The Spread Offense: The Future of the NFL and Fantasy Football

Variations of the spread offense, such as the pass-happy version the Patriots run or the Wildcat in Miami, are taking over the NFL. In this article, I will explain how the transition of NFL offenses to the spread will affect the game, providing six fairly bold predictions and detailing how these changes will alter the landscape of fantasy football in the future.

1. Within ten years, all NFL teams will be running some form of the spread as their base offense.

We've already seen this prediction become a reality for teams such as the Patriots and Saints. It's no coincidence that these teams generally score the most points. Even teams that have traditionally been known as running teams, such as the Steelers and Ravens, have transitioned to a more spread-like attack in recent years.

A conversion to a spread offense, however, does not necessarily mean more passing. The Saints, surprisingly, have run the ball more effectively than anyone in 2009. A quick peak at college football can also yield great insight as to what the professional game will become in the near future. There are spread offenses that throw nearly every play (Texas Tech, Hawaii)as well as spread offenses that run the ball a ton (Florida).

But why would college football get it right before the NFL? First, there is no "right" offense to run. The NFL goes through cycles where offenses adapt and defenses counter, creating periods where sometimes big, strong players are in vogue and other times small, fast players are the norm.

Second, NFL coaches are on such a short leash that a complete shift in offensive philosophy would just take too much time to manifest itself in a winning team. A coach that leads a 5-11 team with a traditional offense is much more likely to stick around for another year than one who led the same team with an unconventional offense.

NFL owners, GMs, and fans just have not seen enough results from a spread attack to know it will work, and thus are hesitant to embrace change. Eventually, however, NFL offenses will slowly become more aggressive and spread offenses will become the norm.

Fantasy Impact: The consequences of this transition are already being seen in 2009— tons of offense being spread around to a variety of players. Gone are the days of stud running backs garnering 400 carries a season. Offenses contain so many different player personnel packages that no player is on the field all the time anymore.Nearly every team disperses the ball among a multitude of running backs and receivers, meaning most players are very specialized in what they do.

Fantasy football has adapted with reality, as many leagues have implemented more starters and flex positions to parallel what is happening in the league.

Ultimately, this transition will make the few workhorse running backs and highly-targeted receivers an even hotter commodity than they are now. This will make being at the top of drafts crucial, leading more and more leagues to adopt an auction style player selection process.

2. Much like the OLB/DE 3-4 hybrid position, NFL offenses will see more and more RB/WR hybrid players.

Running backs with great receiving skills have been around for awhile (Marshall Faulk comes to mind as the ultimate RB/WR), but the game is seeing a shift from running backs who can catch the ball to true hybrid players. Reggie Bush and Percy Harvin are two current players whose games are predictive of what we will see in the near future.

In college, stars such as Ole Miss's Dexter McCluster and Florida's Jeffrey Demps are blurring the line between running back and wide receiver more than ever before.

The nature of most spread offenses is the reason for these sorts of players. Ironically, the various personnel packages and subsequent specialization that the spread has created has led to the importance of these do-it-all-players. The reason a great pass-catching tight end is so valuable, for example, is because of his versatility.

Tight ends that can block make defenses stay in their base personnel grouping, meaning the pass-catching ability of these players will be on display with a slower linebacker in coverage. Should the defense bring in nickel personnel and put an extra cornerback in the game, the tight end's blocking ability becomes an extremely lucrative asset.

Much like the tight end position, these RB/WR hybrid players create matchup nightmares for defenses. A personnel package that contains a player or two whose running ability is as indefensible as his receiving ability gives the defense no hint as to a possible play call, thus creating the inability to make the proper personnel substitutions.

Fantasy Impact: The RB/WR hybrid position will actually create some real problems for fantasy football in the future. While Reggie Bush is mainly a running back (although that is debatable) and Percy Harvin is mainly a wide receiver, there will be a large group of players drafted in the next few years that truly are not more of one position than the they are the other.

Will these players be drafted as running backs of wide receivers? In which starting slot must they be placed? All fantasy leagues will have to alter their starting requirements to include at least one flex spot, and positional designations of these hybrid players will become an increasingly controversial issue in the future for fantasy owners.

3. The "Wildcat," as one version of the spread, will flourish with better passers taking the snap.

In some ways, the Wildcat offense was already around when Michael Vick was in Atlanta. In that version of the offense, however, the snap-taker could throw the ball incredibly well. Before Ronnie Brown went down for the Dolphins, they had been running the Wildcat very effectively with a running back with limited passing skills. Imagine the efficiency of that offense with a player who could throw the ball like Michael Vick.

The reason that the Wildcat can be so effective is because the offense can use an extra blocker with the snap-taker running the football. No quarterback is needed to hand the ball off.

Offenses can also stay in base personnel if their regular passer is versatile enough to run. This will keep defenses off balance in both their personnel groupings and their play-calling. It is much less risky to blitz both cornerbacks with Ronnie Brown at "quarterback" that it would be to bring pressure with Vick taking the snap.

Pat White was the first player truly drafted to be a Wildcat "QB," and there are more of them coming. Of course, Tim Tebow is the ultimate spread offense, Wildcat-type college quarterback, and, consequently, the ultimate question mark for NFL general managers. The range of opinions regarding Tebow's skills varies greatly, with some scouts believing he deserves a high first-round grade and others giving him a fifth-round grade.

Only time will tell if these running quarterbacks and the Wildcat offense are just fads, but I believe that once the NFL embraces all variations of the spread, both will have their place in the league.

Fantasy Impact: Just as the RB/WR hybrid spot will create problems for fantasy leagues, so too will a QB/RB position, albeit not as soon. If a team like the Dolphins, who could potentially run Wildcat as their base offense, utilize a player like Michael Vick, the line between running back and quarterback could become hazy.

Even more hazardous to fantasy football's future is the possibility of certain QB/RB hybrid players being such a focal point of offenses that they tilt the balance of relatively equal statistics. College football fantasy owners know this phenomenon well, as running quarterbacks like Tim Tebow and Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour have an opportunity at scoring fantasy points on virtually every play.

Fantasy leagues will have to cross this bridge when they come to it, but the dispersing of stats that many spread offenses have created could be limited to receivers and running backs, with the future QB/RB hybrid spot becoming fantasy gold.

4. In much the same way that teams have utilized two or three running backs, the majority of NFL teams will regularly use two quarterbacks.

There is no doubt that one of the main reasons against using a running quarterback in the NFL is economical. The majority of signal-callers get paid so much money that franchises are just too invested in one player to let him get injured.

To overcome this conundrum, NFL teams will begin to use two quarterbacks. One may be more of a passer than a runner, and the other vice versa, but both will be versatile enough at both skills so that the defense cannot predict the play call simply from the personnel.

By having two, or even three, viable running quarterbacks, teams can make any playcall without hesitation, knowing that an injury to one of them would not set the team back incredibly far economically or from a personnel standpoint. Traditionally, an injured quarterback basically means the end of all Super Bowl hopes for a team, but with the implementation of a two-quarterback system that the spread will invoke, this is not the case.

Furthermore, we will see teams use both quarterbacks on the field at the same time. This will allow teams to become more aggressive in their play calling, using more throwbacks, reverses, and so on where these hybrid players can throw down field.

Imagine the Dolphins Wildcat system, for example, with Tim Tebow taking the snap (instead of Ronnie Brown) and Michael Vick running across on the read (instead of Ricky Williams). There is no doubt that Brown and Williams are incredibly talented runners, but neither holds the passing ability to truly keep defenses honest.

With two QB/RB players running that scheme, the options for an offense become seemingly endless just from one play. Tebow could keep it and run, keep it and pass, give it and have Vick run, give it and have Vick pass, give it and have Vick throwback, and so on.

Fantasy Impact: The initial prosperity that fantasy owners will see from the QB/RB hybrid position will begin to fade with the utilization of two-quarterback systems. Fantasy football will undoubtedly adapt to this system, probably in much the same way it has evolved to embrace two-running back offenses.

Again, more and more leagues will convert to an auction style draft, as holding a top pick will become increasingly valuable in the future. Eventually, however, the value of these hybrid players will decrease and, like all NFL trends, the cycle will repeat itself.

5. The pure pass-catching tight end will die out and be replaced by a more versatile hybrid player.

As I explained before, tight ends are so valuable to an offense because of their versatility. Defenses must stay in base personnel to account for the tight end's ability to block, creating mismatches on the tight end when he goes out in a route.

More and more, however, NFL teams are drafting tight ends who simply cannot block well. This allows defenses to substitute nickel personnel when the tight end is in the game, knowing that he will not be able to block well enough for his offense to sustain a viable rushing attack.

The extra cornerback who is in the game can usually match up well with the tight end, who, although he has good receiving skills, is not as quick or talented as a pure wide receiver. Thus, the entire reason for using a tight end—to create a mismatch—is ruined.

Fantasy Impact: Eventually, fantasy leagues may not require a starting tight end at all, as most of the high-scoring tight ends figure to be replaced by the hybrid players I spoke about earlier.

The versatility that a true tight end brings will allow those players (Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Heath Miller) to flourish, but the pure pass-catching tight end will become a thing of the past, meaning there may not be enough tight ends left to justify requiring a starter on each team. Instead, yet another flex position will take its place.

6. True man coverage will all but disappear.

The reason for the disappearance is two-fold. First, the NFL's illegal contact rule has made man-to-man coverage nearly impossible. Even when teams appear to be in man coverage, the cornerback generally has safety help over the top.

Second, with the offenses transitioning to running quarterbacks, the risk of playing man coverage, or even 2-man under (man coverage underneath with two safeties deep), is just too great. With defenders back's turned to the quarterback, it will just become too easy for the quarterback to scramble. This man-coverage-less defensive scheme was seen when Michael Vick was quarterbacking Atlanta.

This will lead team's to use a zone blitz for the majority of their pressures. More and more teams will convert to a 3-4 to allow more athleticism on the field for these zone schemes to work.

Having a 350-pound defensive tackle drop into zone coverage may work once or twice a game because it can confuse a quarterback, but with the majority of blitzes becoming of the zone variety, defenses will need smaller, quicker players to combat how offenses will attack.

Fantasy Impact: There will be fewer and fewer opportunities for receivers to beat a corner deep, as a safety will just be there waiting for them, even in most blitzing situations. Thus, the speed of the X and Z receivers will decrease, with bigger, stronger receivers flourishing outside. Small, quick hybrid players will dominate the slot, as their speed can still be utilized against linebackers and in underneath zones.

We have already seen this begin to take place in the NFL, and the rushing ability of future NFL quarterbacks will alter defensive schemes, which will ultimately allow for the success of big, tall pass-catchers.

These predictions are certainly not immune to criticism. Feel free to leave feedback regarding anything with which you may agree, and anywhere you think I may have gone wrong.