Nats Make a Good Move

I’ve been bashing the Nationals a lot lately, because, generally speaking, they make moves like the team with the worst record in baseball.  However, they just made a move, that while minor, is a good one, and they deserve some recognition for it.

They obtained Brian Bruney from the Yankees for the player the Yankees wanted available in the Rule 5 Draft, Jamie Hoffman.  The Nats had the first pick, but I’d bet dollars to donuts they picked the player the Yankees wanted, since the Bruney trade had already been announced.

Now, Bruney is not a great pitcher, but he’s more of a proven commodity than anyone available in the Rule 5 draft, having made 230 major league appearances with a 4.27 career major league ERA through age 27.  I’m not particularly impressed with Hoffman, who will be an old 25 in 2010 (turns 26 in August), but even if the Nats had selected the player with the most talent available in the Rule 5 Draft, I don’t think they would have obtained a player with any more upside than Bruney.

Bruney is a classic example of a pitcher with good stuff and not enough control.  Aside from the numbers listed above, he’s pitched 221.1 major innings with 188 hits and 153 walks allowed and 218 Ks.  Through age 27, he has recorded 8.9 Ks per nine innings pitched, a 1.42 Ks-t0-BBs ratio and a 1.54 WHIP.

The reason I say that Bruney’s got upside is that through 2008, David Aardsma, who had a break out season in 2009, had a career major league line of 144.2 major league innings pitched, 149 hits and 90 walks allowed and 139 Ks.  That means Aardsma recorded 8.6 Ks per nine innings, had a 1.54 Ks-to-BBs ratio and a 1.65 WHIP.  Overall, these numbers very similar to Bruney’s.

Aardsma had his breakout season at age 27, a year younger than Bruney will be in 2010; Aardsma is a former 1st Round Draft pick, while Bruney was a 12th Round pick; and the major leagues and high minors are full of pitchers with great stuff who never find their control.  In other words, I’m not saying that Bruney will be the next David Aardsma.  Instead, I’m saying that Bruney has a realistic chance of putting it together and having a breakthrough season in 2010 or 2011.

Trading the first Rule 5 draft pick for Brian Bruney is a good move, particularly when one considers that even if Bruney doesn’t get any better than he is now, he should still be able to help the Nationals between now and when he becomes a free agent, given how bad the Nationals’ pitching has been the last two seasons.

In order to get better, bad teams in smaller markets have to find inexpensive young players with upside and get a little lucky.  It’s a lot easier to get lucky with a mediocre pitcher with great stuff and poor control than it is with a mediocre pitcher with average stuff and average control.  The Brian Bruney’s of the world occasionally develop control and become the David Aardmas of 2009.  It’s a lot less common for the pitchers with average stuff and average control to improve enough in either category to become stars.