NFL Matchups Week 12

NFL Matchups Week 12

Steelers (6-4) at Ravens (5-5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
No line

Dave Meggett begat Tiki Barber, who begat Brian Westbrook, who begat Ray Rice, who has been getting most of the carries and receptions in Baltimore. Like Meggett and the others, Rice graduated from pint-size all-purpose back to pint-size featured back, proving that he’s durable enough to be more than a situational player. Rice looks as if he is standing in a drainage ditch when he’s next to Joe Flacco, but with 1,248 yards from scrimmage, Rice leads the Ravens by 576 yards.

As good as Rice is, he is not the Ravens’ last, best hope for a playoff run. That honor falls to kick returner Ladarius Webb. The Ravens face the Steelers twice in the final six weeks, and the Steelers’ kick-coverage units are so bad that they could cost the team a playoff spot. An early long return by Webb would force the Steelers to play from behind. The Chiefs and Bengals proved that the Steelers are a different team when trying to catch up.

Ben Roethlisberger appeared to be healthy enough to play at the start of the week, and while the league is trying to be more cautious about head injuries, Roethlisberger isn’t known for following neurological advice. The Steelers are eager to get back to mistake-free football against a team they beat three times last season. They can stay in the playoff picture, and knock a dangerous rival out, by containing Rice, protecting Roethlisberger and avoiding catastrophe on special teams. It’s a simple formula; the Steelers just have a hard time plugging in the variables.

Panthers (4-6) at Jets (4-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Jets by 3

The star Panthers receiver Steve Smith’s Maserati was sideswiped on the way to last Thursday’s game against the Dolphins. Smith was cruising, unwilling to test Joe Walsh’s theory about a Maserati’s maximum velocity, when he and another motorist confused a bike lane for a regular lane. “A guy comes over and decides to become one with me in the lane,” Smith said in an oddly conjugal description of the fender bender. “I feel bad for his insurance,” added Smith, who is fond of geckos.

Jake Delhomme decided to become one with Smith in 2003, and they are still cruising. He looked to his star receiver 15 times on Thursday night, hitting him seven times for 87 yards and a touchdown. Delhomme has closed his interception dispensary, throwing just one pick in the last four games. Unfortunately, the Panthers have other problems: their run defense has fallen apart, and their other receivers might as well have “Not Smith” stitched to their uniforms.

Mark Sanchez now has more interceptions (16) than Delhomme (14); they join Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford as quarterbacks on pace for 20-interception seasons. Rex Ryan hopes to turn Sanchez around by taking a more active role in the offense, a plan that never worked for Buddy Ryan. (Randall Cunningham still doesn’t know what a “progression of reads” is.) Ryan would have more success focusing on his secondary. The Jets can win easily if they keep knocking Smith out of his lane until he’s tired of paying the premium.

Colts (10-0) at Texans (5-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Colts by 3 1/2

The Colts are the first N.F.L. team ever to win four consecutive games by 10 points or fewer in one season, and they are 6-0 in close games this year. Players and coaches are saying the predictable things. The Colts are “finding a way to win” (as Jim Caldwell and Peyton Manning said), they are learning about their character, they are being tested for the playoffs, and so on.
“Winning like this shows what type of players you’ve got when you go out and everybody lays it on the line,” Joseph Addai said, quoting from Bartlett’s Guide to Familiar Post Hoc Sports Rhetoric.

The problem with close-game magic is that it disappears at the worst times, as the Bengals learned last weekend. The Colts can’t spend the next six weeks congratulating themselves for their moxie. If they don’t improve a defense ranked 15th in the league, find new ways to overcome multiple offensive injuries, and get more than a fair catch from their return game, they’ll fall to the Chargers, the Patriots or some upstart in the playoffs.

To their credit, Manning and Addai probably put little stock in the gut-check platitudes they offer the news media; football players believe they will turn into toads if they admit that luck often contributes to success. The Colts have enough character to know that character doesn’t really win close games. Their hard work and experience won’t lead to future close wins. It will lead to future blowouts.

Dolphins (5-5) at Bills (3-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 3

With Ricky Williams taking direct snaps, the Wildcat has become Fritz the Cat. The N.F.L.’s token vegan, Williams is more than just a meatless substitute for Ronnie Brown. Even though he took just three Wildcat snaps, he can run the system adequately, grind out yards from the I formation, and catch the ball.

The Dolphins beat Buffalo, 38-10, in their first meeting, but they suffered so many offensive line injuries on Nov. 19 that the third-string center Nate Garner played four positions, though not all at once. The status of center Jake Grove and guard Justin Smiley was unknown at midweek. The Bills also lost two offensive linemen for the season, leaving them with no backups in the second half last week. The over-under for Sunday is 40, an indication that handicappers expect the unprotected Chad Henne and Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw a few touchdown passes, probably to Jarius Byrd and Vontae Davis.

Chiefs (3-7) at Chargers (7-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 13 1/2

For San Diego, no accomplishment is too small to be celebrated with a Champagne shower. The police were investigating claims that Antonio Cromartie hit someone in the head with a bottle at a bar. What’s certain is that Cromartie and two teammates were toasting their ascendance into first place in the American Football Conference West with six games left to play. The great teams of yesteryear refused to acknowledge any prechampionship celebration. It sounds as if the Chargers store Moët in the water cooler.

The Chargers are no strangers to bacchanals gone wrong. In September, Shawne Merriman was accused of choking and restraining Tila Tequila, but there was insufficient evidence to charge him. San Diego’s victory over Kansas City will be celebrated by a ticker-tape parade, followed by a lengthy, sordid investigation.

Buccaneers (1-9) at Falcons (5-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Falcons by 12 1/2

With Michael Turner and so many other starters hurt, Atlanta’s few remaining stars are being asked to do too much. Jason Snelling isn’t worthy of a 25-carry workload, and Roddy White (four catches on 14 targets against the Giants) is a much better receiver when Turner is helping to set up the passing game. Safety Erik Coleman can’t protect two inexperienced cornerbacks at the same time, and John Abraham (three and a half sacks) can’t get to the quarterback when he’s continually double-teamed.

The Falcons will have little trouble with Tampa Bay, but the Eagles and the Saints will destroy their crumbling secondary and knock them out of the playoff chase. The difference between perennial contenders and one-year upstarts is often depth. The best N.F.L. franchises can compensate for multiple injuries. The Falcons are still a year or two from building the bench they need to compete year after year.

Redskins (3-7) at Eagles (6-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Eagles by 9

The radio station in Jim Zorn’s headset switched to all Christmas carols three weeks ago, but the other National Football Conference East teams can’t afford to go into a yuletide trance. The Eagles are battling through a crippling spate of injuries to stay in a division race that historically stays hot through the holidays. Cornerbacks Sheldon Brown and Asante Samuel have minor injuries; with their backups hurt or suspended and Troy Vincent unavailable to join Jeremiah Trotter on a reunion tour, both will play on Sunday. Donovan McNabb will break Ron Jaworski’s record for games played at quarterback for the Eagles on Sunday. Thanks to a combined 283 weeks in purgatory, they each get to go through the express lane at the pearly gates.

Seahawks (3-7) at Rams (1-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Seahawks by 3

Marc Bulger has a broken leg, not to mention hamstring and head injuries. He contended it was “only a flesh wound,” but he’s out for a month. Matt Hasselbeck was knocked out of Sunday’s loss to the Vikings, but he expects to play this weekend, robbing America of the Kyle Boller-Seneca Wallace grudge match we’re longing for. It’s easy to scoff at this game’s entertainment value, but last week’s 39-37 Lions-Browns game proved that even bad teams can put on a show, provided their incompetence is carefully matched.

Jaguars (6-4) at 49ers (4-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 3

Jacksonville has little business being 6-4. Opponents have outscored the Jaguars, 199-235. They have recorded only 10 sacks. With Rashean Mathis out, the rookie Derek Cox joins the journeyman Tyron Brackenridge at cornerback, which is one reason Jacksonville’s opponents have thrown for 2,400 yards and 17 touchdowns. The Jaguars’ résumé is dotted with close victories against awful teams: 23-20 over the Rams, 24-21 over the Chiefs, 18-15 over the Bills. A triumph over the deteriorating 49ers will make the Jaguars a real threat to take a wild-card berth from a better team like the Steelers or the Broncos. If that happens, the team should erect a Maurice Jones-Drew statue in front of the main entrance to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, where no one will ever see it.

Bears (4-6) at Vikings (9-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Vikings by 10 1/2

Jay Cutler’s passes sail high over all our heads, like weather balloons, differential calculus or “Remembrance of Things Past.” It takes amazing arm strength and a shocking lack of impulse control to overthrow Devin Hester, but Cutler finds a way. Some cosmic force turns Pro Bowl quarterbacks into Mike Phipps impersonators once they reach Chicago. Maybe it’s the weather (which hasn’t been a factor this year) or Ron Turner’s offense, or maybe the team needs to stop cobbling its receiving corps from undrafted speedsters and converted return men. The Vikings can officially knock the Bears out of the division race with a victory, but the Bears have been unofficially knocked out.

Cardinals (7-3) at Titans (4-6)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Titans by 3

Early adopters, take note: the counter option is the new Wildcat. In the Titans’ counter option, Vince Young fakes a handoff to the fullback while the offensive line blocks to the left; Young then turns and runs right, with Chris Johnson flanking him and waiting for the pitch. Young and Johnson gouged the Texans with the counter option on Sunday night, and they have plenty of variations on the play, including traditional Johnson handoffs, rollout passes and a fake reverse. When Johnson is on the field, Student Body Left looks like a dangerous innovation, but Johnson-Young option plays are just one reason that film from the Titans’ 0-6 start is as outdated as a“Maude” rerun.

Browns (1-9) at Bengals (7-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bengals by 14

After starting the year with a series of last-second victories, the Bengals were due for Sunday’s last-second loss. Quarterback Carson Palmer didn’t want to dwell on the defeat. “The point is we lost,” Palmer said. “Anybody is capable of beating you on any day of the week.” (Although research shows that most teams are undefeated on Tuesday and Wednesday.) If Brady Quinn starts sparkling on the Ohio sun, it will confirm suspicions that he is one of those“New Moon” vampires: young, handsome, the object of many people’s obsessions, and largely ineffectual.

Patriots (7-3) at Saints (10-0)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Saints by 3

Calling this the greatest Saints team ever assembled isn’t high praise. There are few challengers for the title: the Dome Patrol team coached by Jim Mora the Elder in the early 1990s and the post-Katrina 2006 upstarts, who were like Australopithecus to this year’s more evolved Homo habilis. The 2009 Saints are two victories from the franchise record, and their first playoff win will be the third in team history.

The current Saints merit comparison to great non-Saints teams of recent history. Boston-area fans bristle at comparisons to the 2007 Patriots, but the Saints’ undefeated record, deep roster of offensive stars and ability to overwhelm opponents looks familiar.

Bill Belichick, who hopes to end all undefeated talk on Monday night, compared the Saints to another great offense. “They kind of look, in some ways, a little bit like the Rams did back in 2001,” he said. Always careful with his message (when he deigns to deliver one), Belichick didn’t chose the 1999 Rams championship team, but the 2001 team that lost the Super Bowl to his Patriots.

New Orleans has not been truly tested all season. Games that looked tough on the schedule (against the Eagles, the Giants, the Dolphins and the Falcons) were just pop quizzes against the N.F.L.’s petite bourgeoisie. The Patriots are among the league’s ruling class, so Monday’s game offers our best indication of what the Saints can do against the Vikings in the playoffs or against the A.F.C.’s standard-bearers in the Super Bowl.

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