Rivalry Weekend Is Playoff Elimination Weekend

If Texas, Florida, or Alabama lose this week, then they will most likely be thrown from the BCS title race. While some people stomp for a large, 16-team playoff; the truth is that under that format each of these teams might lose but would still ascend into such an expansive playoff, right...right?

Thanksgiving weekend is, for all intents and purposes, rivalry weekend. You have the Civil War, The Holy War, The Bedlam Series, the riveting Egg Bowl, and Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate.

The last thing these rivalry games need is one team resting their starters for the playoffs.

This year, the Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State would have tremendous playoff implications. The winner would gain a spot in essentially a play-in round, while the loser would have to settle for the Holiday Bowl, or worse.

Perhaps all games on rivalry weekend should be elimination games.

Imagine, if Florida loses to Florida State then the Gators would be eliminated. Sure, they may fall only to No. 6 in the BCS, but they would be ineligible for an at large spot in the playoff and would take the back-seat in the SEC tie-breaker to 'Bama because of their loss.

The Playoff

So what would the race to a 16-team playoff look like this weekend? We will assume that every team's final regular season game will be played this week and that next week Conference Championship Games will be replaced by the first round of the playoffs.

To replace the Conference Championship Games, four regional tournaments (West, South, East, and North) of four teams will be held on campuses the first two weeks of December; the winners of which will ascend into two of the five BCS Games on Jan. 1.

Eleven conference champions and five at large teams will go into the playoff. Rivalry Week losses will trump head-to-head in breaking conference ties and no team which loses on rivalry week will be eligible for an at large bid.

A maximum of three teams from each conference will be put in one of the regional tournaments so as not to monopolize the region. Here are the potential brackets:

(note: 30 teams are listed as hopeful; a full, extra playoff round with Georgia Tech already assured a playoff spot)

The West Regional Contenders

No. 3 Texas
The Longhorns have traversed their schedule unscathed and with the top seed in the West; but they face a tough rival in Texas A&M. A loss to the Aggies and an Oklahoma State victory over Oklahoma would force a tie for the Big 12 Championship, which the Longhorns would lose and be eliminated by virtue of their Rivalry Loss.

No. 6 Boise St
The Broncos have also gone undefeated through the season, except against an arguably weaker schedule and currently hold on to a first round home game. This week's elimination game against Nevada will decide which team will represent the WAC in the playoff.

No. 8 Oregon
The Ducks lead the Pac-10 but face elimination against Oregon State who can snatch the conference title away from them. If both Oregon and Boise State make the playoffs, the two teams would not be paired in the first round. If Boise State or Texas slip then the Ducks will find themselves with a first round home game.

No. 12 Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have a firm grip on an at large bid and can even grab the Big 12 title if they show up against rival Oklahoma and Texas slips against A&M. If both the Longhorns and Cowboys make the playoffs they will not be paired in the first round.

The West Regional Hopefuls

No. 16 Oregon State
The Beavers control their own destiny and can take Oregon's spot in the playoff with a victory over the Ducks this weekend in what amounts to a "Round of 32" game.

No. 20 USC
The Trojans need a lot of help to make the playoffs should they defeat rival UCLA this weekend. Four of the following Eight teams must lose: Florida, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma St, Virginia Tech, LSU, Clemson, and Miami

No. 22 California
The Bruins played their rivalry game a week early and are have one more game against Washington. If USC also losses then California would make the playoffs from the longest of odds.

(7-0 WAC) Nevada
The Wolfpack can jump into the playoffs with a victory over Boise State and the WAC crown. It will be a tough game and Nevada will most likely play at Texas in the first round.

C-USA / Sun Belt Champ

If the Big 12 does not send two teams to the playoff then expect the westernmost of the Conference USA Champion or Sun Belt Champion to join the Western Regional Playoffs.

The South Regional Contenders

No. 1 Florida
The Gators have built up an impressive resume this year but face almost sure elimination if they lose against rival Florida State. Only a simultaneous loss by Alabama will save the Gators.

No. 2 Alabama
The Crimson Tide have also gone undefeated but still must defeat rival Auburn this Friday to make the playoffs. Otherwise they will have secured a first round home game against Troy.

(7-0 Sun Belt) Troy
The Trojans have almost clinched the Sun Belt and can do so with a win against Louisiana Lafayette or with a Middle Tennessee loss. The Trojans are looking to play at cross-state powerhouse Alabama in the first round.

(6-1 C-USA) East Carolina
The Pirates are the only Conference USA team in control of their own destiny. A win against playoff hopeful Southern Miss will clinch the conference and a playoff spot for the Pirates.

The South Regional Hopefuls

No. 15 LSU
The Tigers are the highest ranked team not yet in playoff position and play the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Battle for the Golden Boot this weekend. The Tigers can take the place of Alabama or Florida if one of those teams loses or they may edge out the Westernmost C-USA or Sun Belt champion if Texas or Oklahoma State lose.

No. 23 Houston
The Cougars are a game behind the East Carolina Pirates and need a victory over rival Rice and an East Carolina loss to secure the Conference USA title.

(6-1 Sun Belt) Middle Tennessee State
The Blue Raiders play Louisiana Monroe this weekend but need not only a victory but also a Troy loss to find their way into the playoff

(5-2 C-USA) Southern Mississippi
The Golden Eagles can play their way to a tie in the conference against East Carolina but will lose the tie-breaker unless Houston loses as well.

The East Regional Contenders

No. 5 Cincinnati
The Bearcats are riding an undefeated season into their season finale against Pittsburgh. The Bearcats are holding on to a top seed and two home playoff games but will lose it all with a loss to Pittsburgh.

No. 7 Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets have already clinched the ACC, the ONLY team guaranteed a playoff spot with a game remaining, so theirs is the rare instance when the rivalry game against Georgia does not have overt playoff implications. Even a loss to the Bulldogs may not steal Georgia Tech's first round home game.

No. 15 Virginia Tech
The Hokies are holding on to the last at large spot. Their rivalry game against Virginia should pose little problem, so expect Virginia Tech to play at the Big East champion in the first round.

(7-0 MAC) Central Michigan / Temple
The Chippewas and Owls are both tied for the MAC lead without a head-to-head matchup to break the tie.

If one of the teams stumbles this weekend against Northern Illinois and Ohio respectively then the MAC representative will be obvious, but it may be the polls which ultimately determine which team will ascend to the playoffs and play at Georgia Tech in December.

The East Regional Hopefuls

No. 9 Pittsburgh
The Panthers control their own destiny with their season finale against Cincinnati and a home playoff game against the ACC runner-up. Expect in years future, without regular season games in December, that Pittsburgh will conclude its season in the Backyard Brawl against West Virginia.

No. 17 Miami
The Hurricanes can slip in if a second at large team, perhaps Virginia Tech, stumbles. Miami begins a six-year series against USF this weekend in what should shape up into a solid rivalry.

No. 18 Clemson
The Tigers may have something to say about Miami getting the last at-large spot and will showcase their ACC-Atlantic champion team against the rival South Carolina Gamecocks. Whichever team between the Hurricanes and Tigers is ranked higher may end up with the last at large bid. Clemson has already played and defeated Miami in October.

(6-1 MAC) Ohio
The Bobcats actually have a shot at the playoff as long as they defeat Temple this weekend and Central Michigan drops its regular season finale. By virtue of their Rivalry Week Victory, Ohio will ascend into the playoff at Georgia Tech the following week.

The North Regional Contenders

No. 4 TCU
The Horned Frogs are undefeated thus far but need a victory against lowly New Mexico to stay in the playoffs and keep their top spot and two home playoff games.

No. 10 Ohio State
The Buckeyes have completed their season a week early, secured the Big Ten title outright, and earned a home playoff game. Expect next year, as the Big Ten adds a bye week, that the Michigan game will be moved to rivalry weekend.

No. 11 Iowa
The Hawkeyes have also secured an at large spot in the Northern Region by concluding their season a week early and will likely play at the Mountain West Champion.

No. 13 Penn State
The Nittany Lions have secured their playoff spot and will likely be the team chosen from Iowa to play in a rematch (in Columbus) against Ohio State in the first round.

The North Regional Hopefuls

No. 19 BYU
The Cougars will find themselves in a Holy War for the MWC title and playoff spot if TCU loses this weekend. BYU's lone conference loss is to the Horned Frogs and the tie will be broken by TCU's Rivalry Week Loss.

No. 21 Utah
The Utes may squeeze their way into a second straight Mountain West title with a victory over BYU and a TCU loss, but the chips are stacked against them as this week's game is played in Provo.