Fantasy Match-Up Mayhem: What to Expect in Cleveland's Winter Wonderland

Ahh yes, the fantasy playoffs have arrived! This is either the best of times or the worst of times for fantasy owners.  It’s a new season with stiffer competition, the smack talk increases and the waiver wire is scoured more than ever. For those of you who qualified, life is good! For those you who didn’t…have a great summer LOSERS!! Ha-ha!

Waaay back in late August, when most drafts went down, the smart fantasy owners made draft decisions based upon playoff schedules. For example, Tom Brady has some tasty match-ups in Weeks 14-16 (CAR, @BUF, JAC) this year. For those of you who drafted Tom Brady early in hopes he’d recover his 2007 form, your investment is about to pay off. Personally, I’ve been screwed the past two years in my most competitive keeper league by Tony Romo ’s December demise. God I hate the Cowboys, and especially Romo. But….he has helped me win me three consecutive regular season championships, so I can’t complain too much.
 
This week we are going to take a look at which players will likely perform well in Week 14. Let’s start with this Thursday’s match-up between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (weather forecast: 20° F, 60 percent chance of snow, 30MPH winds)

Steelers

QB Ben Roethlisberger     

On paper, Big Ben has a great match-up against a Cleveland secondary that he torched for 417 yards and two touchdowns in Week Six. However, the weather forecast may make you want to lower your expectations for the sixth year star QB from Miami of Ohio. Keep in mind that there have been several great passing performances in worse weather than is expected in Cleveland. Also, Big Ben was born & raised in Ohio and will surely want to put on a show for family & friends. I’m thinking Ben has a field day in the snow and performs well in his hometown.

RB Rashard Mendenhall     

The forecast for Thursday night’s game calls for the type of weather that any big bruising running back, like Mendenhall, prays for. The Steelers, perennially a run-based team, have switched things up a bit this year, focusing on the pass. However, the game-plan might change a bit with the expected snow and winds in Cleveland. I expect Mendenhall to carry the ball at least 25 times and punch it in the end zone at least one time.

WR Hines Ward     

Ward is very questionable for Thursday’s game after tweaking a hamstring late in Sunday’s loss to the Raiders. If he does play, he is most likely the best bet for a solid performance amongst the Steelers’ WR group. Ward tends to play well in bad weather conditions. Upgrade Ward to four mini-footballs if he is active on Thursday night.

WR Santonio Holmes     

Holmes has been on fire the past five weeks averaging nearly seven catches and 100 yards per contest while catching one touchdown in each of the past two games. As of now, it looks like Ward will be a ‘no-go’ for Thursday, making Holmes the default go-to-guy for Big Ben. Look for Holmes to put up another good performance for the Steelers, who are in dire need of a win to keep their diminishing playoff hopes alive.

WR Mike Wallace     

Wallace, who has shown a great deal of promise this season, has cooled off in recent weeks. He’s recorded only five catches in his last four games with a big goose-egg two weeks ago at Baltimore. With Ward likely out for this week’s game, Wallace will be pushed into the starting lineup for the black & gold and has the speed to get behind the Browns’ weak secondary. However, keep the forecast in mind before you start him as the weather may slow the game down quite a bit.

TE Heath Miller     

Miller has only two catches in the past two games. He’s put up some good games this season but has seen Ward & Holmes garner most of Big Ben’s attention in recent weeks. With snow in the forecast, this might be the week that Miller rebounds. It will be difficult for speedsters Holmes & Wallace to gain separation in the snow, so Roethlisberger may be checking down to his TE early and often. Look for Heath Miller to have one of his better games of the year.

Pittsburgh Defense     

Who really knows if the Pittsburgh defense is going to show up? Most fantasy experts predicted them to have a field day with Bruce Gradkowski and the Oakland Raiders last week, but they stunk up the place. Brady Quinn and the Cleveland Browns have put together a couple of pretty good performances of late and should be coming into Thursday’s game brimming with confidence. That being said, you can’t not play the Steelers’ defense against the Cleveland Browns in the snow in what should be a low scoring affair. Play them with confidence.

Browns

QB Brady Quinn     

Is it just me, or is Brady Quinn finally showing some real potential? Last week against a pretty good San Diego defense, Quinn threw for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. Three weeks ago against Detroit, he threw for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns. Although, I am in no way, shape or form suggesting that you start the Notre Dame alum against Pittsburgh, I am suggesting that you consider him for Weeks’ 15 & 16 as the Browns are at Kansas City and then come back home to welcome the Oakland Raiders. These are the types of moves that win you fantasy championships.

RB Jerome Harrison     

Harrison has shown some serious flashes of potential this year for the Browns. Last week against the Chargers was one of those flashes that made people wonder why this guy doesn’t get more touches. In limited action, (he is sharing time with Chris Jennings) he totaled 97 yards on 17 touches and caught two touchdown passes. In what should be a run-based game for both teams, expect Harrison to have the opportunity to produce. Will he produce with that opportunity? I wouldn’t start him against the Steelers’ top ranked run defense.

RB Chris Jennings     

What does Browns’ Head Coach Eric Mangini see in this guy? He hasn’t done much to warrant the opportunity he is being given. His best game was against Detroit three weeks ago when he had 15 touches for 74 yards and never smelled the end zone in a game where 75 points were scored! The only reasonable excuse that I can think of in regard to why Mangini insists on playing Jennings, is the fact that Harrison is only 5’9”, 205LBS and would have a tough time carrying a full workload. Don’t expect Jennings to do much against a tough Steelers defense.

WR Mohamed Massaquoi     

The rookie WR from Georgia has recorded some very respectable performances this season for the Browns. With QB Brady Quinn starting to get a hang of things for the Browns, expect Massaquoi to finish the 2009 season strong. However, temper your expectations for Massaquoi this week against the Steelers, especially with probable weather conditions.
 
WR Josh Cribbs     

Cribbs will always have potential for fantasy owners, especially those who receive points for return yards and touchdowns. I’m not sure why, but I see the Maryland native having a decent game this Thursday. The Browns will be looking for somebody to step up and make a play and Cribbs has more big play potential than anyone else on the roster. Look for Cribbs to get in the end zone on Thursday night either via kick/punt return or end-around.

Cleveland Defense     

If you take any advice from my column, please let it be what you are about to read. DO NOT START THE CLEVELAND DEFENSE. Even with the expected poor weather conditions, the Browns are an unlikely bet to stop Big Ben and the Steelers’ offense. The Steelers are in ‘must-win’ mode and Mike Tomlin has the team fired up. Repeat, DO NOT START THE CLEVELAND DEFENSE.

Alright folks, that wraps up Thursday’s game. Check back soon as I’ll be posting Match-Up’s for the rest Week 14’s slate very soon!