Alabama Vs. Auburn: Iron Bowl Prediction Time

I have been nice and respectful to Alabama fans and kept my knowledge to myself until today. The Iron Bowl is to be played in Auburn Friday and it is time for those predictions and the reason for them.

1. Auburn will impede the Alabama run game drastically. Reason: While Dexter McCluster and similar running backs from other teams have gashed the Auburn defense, no power back has done so. Mississippi State and Tennessee have pretty good running backs and they had limited success as will Alabama.

2. Auburn will rush well against Alabama: Reason: Alabama has not played a speed rushing team this year. For some unknown reason Ole Miss decided to use Dexter McCluster as a receiver in that game. It is the one variable that would have given them a chance. Ontario McCalebb will lead all rushers in this Iron Bowl.

3. Auburn will successfully pass against Alabama: Reason: Auburn takes what the defense gives them. When Auburn passes the opportunity will be there or they will not pass. If Chris Todd has an accurate day this could shock the world.

4. Auburn will get pressure on Greg McElroy early and often without the Blitz: Auburn's defensive ends are by far the best Alabama has faced this year. They are absolutely quicker than Alabama's O-Line that is not at its best pass blocking.

5. Greg McElroy will decide this game: Mark Ingram will have a good day, but not good enough to win. Dexter McCluster had over 200 yards in their loss and he is plain faster than Ingram. Ingram will run 20 to 30 times for 130 or so yards. This will not win the game. Greg McElroy will have to perform under pressure without mistakes. There is some advantage in the secondary for Alabama if it can be exploited without error.

6. Alabama's lack of speed up front defensively will show: Alabama is a power football team, but not particularly fast up front. In Fact the Alabama D-Line and Linebackers will have some trouble in this game where they are facing a much faster opponent. Auburn will not try to over power Alabama in the beginning.

7. Alabama will not run away with this game: Alabama is a slow scoring team and has been all year. If something is not clicking just right Alabama could fall behind in this game quickly. I predict Alabama will try some trick plays to begin with to attempt to score early. If these fail it could mean a long road back. If they succeed it would put Auburn out of their game plan.

Alabama should win this game, they should have won big against Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU. The truth is they did not. They did not play well against their other long time rival. Alabama is not particularly strong on Offense. They have scored 22 against Ole Miss, 20 against South Carolina, 12 Against Tennessee, and 24 against LSU. Auburn will score more than this against Alabama on Friday. Alabama scored 35 against Arkansas and 31 against Mississippi State. If Alabama scores at least this much they will stand a good chance of winning. 

Auburn beat themselves against Arkansas, Kentucky and Georgia. While Auburn has yet to play a good game for even three quarters they have played good enough on at least three occasions to upset Alabama. Auburn has been quite effective in stopping the power running game with the return of Carter and Freeman. When Freeman got knocked out in the third against Georgia it was like turning on the faucet for Georgia's running game. With three healthy Line Backers and the strongest Defensive Ends Alabama has faced all year it will be a different looking game than most expect.

Auburn can beat themselves and have done so with penalties and missed assignments. Auburn can also score on Alabama in more ways than they have faced all year combined. Auburn has found a solution to the Kick and Punt return woes. Execution will be crisp and mistake free coming off a two week prep time. Auburn is the only team Alabama has faced that has a faster Receiving Corps than the Alabama Defensive Backfield. They are a lot faster, and this will keep them honest. While Auburn's Defensive Backfield is young they are faster than any of Alabama's Receiving Corps. This might or might not have an effect on the game, but it is something to watch. Auburn returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Georgia. While this is not a big deal, they did it on a well established and in positioned kick off coverage. This is another factor that might or might not play a part in this game. It is certainly going to be something to watch. Auburn has been much better than Alabama on kickoff returns all year and they have not even settled on a return man until last week. 

While we all know about Arenas Alabama only averages 14.94 yards per return this year. Auburn is 104 nationally and only 10 yards behind. Since Auburn has just in the last two games settled on a return man and Alabama is 86th nationally in net punting this is another area to watch that might or might not have an effect. 

Alabama can sustain two long drives per quarter with their slow, methodical game controlling offense. This is to their advantage most of the time and helps keep the opposition offense off the field. The problem is if every one of these drives is successful it will lead to 24 points if Alabama does not score touchdowns. While the red zone statistics have been close for both teams, Auburn has scored touchdowns at twice the rate of Alabama. This is another factor to watch that might or might not effect the game.

Alabama has only allowed 9 points average per game this year. The problem is Virginia Tech and Kentucky both scored twenty or more points and their offense is more similar to Auburn's with Auburn's being much more potent.

Alabama is an extremely aggressive defense. Auburn has had more success against West Virginia, Mississippi State, Ole Miss against extremely aggressive defenses than they have on coverage defenses like Arkansas, LSU, Georgia.

Auburn loves blitzing teams and has scored regularly on Line Backer and Safety Blitz. Most of Auburn's sacks have been coverage sacks from the opponents Defensive Line. This is another factor that might or might not effect the game.

I will not predict an outcome or score in this game. It is much closer than most thought and the dwindling line is a testament to that fact. I said all year that I think this will be Alabama's most dangerous opponent and I included Florida in that to begin with. I think the Florida vs. Alabama game will be some what close. I think Alabama can control the ball and win it handily with defense. Alabama will be in jeopardy of losing much more in Auburn this week than in Atlanta next week.