Kendall v. Olivo

The Royals just signed catcher Jason Kendall to a two-year deal for what is reported to be around $4 million guaranteed.  Was this a good move in light of the fact that the Royals refused to exercise their mutual option on Miguel Olivo for $3.3 million for the 2010?

Kendall’s OPS numbers the last three seasons were .610, .651 and .636 — pretty poor.  Olivo’s were much better at .667, .722 and .782.

However, Olivo’s on-base percentages are just terrible.  I looked at Kendall’s and Olivo’s OBP and OPS on the road over the last three years combined, in order to take into account that the Royals play in what has generally been a very good hitters’ park.  Kendall’s three-year road totals are .320 and .649, while Olivo’s road totals were .276 and .726.

Does a slugging percentage 121 points higher make up for an on-base percentage 44 points lower?  That’s a good question, and one I don’t really know the answer to.   It probably depends in part on where the player bats in the line-up and whether the line-up as a whole needs more power or more guys on base.

Kendall is  a better choice as an American League No. 9 hitter, since he’s got a better chance to get on base ahead of the top of the order.  Olivo, on the other hand, would probably be a better No. 7 hitter in either league, because some of his homeruns would come with middle-of-the-lineup guys on base.

The conventional wisdom is that Kendall is better defensively and better to handle a young pitching staff.  However, he’s definitely an offensive liability at this point in his career.  He’s cheaper, at least on a yearly basis, than Olivo would have been.  However, one can’t help but wonder if he will be yet another Royal player to lead the American League in lowest OPS among players with at least as many plate appearances if he’s the Royals’ starting catcher in 2010 and 2011.