the Colts have a receiver like Terrell Owens. Owens and Jason Witten are great targets, and Marion Barber gives them good balance. I would expect 4,000-plus yards, 28-32 touchdown passes, and a rating just under 100.0—Late Second-Round Pick.

 4) Drew Brees—He has had over 4,400-yards passing in Sean Payton’s offense in both 2006 and 2007. The problem is that last year, he started off with only one touchdown and 11 picks in his first four games. That doesn’t help fantasy owners who lost four games with his pathetic play. He has to be more consistent. The reason he isn’t consistent is because he has a lot of young skill-position players and a questionable defense.  Reggie Bush and Marques Colston are both entering their third year, which bodes well for Brees. He should be poised for another 4,200-plus yard season with 25-30 touchdown passes and a rating near 100.0—Early Third Round Pick.

 5) Carson Palmer—Another guy that wouldn’t be a question mark if you knew which Chad Johnson would show up. With Chad and T.J. you have excellent wide receivers. With a bad defense and a questionable running game, you have a team that needs to throw the ball a lot. I think Palmer will be around 4,000 yards again and will be in the 25-30 touchdown pass range. The only question mark is if he will decrease his 20 interceptions. Given that the Bengals have a lot of the same weaknesses they had last year, I would say those would continue to plague him. Late Third Round Pick.

Biggest Danger: Derek Anderson

He had a good fantasy season in 2007. He saved me in a couple leagues where I didn’t get good quarterback production. Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth, Kellen Winslow, and Jamal Lewis give him nice skill players to work with. He has everything at the skill positions you could ask for. 

However, his danger is twofold.

1) Can he cut down on his interceptions?

and

2) Can he hold off Brady Quinn?

When you combine that with him having only one year of starting experience, he is more dangerous than the players listed above. You have to take him, because the Browns offense looks too dangerous to pass up. But be careful about picking him too high.

While he is a good player to add, he could kill you if you take him in the second or third round. You really shouldn’t be looking at him until the fourth or fifth round.

Sleeper: Jay Cutler

Brandon Marshall should be healthy for camp, and Selvin Young wants to go for 2,000 yards. He showed up in minicamps in great shape. There are too many question marks with this team (the defense, running game, and receiving corps, not to mention that this is Cutler’s first season playing with a diabetes diagnosis) to put him in the elite group.

I don’t think his diabetes will be a concern, given the medical technology at the disposal of the NFL. Still, it doesn’t help his stock. He played well in stretches last year, and his young skill-position players are rounding into form.

He has all the physical tools. 3,500 to 3,800 yards, 22-25 touchdown passes, and a rating in the high 80s to low 90s is not out of the question. Sixth to Seventh Round.

Super Sleeper: Matt Leinart—He hasn’t proven that he possesses either the maturity or talent to play at the NFL level. Word is that he is impressing the Cardinals' coaching staff with his command of the offense, yet Warner continues to take snaps with the first team.

If he plays like many believe he is capable, he has the receivers to have a monster year. However, the defense and running game have a lot of questions, and with Warner waiting in the wings, he is too much of a risk to take very highly. 10th-round pick or later.

I hope this gives you some perspective for selecting quarterbacks this year.  Remember, the more talented skill-position players a team has, the better the chances that the quarterback has a stellar season. Good luck.

Derek Lofland is the NFL director at Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com