Why Euro 2008 Only Has Three Contenders

With the first game of the last round of the groups being played today, a number of countries have already secured their passage to the next round.

Portugal were the first team to secure their place, when they beat fellow "opening day winners" Czech Republic convincingly 3-1.

Croatia were the next team to make it through and secure top spot in their group, when they overwhelmingly over-came Germany 2-1.

Holland sent a clear message through Europe when they beat 1998 world cup winners, Euro 2000 winners and 2006 world cup finalists, France 4-1.

Last night it was Spain's turn to book their place in the last eight. They beat Sweden 2-1, with a last minute winner from the tournament's top scorer so far, David Villa.

With the top spot in every group now determined, a lot of teams will fight it out to secure second spot.

If everything goes accordingly, the countries competing in the last eight will look like this:

Portugal, Turkey, Croatia, Germany, Holland, France, Spain and Sweden.

Now out these eight teams, only three, in my view, can win the tournament.

Germany: They look very secure at the back and very convincing going forward. All they need to do is to drop Gomez because he looks embarrassingly out of depth. In Ballack, they have an experienced leader and a world class player. But above all, they have the wit and determination to deal with teams that come at them, teams that sit back or teams that get real physical. Germany are in my view, already overwhelming favourites to claim the trophy.

Portugal: Unlike Germany, they have actually justified all the hype that surrounds them. They have blown away they're first two opponents with relative ease. In Ronaldo they have arguably the best player in the tournament and he hasn't even hit top gear yet. All this is, amidst reports that their coach Scolari has signed for Chelsea and will be leaving after the Euros. Portugal have already given a huge hint as to where the trophy might be going.

Croatia: This team might not be everyone cup of tea and are probably not fancied by many. They came through the qualifying rounds beating England home and away. They struggled past co-hosts Austria and then blew away Germany in the second game. They're play is compact and free-flowing at the same time. In Modric they have a possible future world star. He is accompanied by Niko Kranjcar and Nike Kovac who are very capable players.

You might be wondering why big teams like Holland, France, Italy and Spain don't make the cut. The reasons are simple.

Holland have a history of choking when it matters. They can score as many goals as they want in the groups and play whatever fancy football they like. In the end, they will come across a gritty, determined team and Holland will bottle it, like they always do.

France are surprisingly playing below par. You can point to many things as to the reason why but one thing they can't escape is the age factor. A lot of France's stars are coming to the end of their careers.

Players such as Makelele, Thuram, Thierry Henry, Sagnol, Coupet and Gallas are all 30 years old or above. They have no urgency about their play and pass off a certain vibe of carelessness.

Italy are simply not as good as people think. In my view, they boast a lot of grossly over-rated players and have no chance of winning Euro 2008. How they managed to the world cup in 2006, is quite frankly beyond me. Players such as Materazzi, Cassano, Ambrosini, Camoranesi (who is decent but overrated) and Toni are not as good as the hype suggests.

How Toni managed to score 39 goals last season is unbelievable. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that he played in the Bundesliga and the UEFA Cup. They also have a lot of aging players, like France.

Spain are a lot like Holland. They choke when it really matters. They also have strong similarity with France in their way of playing. They tend to play 150 sideway passes and one forward pass and in the end they go nowhere. There is absolutely no urgency about them and it is quite frustrating to watch.

So there we have it. The three contenders for the top prize, in my view, are Croatia, Germany and Portugal. Please forward your comments and views whether you disagree or agree...