2008 NFL Preview: AFC West

The AFC West was probably the most disappointing division in 2007.  AFC West teams combined to go 10-22 on the road and had a combined 14-26 record out of the division.  The Chargers were expected to compete for the Super Bowl after going 14-2 in 2006.  They started 5-5, before winning their last six games to close the season and advance to the AFC Championship Game. 

The Denver Broncos were a big player in free agency and were supposed to compete with the Chargers for the division.  They were a very disappointing 7-9.  The Chiefs were going through a youth moment and while making the playoffs again was not necessarily expected, they fell from 9-7 to 4-12. 

Finally, you have the Raiders who actually exceeded many people’s expectations, but just didn’t have enough talent to win more than four games.

The AFC West has been owned by the San Diego Chargers the last couple of seasons.  Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC West.

1)  San Diego Chargers

‘07 Record: 11-5

Points Scored: 412(5th)

Points Allowed: 284 (5th)

Playoff Result: Lost AFC Championship Game

2008 Strength of Schedule:  108-148 (.422) (31st in NFL)

Strengths:  The Chargers have done an excellent job in recent years drafting players and the result is a team that has many strengths. 

They used those strengths to advance to the AFC Championship Game, despite the injuries they had to Rivers, LT, and Gates.  It was a very inspiring effort that they should be applauded for. 

Therefore, the Chargers had the luxury of not having to be active in free agency and being able to use their draft picks to shore up depth.

Let’s start with the defense, which was the strength of the 2007 season.  The Chargers terrorized quarterbacks in 2007.  They ranked fifth in sacks with 42 last year. 

Shawne Merriman has become a premier pass rusher.  Many people thought he had a down-year and he still recorded 12.5 sacks. 

Shaun Phillips had 8.5 sacks and flies under the radar with Merriman grabbing most of the attention.

Stephen Cooper is going to have to sit the first four games of the NFL season, which does not help an inside linebacker position that is not the strength of the defense to begin with.

The Chargers ranked first in quarterback ratings allowed at 70.0.  Their high number of interceptions drove that.  They had a league best 30 interceptions, eight more than the second place teams Indianapolis and Tennessee. 

To put that in perspective, 14 interceptions, which are eight less than Indy and Tennessee, ranked 23rd in the NFL.  The Chargers were in a class by themselves. Antonio Cromartie had a lot to do with that as he recorded a league-best 10 interceptions despite only starting eight games.

Antoine Cason was added to the defensive backs as a first round pick and should help the Chargers nickel and dime packages.  You can never have enough defensive backs in a playoff game against the Colts and Patriots.

On offense, L.T. didn’t have a record-setting year, but he was still amazing.  He managed to lead the NFL in rushing with 1,474 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and a league-best 15 rushing touchdowns. 

That speaks to how well the Chargers offensive line played, especially in the second half of the season.  Gates was also great last season.  He had 984 yards receiving and nine touchdowns. 

The interesting thing to watch will be how Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson do now that they have a full year together.  Jackson came close, but failed to record a 100-yard game in 2007.  He had no multi touchdown games.  

Chris Chambers did neither of those things in his Charger career.  If the Chargers are going to finally contend for the Super Bowl, they need to get more production out of their wide receivers.  They are receiving almost exclusively single coverage and need to make teams pay for that.

On special teams, Darren Sproles is a very dangerous return man. Mike Scifres is a very solid punter and Nate Kaeding has been a mainstay among the best kickers in the league the last two seasons. 

Weaknesses:  The Chargers had two main weaknesses in 2008.  They weren’t very solid against the run, at times.  They ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed; part of that was because Adrian Peterson recorded a 295-yard game against them. 

If you take that game out, they are closer to the top 10.  Still, in the playoffs Maroney had 122 rushing yards and one touchdown.  Some weeks the Chargers were great against the run.  Other weeks they were run over.  They need to be a little more consistent in that regard.

The bigger weakness is the same thing it was entering last season with a couple wrinkles.  Is Philip Rivers the real deal?  He did not have a good follow up to his Pro Bowl season. 

He went from 3,388 yards to 3,152 yards.  He went from 22 touchdowns to 21 touchdowns.  He went from nine interceptions to 15.  His completion percentage went from 61.7 to 60.2.  He went from a rating of 92.0 to 82.4. 

He just didn’t improve in any area.  He also gained a reputation for being a head case and yelling at fans.  That was particularly evident in the Colts playoff game.  He needs to tone that down and act like a solid professional and a leader of the team.  He has too much talent for people to be talking about that instead of his play.

The wrinkle in the Chargers offense is all of the injuries the Chargers are coming back from this season.  Tomlinson had just two carries in the AFC Championship Game and while his knee did not require surgery, there are still concerns when knee injury and LT are mentioned in the same sentence. 

That makes the loss of Turner to the Falcons even more significant.  Hester was drafted out of LSU to team with Sproles to fill that void. 

Gates has a toe problem that has his status for the opener in doubt.  Rivers had an ACL injury that was expected to have six months of recovery time.  He is hopeful for training camp.

It is never good to have one star player coming off injury.  To have three injury question marks to the three best players on the offense is a huge concern.  The Chargers need to hope these guys are ready by the opener.  Without those three healthy, the Chargers will struggle to win even the weak AFC West.

Prediction: If the Chargers were in another division, I would have more concerns.  They couldn’t have started worse in 2007.  They started 1-3 and they still won the division by four games. 

The Broncos have too many issues on run defense, and at their skill positions, they are still not proven.  The Raiders and Chiefs have too many issues to list. 

The Chargers have the second easiest schedule in the NFL and that will serve them well if their players are a little slow to get back into the groove. 

They open with Carolina, at Denver, NY Jets, at Oakland, and at Miami.  That is a schedule they should be able to maneuver even if a few players are slow to get back.  I could see the Chargers being a strong second half team similar to last year.

What I do think the injuries prevent the Chargers from doing is having a better record than the Jags and Patriots.  If they had everyone healthy and ready to go, I probably would have had them with a better record than the Patriots. 

They should still win the AFC West, but still have to open up the playoffs in the first round at home and travel in the second round.  Based on my predictions that would be to New England.  That could make advancing to the Super Bowl, which is the only Charger obstacle not yet hurdled, a difficult task.

San Diego Chargers’ Record: 12-4 – AFC West Divisional Champion; AFC #3 Seed

2) Denver Broncos

‘07 Record: 7-9

Points Scored: 320 (21st)

Points Allowed: 409 (28th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 114-142 (.445) (29th in NFL) 

Strengths:  The Broncos have a nice young nucleus of offensive players.  Jay Cutler is only 25-years old.  He passed for 3,497 yards and 20 touchdowns in his first full year starting.  He posted an 88.1 rating. 

Brandon Marshall had 102 receptions for 1,325 yards.  He is only 24-years old. 

Tony Scheffler had 549 yards receiving and five touchdowns at the tight end spot.  He is only 25-years old. 

Finally, with Travis Henry gone Selvin Young looks to take over the number one spot.  He turns 25 in October.

That gives the Broncos a nice nucleus of young players to grow around.  They need to start getting younger on the offensive line, which they did by selecting Ryan Clady. 

The Broncos zone-blocking scheme is being copied through out the league.  A top 10 rushing offense is something that is taken for granted in Denver.  Even with their running woes in 2007, they managed to finish ninth in yards gained on the ground.

On defense, the Broncos finished in the top 10 in passing yards allowed.  That is expected when the secondary features the corner duo of Bailey and Bly. Lynch is starting to get a little older, but still supports the run well. 

D.J. Williams is a promising young linebacker that struggled as the middle linebacker.  He is expected to play full time on the weak side, which will suit his strengths much better. 

Boss Bailey was brought in giving the Broncos great speed at the outside linebacker spot.

Finally, there is Mike Shanahan.  He has been the Broncos headman since 1995.  The only coach with a longer tenure is Jeff Fisher, who replaced Jack Pardee at the end of the 1994 season.  Shanahan has had only two losing seasons since he arrived in Denver. 

The last time he had a losing record the Broncos bounced back with 11 wins the following year.

Ted Sundquist was fired as the GM, a role he held since 2002.  Mike Shanahan has two Super Bowl rings and a lot of experience.  The Broncos are under pressure to win this year.  They have only been in one AFC Championship Game since 1998. 

The Broncos are expecting that he will turn out a winner soon.  If the Broncos regress in 2008, Shanahan’s job may be in jeopardy.

Weaknesses:  Run defense.  Plain and simple this kept the Broncos from being a playoff team in 2007.  They ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed. 

The front four could not keep anyone from ramming the ball down their throat.  That really hurt Bailey and Bly who anchored the seventh ranked pass defense, but had only eight interceptions.  That was six less than the 14 interceptions Bailey and Williams combined for in 2006.  

If the Broncos can stop the run better, Bailey and Bly should see their pick totals go up.  If they can’t teams will keep the ball on the ground to stay away from Denver’s potent playmaker duo.

They also need to get a better pass rush from their front four. Elvis Dumervil had 12.5 sacks.  The next best individual sack total was a mere four sacks.  That just isn’t going to get the job done.   That is another reason Bailey and Bly didn’t excel in 2007. 

Defensive backs rely on pressure from the front seven to put pressure on the quarterback and force bad decisions.  The Broncos didn’t go out and sign a marquee free agent on the defensive line. 

They have drafted a number of young defensive linemen in the past few drafts.  They took the approach of hoping their younger players would improve and bringing in non-household name talent.

The other problem that confronted the Broncos was their redzone scoring.  The Broncos ranked 11th in yards gained, 13th in passing yards gained, and 9th in rushing yards gained.  The problem was that they ranked only 18th in rushing touchdowns and 16th in passing touchdowns.  That produced the 21st ranked scoring offense.

The Broncos released Travis Henry due to his off-the-field issues and still have some good backs in place.  Selvin Young ranked third among rookie rushers and started only eight games.  Andre Hall showed signs of promise. 

Michael Pittman is a veteran that was signed to give the team some experience.  One of these guys needs to emerge and the most probable candidate is Young.  A good running game and a strong offense will go a long way to helping out the Broncos run defense stay off the field and playing with a lead.

Finally, this team has a glaring special team’s weakness for the first time in many years.  Jason Elam is no longer with the team.  Matt Pratter takes his place and he has some big shoes to fill.  Elam had been with the Broncos since 1993.  He won many close games for the Broncos with clutch kicks last year.  That was evident last year. 

It remains to be seen if the Broncos win some of the close games they have taken for granted for so many years, thanks to Jason Elam, or if Prater is not up to the task.

Prediction: The Broncos are moving in the right direction.  They had to take a step back by going with the young quarterback in Cutler and leaving the inconsistent experience of Jake Plummer. 

While that means they have missed the playoffs for two straight years, Cutler gives this team a chance to compete for the Super Bowl down the road, something they never could have done with Plummer.

The problem is that the run defense collapsed overnight.  Denver went from 12th against the run in 2006 to 30th in 2007.  The Broncos really haven’t done anything to fix that problem. 

In a division with Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and Darren McFadden, that is a risky proposition.  All the teams in this division would love nothing more than to stay committed to the running game.

I think the Broncos will compete with the Browns and Titans for the final playoff spot.  I think Cutler, Marshall, and Young will all have a big year.  I also think the Broncos have too many issues with their running game.  

I look for the Broncos to better their 2007 record, but miss the playoffs by a game to the Browns.  The Browns’ defense is nothing to write home about, but their offense is a lot more explosive.

Denver Broncos’ Record: 9-7 – AFC West 2nd Place; No Playoffs

3) Oakland Raiders

‘07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 283 (23rd)

Points Allowed: 398 (26th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 112-142 (.438) (30th in NFL)

Strengths:  The Raiders actually made a lot of strides in 2007.  The coaching staff and players got along much better than they did in 2006.  That is why it is surprising that Al Davis would be fighting with his young coach, Lane Kiffin after his first year on the job. 

While Al Davis is a hard owner to predict, there is no way that a reasonable owner would have expected more than 4-6 wins with the mess Kiffin took over.  Kiffin had no NFL experience and was taking over a team that had scored just 168 points the year before. 

While 283 points scored ranked only 23rd, that was nine spots higher than 2006.  The Raiders won four games and were competitive in six others.  That was done without the benefit of their first round pick JaMarcus Russell.  He threw only 66 passes last season. 

I would say Kiffin got good results out of the offense and the team in general.

The offense has the potential to be even better in 2008.  Darren McFadden appears to be the real deal.  He has everything you could ask for.  Speed, strength, and a good running style. 

Don’t expect him to have the year Peterson had in 2007, simply because the Oakland line is nowhere near the Minnesota line.

McFadden is signed and will be in camp on day one.  He has the talent to make an immediate impact.  If he is off to a slow start, don’t forget that Justin Fargas had 1,009 yards rushing last season. 

The Raiders have a nice backfield in place.

The Raiders tried to upgrade the receiving corps by signing Javon Walker to a $55 million dollar contract.  That was the theme of the Raider offseason, Just Spend Baby! 

I think Walker will upgrade the receiving corps, but remember he has had two knee injuries since 2005, plus the Williams incident in Denver and the new Las Vegas incident where he sustained serious injuries in a robbery. 

In addition, I have read reports that he didn’t show up in the best of shape to Raider workouts in May, something that was a disappointment given the money Oakland threw his way.  How he does in 2008 is anything but a certainty at this point.

The pass defense should be strong again.  The Raiders gave up the eighth fewest passing yards in the NFL and the fourth fewest passing touchdowns. 

Signing Wilson away from the Giants and trading for Hall from the Raiders really gives a boost to their secondary.  They lost Washington to the Ravens in a trade, but still appear to have a very strong secondary in place.

Weaknesses:  The Raiders success on pass defense is somewhat of a mirage.  Yes, they have some good talent there.  But, when your team gives up the second most rushing yards in the NFL, the most yards per attempt, and the most rushing touchdowns teams aren’t going to waste their time throwing the ball. 

Keep in mind that teams passed the ball the second fewest times against Oakland. 

Even a team like Green Bay that relied heavily on the pass was able to basically rest Favre coming off an injury against the Cowboys when they played the Raiders.  Favre threw the ball just 23 times in a 38-7 victory as Ryan Grant gashed them for a regular season high 29 carries and 156 yards.

If the Raiders are going to compete in this division with LT, Denver’s running system, and Larry Johnson they have to be able to stop the run.  They signed Thomas Kelly to a record contract for a defensive lineman, something that was boggling to the mind. 

Warren Sapp is gone from the fold this year.  He was clearly on the downside of his career.  Still, the Raiders really didn’t address the defensive line, which is the most important part of the run defense. 

On offense, the passing game is going to really struggle at times this year.  Russell had only 66 attempts in 2007, so he is going to be learning on the job.  I’ve already talked about Walker’s question marks.  After him and Curry, there isn’t a lot of proven talent at the receiving corps. 

Zach Miller is a young emerging tight end.   The first year of starting for a quarterback is always a difficult chore.   With below average receiving I expect Russell to show signs of greatness, but also struggle quite a bit.

Prediction:  Things are getting better for Oakland.  They are getting a young nucleus of players on offense and are starting to bring some talent in on defense. The Raiders and Jets were the most active teams in free agency and fans are going to be excited that a winning season is near.

They still have a few problems.  San Diego has a young nucleus in place and is not ready to surrender the division to Oakland.  Denver also has a young nucleus on offense and while they have their own troubles on defense, they have better receivers, offensive line, and secondary.  It is going to be hard for the Raiders to break through that in 2008.

However, I only see the Chargers window being open for a couple more seasons.  Once Tomlinson turns 30, they are going to have some big question marks. 

Denver could be going through a coaching change if Shanahan doesn’t make it back to the playoffs.  Whoever can draft the best between Kansas City and Oakland, will be in an excellent position to shoot toward the top of the division in 2009 or 2010. 

Oakland has a head start, because the hardest thing to find is the quarterback.  The Chiefs don’t look like they have found their quarterback, which is worse than the Raiders who are still determining if they have found theirs. 

As it stands right now, though, they will play teams competitively, probably win some games against the likes of Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo, Atlanta, but still hover around the 6-10 mark.

Oakland Raiders’ Record:  6-10 – AFC West 3rd Place; No Playoffs

4) Kansas City Chiefs

‘07 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 226 (31st)

Points Allowed: 335 (14th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 116-140 (.453) (26th in NFL)

Strengths: The Chiefs were not expected to do much after having an absolutely terrible preseason and Larry Johnson holding out until the start of the season. 

They started off 4-3 and looked like they might be able to compete in a division that saw San Diego and Denver struggle out of the gates.  Larry Johnson would get hurt in game number eight, which they lost to the Green Bay Packers. 

The Chiefs lost another eight games to close the season.

One thing the Chiefs had was a pretty nice pass defense last season.  They finished ranked fifth in passing yards allowed.  They also finished ninth in sacks.  They were also 14th in points allowed. 

However, you can throw all that out the window, because their best defender, Jared Allen, is no longer with the team.  He led the NFL with 15.5 sacks and was the team’s best defender.  He was traded to the Minnesota Vikings before the draft for draft picks.

The Chiefs went with a youth movement and the result was one of the best drafts in the NFL.  They should be better than 28th against the run. 

Glenn Dorsey is one of the best defensive tackle prospects to come out of college in a number of years and he should immediately help them in that regard.  Brandon Flowers should also help the passing game from the cornerback position as he replaces Ty Law.

On offense, many people expected the Chiefs to struggle through the air in 2007.  The Chiefs have some good targets that put up solid numbers, despite their QB woes. 

Tony Gonzalez is still among the most productive tight ends in the NFL.  He led all tight ends in receiving yards and had five touchdowns.  Dwayne Bowe finished five yards shy of a 1,000-yard season as a rookie.  He also had five touchdowns.

They are hoping that Brandon Albert can help improve the offensive line and that Jamaal Charles can help give them another back to spell Larry Johnson. 

The Chiefs could have as many as three rookie starters (Dorsey, Albert, and Flowers) as well as Charles, tight end Brad Cottam, and safety DeJaun Morgan contributing as backups.  The Chiefs are in a full-blown rebuilding project.

Weaknesses: Last year I said this about Herm Edwards in my 2007 AFC West predictions: “It took Herman Edwards exactly one year to ruin this offense.  After finishing in the top five for offensive yardage every season of the Vermeil era, and first, first, second, and sixth in points, Herman Edwards destroyed this offense. 

It dropped to 15th in both yards and points in his first year with most of the same players.  As usual, the problem was Herm Edwards refusal to embrace the passing offense, which ranked 22nd last season.

Kansas City fans weren’t happy about that and I admit that I was wrong.  While the passing offense was not their strength when compared to other NFL teams it was actually the strength of this offense. 

I don’t think many people would have guessed the Chiefs would finish 30th in rushing attempts, 32nd in rushing yards, 31st in yards per carry, and tied for 31st in rushing touchdowns.

Part of that was losing Larry Johnson.  When he is healthy, he is among the best backs in all of football.  Remember though that he is going to be 29 and had five games where he was held under 60 yards in 2007. 

The Chiefs did a horrible job of preparing for life without Roaf and Shields and now they have a line that cannot control the line of scrimmage.  Their inability to block is hampering the running game. 

They can’t get their quarterbacks into favorable third down situations.  When you combine those problems with Herm Edwards conservative offense, it has created a situation where this team cannot score any points.

The Chiefs tried to address that by drafting Albert.  He is going to take a couple seasons for him to develop.  He may be moving from guard to tackle, which is a very difficult transition for any player, much less a rookie.  The Chiefs still have a few questions on the offensive line.

It’s hard to predict if the offense is going to step up when you don’t even know which bad quarterback is going to emerge.  Huard played badly last year and Croyle played worse.  Croyle is whom they want to start, as he was a third round pick in 2006.

There gets to be a point where you cease to be a young quarterback and become a bad quarterback instead.  Year three is the year that the NFL brain trust identifies as the year that young quarterbacks should start to see things slow down and be able to make plays. 

If he doesn’t emerge, the Chiefs are going to have to think about taking a quarterback in the first round next year.  Damon Huard is going to be 35-years old and not the quarterback you want to build a young team around.

Prediction: I thought the Chiefs had a great draft.  In my opinion, it was the best in the NFL.  That said, I also maintain the Colts and Patriots could have had the best draft in the NFL had they traded Brady or Manning. 

The only reason the Chiefs had the best draft is they traded their best player in Jared Allen.  While that may turn out to be a great move for the future, it doesn’t necessarily translate into winning a lot of games the following year.

The Chiefs just don’t have a lot of good things going for them now. They used to have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They don’t anymore! 

Johnson used to be the second best back in football.  He is barely a top 10 back right now.  Croyle and Huard are below average quarterbacks. The defense is rebuilding. This is a team in transition.

I look for Gonzalez and Bowe to have good seasons.  I think Johnson will have a rebound year.  Not like what we saw in 2005 and 2006, but 1,000 to 1,100 yards and 7-9 touchdowns. 

However, what gains they make on offense are going to be offset by a rebuilding defense that lost its best player.  If they had Baltimore’s schedule I wouldn’t pick them to win more than three games. 

The lack of strength in their division and their relatively easy schedule should get them to five wins.

Kansas City Chiefs’ Record:  5-11 – AFC West 4th Place; No Playoffs

That is how I see the AFC West playing out in 2008. Next week I will turn my focus to my last division, which is the NFC West.  I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

Derek Lofland is the NFL director for Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com