Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Whose 2009 Power Regression Is for Real?

Last week we looked at players who saw a power surge in 2009 and tried to decide whose was for real and whose was an aberration (click here to read). Today, let’s take a look at who saw their HR/FB regress dramatically and decide if it is cause for concern or if a rebound should be in order:

1) Jack Cust: Oakland Athletics: -12.0%
It wasn’t that is power waned, as he hit 25 HR, it was that he saw an increase in the number of flyballs (he’s gone from 34.6% to 38.5% to 42.9%) he hit. Still, we’d have liked to see the home run numbers grow thanks to those extra flyballs. Could he have grown too fixated on the long ball? Quite possibly, which, when coupled with all the strikeouts, make it impossible for him to hit for a strong average. Unless he rebounds to 30+ HR, he’s unusable for fantasy owners (that is if he even has an everyday job in 2010).

2) Ty Wigginton: Baltimore Orioles: -10.6%
He was coming off a career best 18.5%, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he saw a regression, but to the second-worst mark of his career? That seems a little extreme.  Still, he’s unlikely to be given an everyday job in 2010, so despite a rebound being likely, he’s not a player that’s worth targeting.

3) David Wright: New York Mets: -9.8%
Was it the new stadium? The pressure of being the last man standing? Something entirely different? If it is one of those reasons or something entirely different, it is hard to imagine anything but a significant improvement in 2010.

4) Milton Bradley: Chicago Cubs: -9.0%
Like Wigginton, he was coming off a career best HR/FB rate in 2008 (21.2%), so the fact that he saw a decrease should not be very shocking news. We all know he can hit, however, despite being a malcontent and an injury risk. With so many rumors swirling about his potential future it is too early to make any certain conclusions, except maybe that he will miss time due to an injury at some point in 2010.

5) Rick Ankiel: St. Louis Cardinals: -8.8%
Injuries severely limited him in 2009, but after his brief appearance in 2007 and performance in 2008 there is little doubt that he can hit the long ball.  We’ll see where the free agent signs, but I’d look for him to have a strong bounce back campaign. If there is a team looking for a bit of a power boost on the cheap, he seems like the perfect candidate. Keep your eye on him in 2010.

6) Melvin Mora: Baltimore Orioles: -8.6%
He’ll be 38 years old come Opening Day and it is unlikely that he is an everyday player in 2010. He’s not worth even considering in any fantasy format.

7t) Adrian Beltre: Seattle Mariners: -8.2%
We all know that he is not the player who launched 48 home runs in 2004, but after hitting 76 HR from 2006-2008, we all know that he has much more upside then what he showed in 2009. He’s always posted double-digit HR/FB rates, so there is every reason to see him rebound from the 5.6% in 2009. He could be a bargain as a corner infielder for fantasy owners.

7t) Pat Burrell: Tampa Bay Rays: -8.2%
Was the dropoff due to leaving Citizen’s Bank Ballpark? Considering that he hit 21 of his 33 HR on the road in 2008, that wouldn’t be a fair assessment. He had posted a mark of at least 16% from 2004-2008, so you have to think that he will be better than he was in 2009. Still, with that comes the potential for a terrible average, likely in the .250 range or below, severely limiting his fantasy appeal.

9) Ryan Ludwick: St. Louis Cardinals: -8.1%
Clearly, he has power, and even last season he showed it by launching 22 HR in just 486 AB. One way or another he is going to be worth owning for his power potential.

10) Vernon Wells: Toronto Blue Jays: -8.0%
Over the past three years he has posted HR/FB rates of 7.3%, 14.4% and 6.4%. Which one appears to be the outlier? We all know his story and the longer this continues the more unlikely it is that he rediscovers the player he once was. At this point, I wouldn’t count on it, but as a low-end gamble, does it really hurt?

What are your thoughts on these hitters? Whose regression could be for real? Who do you expect to see a rebound from?

Previous Statistical Analysis:

• Ten Biggest Batters HR/FB Increases from 2008 to 2009
  
• Ten Worst Pitcher’s HR/FB in 2009

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