How Close Did Vegas Get Last Spring Picking the Top College Football Teams?

Hope springs eternal, especially in the spring, when all the college football teams are undefeated and prospects look good. But in Las Vegas, it's all business, setting the odds for the winner and the other teams.

So let's go back to May 4th, 2009, a time when I was in Las Vegas to do an article on sports gambling, and picked up the "official" odds of teams winning the BCS National Championship.

They had Florida as the favorite, as they should; they were a 2/1 favorite. Then things went horribly wrong.

The next two names on the list were Oklahoma and USC, who fell apart this season. Oklahoma is not even in the top 25 and USC is still over rated at 18.

Oklahoma proved that they are simply a supporting cast to Sam Bradford, and without their star, they are just an average team. The pendulum simply caught up with USC. After so many years on top, they were bound to fall sooner or later. However, Las Vegas does love its usual front runners.

Next was Texas, and that was a safe pick from last year's season, but next came Ohio State, who, while still rated No. 8, is perhaps the most over rated team in the top 10 today.

The next was Florida State, and you have to wonder what they were thinking. Was Bobby Bowden really going to fix all the problems and put them back in the top 10? Apparently they thought so. However, they are not in the top 25 now.

Apparently Vegas came to their senses, too. Florida State started off at 18 to one odds on Mar. 6th, 2009, and by May 4th, 2009 they went to 30 to one.

Then comes Alabama. I bought a $20 ticket at 10 to one odds. I'm feeling better about that every week. Alabama started off at 20 to one and two months later dropped to 10-1.

Next was Va. Tech holding steady the whole time at 20 to one. They have been in and out of the top 10 all season and are presently 12th.

Miami was next as apparently the odds makers felt Randy Shannon would finally get everything put together. They had them at No. 9, but with 25 to one odds. Today they are rated 17.

The final Top 10 team was LSU, also at 25 to one odds. They are presently 13th.

So to recap the top 10 and where they are now:

Pos.  Team          Opening odds        Odds on 5-4-09       Today's BCS Ranking+

1.     Florida           2/1                          2/1                               1

2.     Oklahoma       6/1                          6/1                               N/A

3.     USC              6/1                          6/1                                18

4.     Texas            10/1                        6/1                                3

5.     Ohio State      12/1                        10/1                              8

6.     Florida St.       18/1                        30/1                              N/A

7.     Alabama          20/1                       10/1                               2

8.     Virginia Tech    20/1                       20/1                              12

9.     Miami             25/1                        25/1                              17

10.   LSU                25/1                        12/1                              13

Therefore you can see that they only correctly picked four of the top 10 teams if the season ended today. With bowl wins, Virgina Tech and LSU could sneak in. An Ohio State loss would put them out of the top 10.

So where were the teams that are in the top 10 at the beginning of the betting season?

Present BCS Ranking and team    Preseason Odds

4.  TCU                                     not listed—no odds given

5.  Cincinnati                             27th place 60/1

6.  Boise State                            39th place 80/1

7.  Oregon                                  14th place 45/1

9.  Iowa                                     24th place 60/1

10. Georgia Tech                          29th place 65/1

Overall you can see that Las Vegas is not a much better guesser that the rest of us. After all, who didn't see Florida being at the top after returning almost the whole national championship team?

The moral of this story is to not listen to Las Vegas. If you're so inclined, bet on the team you root, in a nice a legal place, and hope for the best. You know as much as they do.