NCAA Tournament 2022: B/R Expert Predictions for Men's Sweet 16
Only 11 games remain until the 2022 men's college basketball national champion is crowned in New Orleans, and we're back with another batch of predictions and gambling suggestions for the contests coming up on Friday after seeing two No. 1 seeds in Gonzaga and Arizona go home on Thursday.
We'll save you the trouble of tracking down our success rate in the tournament by simply noting that none of us had either Miami or Saint Peter's winning a game last week. However, if you bet on everything that I suggested in the first two rounds, allow me to raise a glass to our mutual winnings. It's not exactly Pappy Van Winkle in a diamond chalice, but any profit through 48 games of this wacky tournament deserves a toast.
For the four remaining Sweet 16 games, we'll sum up what it would take for each team to win before also offering a spot where you might consider placing a wager. And, for the record, I did bet on everything suggested. That doesn't mean the suggestions will actually turn a profit, but I do have quite a bit of skin in the game.
Spoiler Alert: I'm a big fan of the overs in this round.
No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's Peacocks
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Matchup: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS) Philadelphia
One-Sentence Synopsis: This New Jersey-based Cinderella will have the geographical advantage, but will that be enough for Saint Peter's to overcome Purdue's substantial size advantage?
Purdue Wins If: It lets the big man eat. Love Jaden Ivey. Love Trevion Williams. But I especially love Zach Edey in this matchup. Saint Peter's only has one player taller than 6'8" who has played at all this season, and that guy (Oumar Diahame) has played a total of nine minutes in its last five games. And if at any point Edey is on the floor and neither Diahame nor Clarence Rupert is out there, the big Boilermaker is going to have both a nine-inch height advantage and a nearly 100-pound weight advantage against the Peacocks' "center." If Purdue so chooses, Edey could score 40 points.
Saint Peter's Wins If: It shoots well and bugs the heck out of Purdue with its physicality. Both Kentucky and Murray State were undeniably better, more talented teams than the Peacocks, but the MAAC champions basically irritated those Bluegrass State schools into upsets. And if the Peacocks—who have the depth to play 10 guys, no problem—deal with their size disadvantage by simply fouling Edey and Williams a bunch, Purdue's big men do shoot a combined 62.8 percent from the charity stripe.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Over 135.5. Even with Murray State having a dreadful offensive performance and Saint Peter's shooting just 3-of-13 from three-point range, that game still got to 130. Against an even better Purdue offense, the only way this game fails to eclipse 135 is if Purdue wins by an 80-55 type of score. It probably won't come right down to the wire, but the Peacocks should be able to keep pace better than that.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Purdue
Kerry Miller: Purdue
Joel Reuter: Purdue
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 4 Providence Friars
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Matchup: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Providence (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:29 p.m. ET (TBS) Chicago
One-Sentence Synopsis: Big 12 regular-season champion takes on Big East regular-season champion for the right to face a double-digit seed in the Elite Eight.
Kansas Wins If: Normal, lethargic Providence shows up. The version of the Friars that seized an early 27-13 lead over Richmond was a rare sight. In each of its 10 games before that, Providence scored 17 points or fewer through the first 10 minutes of action and was typically nowhere close to 40 by halftime. Pull that stunt against Kansas—which has scored at least 19 points in the first 10 minutes of 10 of its last 11 games—and this could be one of those times when Providence quickly finds itself facing a near-insurmountable climb.
Providence Wins If: It dominates in the paint. It doesn't take threes to beat Kansas. In fact, in its six losses, Kansas' opponents shot a combined 24-of-100 from downtown. Rather, it was in the paint where the Jayhawks were crushed in those six games, allowing 56.3 percent on two-point attempts with a combined rebound margin of minus-43. That's not really Providence's game, but if Nate Watson and Ed Croswell shoulder the load down low, advantage Friars.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Providence moneyline (+260). I'm picking Kansas to win, but +260 is a little too nice to pass up. This should be a close game throughout, and heaven knows Providence has had a lot of success in close games this season. If you like Providence +7.5, you might as well just go for it here, since the Friars have won every nail-biter they have played against teams not named Villanova.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kansas
Kerry Miller: Kansas
Joel Reuter: Kansas
No. 4 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels
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Matchup: No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 8 North Carolina (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS) Philadelphia
One-Sentence Synopsis: North Carolina (20) and UCLA (19) have been to more Final Fours than any other program, but only one of these blue bloods will make it to the 2022 Elite Eight.
UCLA Wins If: Its mid-range shots are falling. In Saturday's win over Saint Mary's, UCLA shot 17-of-31 (54.8 percent) in the area between the three-point arc and the restricted arc, per ESPN. Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. basically live in what most offenses consider no man's land. And in games that both of those guys are making those buckets, UCLA is very tough to beat, in large part because the Bruins' last 12 opponents have averaged just 61.0 points.
North Carolina Wins If: Brady Manek stays hot. North Carolina has won nine consecutive games in which Manek scores at least 13 points and has a year-to-date record of 19-3 when he reaches that mark. And he's averaging 27.0 in the tournament—this despite missing about 35 percent of Saturday's game against Baylor after getting ejected for elbowing Jeremy Sochan. If he starts raining in threes (20 made in his last six games), it'll more than counterbalance UCLA's mid-range twos.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Over 141.5 and UNC moneyline (+295 parlay). This might be a terrible call, as I did just point out that UCLA's last 12 opponents averaged 61.0 points. But you know what? Baylor's defense was pretty darn good, too, until it ran into the red-hot Tar Heels. And with the exception of the 84-76 loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 championship, it's not like UCLA has been facing great offenses. UNC stays hot and wins a barnburner.
Predictions
David Kenyon: North Carolina
Kerry Miller: North Carolina
Joel Reuter: North Carolina
No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones
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Matchup: No. 10 Miami (FL) vs. No. 11 Iowa State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:59 p.m. ET (TBS) Chicago
One-Sentence Synopsis: Iowa State seeks to become the fourth No. 11 seed to crash the Elite Eight in the past five tournaments, while Miami is hoping to follow 2016 Syracuse's path of winning by two at Duke in January and somewhat controversially getting into the tournament as a No. 10 seed before reaching the Final Four.
Miami (FL) Wins If: Steals are the story. In terms of steal percentage on defense, these are the two best teams left in the tournament. But while Miami's backcourt does an excellent job of not committing turnovers, Iowa State coughs up the ball left and right. The Cyclones have yet to commit more than 12 live-ball turnovers in a game this season, but that could change against a Hurricanes defense that already has 22 steals in this dance.
Iowa State Wins If: Poor shooting trumps bad defense. Aside from forcing turnovers, Miami's defense is terrible. The Hurricanes rank 122nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is the worst of the remaining teams by far. And while Iowa State generally has not shot well this season, it did average 72.0 points in its 10 games played against teams outside the top 75 in AdjDE. The Cyclones average an assist on better than 60 percent of made buckets, so there should be a lot of good ball movement leading to open looks.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Over 133. I don't feel great about this one, given Iowa State's combination of great defense and oftentimes woeful offense. But I'm putting some faith in that 72.0 PPG average just mentioned, as Miami will get a lot of two-point buckets, and there's a real possibility of overtime to help get us to the goal here.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Miami
Kerry Miller: Miami
Joel Reuter: Iowa State
Advanced stats via KenPom.com unless otherwise noted.
Odds via DraftKings and accurate as of Friday night.
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