John Lackey Signs with Boston

John Lackey has reportedly reached agreement with the Red Sox on a five-year $85 million deal, pending a physical by Lackey.

On paper, it’s a good decision by the Red Sox, at least compared to the Yankees’ decision to sign A. J. Burnett last year for five years and $82.5 million.  Lackey is a year younger than Burnett was last off-season, and Lackey had been the better pitcher over the course of their careers up to the signing their mega-deals.

That being said, the Yankees have much deeper pockets to swallow a deal like this if it goes bad.  The Red Sox are hardly poor, but nobody has revenue streams like the New York teams, so it will hurt the Sox more if Lackey doesn’t perform.

Also, Lackey was limited to 163.1 and 176.1 innings pitched, respectively, the last two seasons.  After five consecutive seasons pitching between 198.1 IP and 224 IP from 2003 through 2007, there’s are real possibility that Lackey’s arm is running out of juice (i.e. has a major arm injury coming in the next couple of seasons).

If 2008 and 2009 were just bumps in the road, and Lackey can give the Red Sox three strong years in the next five, the Sox will get their money’s worth.  If not (and unless he helps them win another World Series), then the Sox paid too much.  At this moment, I’d rate the odds at about even of either scenario playing out.