Important season looms for Niners, Nolan

Coach Mike Nolan would prefer to forget all about the 2007 season. A repeat in 2008 and San Francisco fans may just forget all about him. Not that he should take all the blame for a five-win season, but some believe that he only survived last season for two reasons, one being that his father once coached the team, and the other being that ownership doesn’t seem to care much about winning football games.

Last season was supposed to be the year that the 49ers took a big step forward by making the playoffs. Some even predicted a division championship. Thanks to injuries to their starting quarterback and starting running back, a promising 2-0 start turned into a disappointing 5-11 season.

Things aren’t all bad for the 49ers heading into 2008.

There’s already a star in the making on that side of the ball in Patrick Willis. As a rookie last year, Willis showed that he can be the face of not only the defense, but the 49ers team as well. The first round draft pick not only led the league in tackles, but became a Pro Bowl selection in his rookie season. The secondary, anchored by corner Nate Clements, is solid. The eight-year veteran has proven himself to be a shutdown corner capable of covering the best receivers in the NFL.

The weakness on this defense is on the line. Last year the Niners finished near the bottom of the NFC in run defense. However, the addition of DE Justin Smith may be just the thing the defense needs to turn the corner. There is some thought that his six year, $45 million deal was too steep for a defensive end, but he had a productive run in Cincinnati, with 43.5 sacks in seven seasons.

The fate of the offense, like most teams, depends on the durability and production of its starting quarterback. Alex Smith only played seven games last season due to an injured shoulder. However, even when healthy, Smith has yet to show coach’s or management that he was the right choice when the 49ers took him number one overall in the 2005 draft. Though he has proven to be a mobile quarterback, he has continually struggled with interceptions and has yet to throw more touchdowns than interceptions in a season. His progression is absolutely key to the team’s playoff hopes.

There are plenty of weapons at Smith’s disposal. Though they lack a big name at wide-out, Arnaz Battle has progressed into a tough competitor with the ability to come up big in the clutch. The former Notre Dame standout caught 50 passes in ‘07 while posting a team high 600 yards to go along with his career-high five touchdown receptions. TE Vernon Davis is expected to have a break out year in ‘08. His combination of speed and strength gives the offense a big play threat in the passing game. The only question mark on Davis is his health after missing two games in ‘07 with a knee injury and only playing in 10 games in ‘06 because of a cracked fibula.

San Francisco also picked up some help at receiver from a couple of NFC West rivals, as they signed former Rams star Isaac Bruce and picked up former Cardinals first-round pick Bryant Johnson. Both should provide quality depth at the position and give Smith even more options to throw to.

A healthy Frank Gore along with a solid offensive line should provide the offense with a potent rushing attack. Gore led the league in rushing two seasons ago, and despite a bad ankle and a broken hand suffered in training camp, he had a strong ‘07 campaign, finishing sixth in the NFL in combined yards (1,533).

With that talent in place, the 49ers can win some games, and it’s safe to say that they need to.

Despite the fact that Owner John York was recently quoted as saying that he completely believes in Nolan, and is looking forward to the team’s success under Nolan’s leadership going forward, there is already evidence that the coach is on the hot seat.

In the off-season, Nolan made a change at offensive coordinator, bringing in Mike Martz from the Detroit Lions. Just the kind of desperate, last-ditch move a coach makes to buy himself one more year. When you throw in a pending effort to persuade citizens in the Bay Area to vote for a new stadium, it becomes clear that the pressure is on Nolan to put a winning product on the field.

Even while playing in the NFL’s weakest division, winning won’t come easy. In the season’s third week, Martz will face his old team from Detroit. The following four weeks could make or break the season for the Niners. It’s a tough stretch in which they will face the Saints, Patriots, Eagles, and the Super Bowl champion Giants. In November, an old rivalry will be renewed in Dallas, when San Francisco faces Terrell Owens and the Cowboys.

The best case scenario may be that Smith finally lives up to his billing and the defense figures out how to stop somebody. If so, nine wins could be possible. The good thing is that nine wins may be enough to win the division.

The worst case scenario may be that the defense continues to give up huge point totals, Smith keeps throwing interceptions, and another five-win season causes the Niners to give up on both Smith and Nolan.

Most likely, they will go .500 and enough improvement will be made for Nolan to keep his job. But in order for the 49ers to become a regular playoff contender, a change at quarterback may be needed–but for Nolan’s sake, hopefully not at head coach.

It’s a make or break year for Nolan and the ‘Niners - be there in person to cheer or jeer them by getting 2008 San Francisco 49ers tickets at TicketCity or at StubHub! today!