NFL: Packers-Ravens Preview

The 7-4 Green Bay Packers host the 6-5 Baltimore Ravens Monday night, and both teams' seasons may already on the line.

There is no doubt this is true for the Ravens—mark my words: there will not be a 9-7 team to make it in either conference. Losing this would mean the team must win every game the rest of the way, and they still have to play at Pittsburgh, a team they needed overtime to beat at home despite Ben Roethlisberger not playing.

The Packers could lose this one and still have a one-game margin of error. However, with a loss the green and gold would fall out of the playoff picture as of now, and have two tough road games to follow: a division game against a desperate Bears team and then one against the desperate Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

What's more, they finish the season against the Arizona Cardinals, who may be playing for the second seed based on tonight's thrashing of the Vikings.

Let me put it bluntly: I believe there are two losses in those three games. (We should beat the Seahawks at Lambeau since they only beat the Niners because of three or four bad calls. But then we were supposed to beat the Buccaneers, too, so nothing is a given.)

So let's take a look at how the teams match up:

Injuries/Intangibles: Slight Advantage, Packers

With the Packers playing at home, where we are 4-2, and the Ravens on the road, where they are 2-3, this should favour the Packers. But while the Ravens are closer to having their season end, it has not yet, making their sense of desperation higher. The Packers, as the favourite, also have more pressure.

None of that is very significant, however. What is? The Ravens have played a much tougher schedule and have two quality wins (@ Chargers, vs. Steelers) and four losses in which they were within one score. Green Bay has only one quality win (vs. Cowboys) and two close losses (vs. Bengals, @ Vikings).

The Ravens are just plus-four in turnover ratio, while the Packers are plus-17. Since both teams have accrued a lot of penalties, the slight advantage of the Ravens here is negligible.

The injury report is not great for either team. Green Bay is without returner and dimeback Will Blackmon, starting corner Al Harris, center Jason Spitz, and linebackers Aaron Kampman and (back-up) Jeremy Thompson. There are also two other significant offensive line injuries, but Chad Clifton should play (he is listed as probable) and questionable T.J. Lang is only a back-up.

The Ravens' situation is much worse. They are without linebacker Brendon Ayanbadejo and corner Fabian Washington, and have tight end L.J. Smith and linebacker Terrell Suggs listed as doubtful. Furthermore, they have three defensive backs listed as questionable: corner Cary Williams and safeties K.J. Gerard and Ed Reed. And while defensive tackle Haloti Ngata will almost certainly play, he is not going to be 100 percent.

With that many pass rushers and backs out, the Packers vaunted passing attack will be that much more free to roll. This in total is a bit more significant than the intangible edge the Ravens have.

Packers Passing Attack vs. Ravens Pass Defense: Advantage, Packers

The Packers are the sixth-ranked passing attack in the league, averaging 262.8 yards per contest, and rank eighth in yards per play. The Ravens are the 12th-ranked pass defense, yielding 211.3, and rank 19th in yards per play.

Green Bay's stats are inflated by some weak pass defenses—two games against the Lions and one against Cleveland—but the Packers have spent much of five games running out the clock with the game well in hand in the fourth quarter. The Ravens have played three bad passing attacks—the Chiefs and the Browns twice—and have had to face more passing in just three games that were won by two scores.

Packers Rushing Attack vs. Ravens Rush Defense: Big Advantage, Ravens

The Packers average 119.2 yards per game, good enough to rank 13th in both total yards and yards per play. The Ravens give up 97.6 yards per game, good enough for sixth in the league; however, no team gives up fewer yards per play.

While Green Bay has played some tough run defenses (Minnesota twice, San Francisco, and Dallas), the Ravens have played the Bengals, a top rushing offense, twice. Green Bay's numbers are inflated by needing to grind out five games, while the Ravens have never been blown out where they might face teams doing the same.

Packers Pass Defense vs. Ravens Passing Attack: Advantage, Packers

Green Bay ranks seventh in the league by giving up just 192.5 yards per game; they are sixth in yards per play. The Ravens are 13th in both yards per game and yards per play.

The Packers have had to face many teams passing a lot to try to catch up, but also some horrible passing attacks—the Browns, Rams, and Buccaneers are all in the bottom ten of the NFL. The Ravens have never had to abandon the run to make up ground, and have played only the Broncos and Chargers among the top ten pass defenses.

Ravens Rushing Attack vs. Packers Rush Defense: Big Advantage, Packers

The Ravens are barely above average running the ball, ranking 14th in both yards per play and per game (117). The Packers are ranked fourth in the league in yards per game (89.1) and second in yards per carry.

True, the Packers have had to face just one team running out the clock, but this defense has shut down Adrian Peterson twice (a total of 152 yards on 50 carries), Steven Jackson, and Frank Gore. The only back to gash the Packers was Cedric Benson, who is among the best in the league this season. Meanwhile, the only top-ranked rush defense the Ravens have played is the Vikings, and they have tried to run out the clock in three of their games.

Special Teams: Big Advantage, Ravens

True, Baltimore has struggled in the kicking game, missing two potential game-winning field goals and six of 22 overall (77.8 percent), but they made the switch to Billy Cundiff last month, who has only missed one inside of 50 yards. Sam Koch is one of the best punters in the game, and the coverage for both punts and kicks is pretty good. Their punt return game is below average, but their kick returns are above average.

Meanwhile, the Packers have one of the worst special teams units in the league. They rank in the bottom third in every category: punt net average, punt return average, kick return average, kick coverage, and field goal percentage. 'Nuff said.

Prediction: Packers 27, Ravens 23

I originally wrote this article for Sports Scribes .