For Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox Should Ship Jacoby Ellsbury, Not Clay Buchholz

According to ESPN analysts, Adrian Gonzalez will be dealt to Boston in the next ten days.  Also, according to ESPN analysts, Gonzo will stay put.  Trying to follow these "experts" gossipy flow of information and misinformation reminds me of trying to figure out when we'd be going to Disneyland while my parents debated whether we should go at all.  If something happens, at least ESPN can claim they told us so.

In gyms, bars and local sports networks across the country, these competing rumors have at least sparked an interesting debate regarding exactly which players Boston should ship to San Diego.  While everyone agrees that the deal would require a number of minor-league prospects from Casey Kelly to Lars Anderson to Josh Reddick, they disagree on the central piece: Ellsbury or Buchholz?

Ship Ellsbury.  Why?  Two words: Scott Boras.

Although both Ellsbury and Buchholz are relatively inexpensive right now, that is likely to change.  Around the same time Adrian will be seeking a major contract extension, Mr. Boras will be doing everything he can to convince the world that Jacoby Ellsbury is worth a gargantuan sum.  Given Scotty's track record, the 2008 Red Sox Rookie of the Year will get such a sum. 

In fact, Jacoby will be over paid.  His contract will be huge, and his production likely won't meet his salary.

Buchholz, on the other hand, will probably remain relatively affordable.  If he develops into an ace, great.  You sign him to an extension, or let him go for picks.  But if he remains a good number 3 or 4 starter, you can keep him long term at an affordable rate.  If anything, Buchholz is likely to out-perform his salary.

In the end, would you rather negotiate with Scott Boras or Bobby Straface?  Exactly.