SEC Championship Game Preview: Alabama vs Florida, Strength vs. Strength

This is not one of those games that has two teams facing off pitting one's strengths against another team's weakness. These two teams are too much alike. These are two gladiators that will swap punches for four quarters, mano a mano.

There will be no quarter given and no excuses offered. That is the way it should be in a championship game. Many sports fans feel this game is really for the national title though I'm sure a lot of Texans may disagree.

On both paper and reality this game matches up as a battle royal. The nation's top two defenses line up against solid but less spectacular offenses. These are two teams that usually win by finally exerting their will, conditioning and depth onto a weaker opponent.

There will not a knockout in this game, both teams will be standing at the end exhausted yet still willing to trade haymakers. It is and will be a game worthy of what a championship game is supposed to be about.

The few edges one team may have on another are all arguable but let's explore a few of them and attempt to sort out an outcome.

The following stats come from cfbstats.com and only reflect stats through 11-21-2009 as the last game's stats are not included.

Special Teams

In a tight race, I've heard many a good coach say it could come down to special teams and field position. Both teams are good in this area.

Kickoff return yards—about dead even.

Kickoff return yards allowed—five yard edge to Florida.

Punt return yards—16.5 yard advantage to Alabama.

Punting yardage—virtual tie.

Field goal percentage—Alabama wins 86 percent to 69 percent.

Special Teams Edge to Alabama

Offense

Scoring—Four point advantage to Florida, but in common opponents seven point advantage to Alabama.

Time of Possession—Virtual tie.

Total offense—Advantage Florida by 27 yards a game, but against common opponents, the reverse is true.

Third Down Conversion rate—Advantage Florida, 38 percent to 47.5 percent.

Rushing—Virtual tie.

Fumbles lost—Alabama 6, Florida 9. Advantage Alabama.

Passing—Virtual tie.

Interceptions—Tie.

Offense—Slight edge to Florida due to Mr. Third Down, Tim Tebow

Defense

Scoring allowed_Virtual tie, but in common opponents seven point lead for Alabama.

Total yardage allowed—Virtual tie.

Third down conversion rate allowed—Slight advantage Alabama by 2 percent.

Rushing Allowed—Advantage Alabama by about 200 yards over the season.

Passing Allowed—Advantage Florida by 200 yards over the season.

Turnovers created—Interceptions: Tie. Fumbles: Advantage Alabama by two.

Defense—Slight edge to Alabama due to statistics

Other factors that influence the outcome

As previously stated, common opponents mean a lot, especially when Florida has the reputation for running up the score and Alabama is content to just win. In those common opponent games, Alabama has fared better in almost every statistical category including most importantly, the score.

On offense and defense, Alabama rotates players in and out at a greater rate than Florida does. Alabama appears to be slightly deeper at key positions that Florida, and in a game when such heavyweight punches will be thrown, that can be a key issue.

The "TEBOW FACTOR" There's an old saying attributed to Coach Bryant that says, "I ain't nothin' but a winner." The Tim Tebow factor is just that. No player in recent years has been better in taking a team on his shoulders and simply exerting his own will to win better than Tim Tebow. He was the difference in the last game and could be this time too.

Play makers and the WOW factor. Each team has a couple of players that have that speed and those moves that leave others reaching for air. For Florida, Jeff Demps is just that kind of guy and for Alabama Javier Arenas is that guy who makes every coach hold his breath when they punt. Yes there are others on each team, but they pretty well balance out. Demps will certainly get more touches however.

Team trends for this year - Both teams have had some great wins and ugly wins this season. But overall for the year, Florida is down from last year's stats in almost every major category, while Alabama's stats are better than last year's team. Given the fact that last year's game was so close, with Alabama leading going into the fourth quarter, that could be a big trend indeed to favor the Tide.

Final Scenario and Outcome 

Florida starts out fast and finishes slowly, Alabama starts out slowly and finishes strong. I can't help but think of the old tortoise and hare here.

I expect this to be a physical, bruising SEC type game that could turn on just one or two big plays.

It could come down to a field goal and Alabama would certainly have the advantage there with Lee Tiffin doing the kicking.

You could virtually flip a coin in this one and Las Vegas has yet to put out their pick. But given the special teams advantage, the fact that Alabama did better against common opponents and the overall trends of last season vs this season, Alabama would seem to have what it takes this year.