NCAA Men's Tournament 2022: Upset Meter for Every Game
This season's NCAA men's Sweet 16 is especially intriguing.
Along with a bona fide Cinderella in Saint Peter's, there are resurrected blue bloods in UNC and UCLA, defensive juggernauts in Texas Tech and Houston and offensive dynamos in Gonzaga and Purdue.
That makes this round a frothy mixture indeed.
So let's break out the old upset meter to find the greatest likelihood of a stunner. We ranked each of the eight Sweet 16 matchups by upset potential from least to most likely, presenting the cases for and against lower-seed triumphs alongside verdicts ranging from extremely unlikely to extremely likely.
All stats courtesy of Sports Reference and KenPom.com unless otherwise noted. Betting odds courtesy of DraftKings. All times listed are ET.
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No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Arkansas
1 of 8
7:09 p.m. Thursday
Moneyline: Gonzaga -475
The Case For
After Arkansas needed only to beat a No. 13 and a No. 12 seed to get here, it's tempting to think the Razorbacks will seize up at the mere sight of a single-digit seed. But they grabbed 12 wins over Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents during the season.
Arkansas is also coming off a 53-48 win over New Mexico State that reminded all observers it featured KenPom's 14th-ranked defense. The Razorbacks pressured and harassed the white-hot Teddy Allen into 12 points on 5-of-16 shooting. If you're an Arkansas fan, that's much better than the 37 he poured in against No. 5 Connecticut in the first round.
The Razorbacks also forced 19 turnovers and drew 15 fouls, capitalizing by making 22 of 25 free throws, including seven of eight in the final minute to salt the game away.
As great as Gonzaga is, both of its tourney wins have been nip and tuck. The Bulldogs escaped a shocker with an 82-78 win over No. 9 Memphis after being down 10 at the half, and while they pulled away for a 93-72 win over No. 16 Georgia State, they were down two with 13 minutes left in the game.
The Case Against
Well, if you're Gonzaga, you have Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren.
The skyscrapers of Spokane have netted a combined 85 points on 61.4 percent shooting (35-of-57) in the tournament. Timme is coming off one of the best performances of the opening weekend with 25 points on 10-of-16 shooting (21 of those points came in the second half) and 14 rebounds.
It also must be acknowledged that for all their defensive prowess, the Razorbacks managed only 53 points on 14-of-51 (27.5 percent) shooting from the floor against New Mexico State, including a putrid 3-of-16 (18.8 percent) from three. Arkansas is not a bad offensive team, but this was a bad offensive performance, and it came at a bad time. The Hogs weren't great in the first round, either, shooting 24-of-56 overall (42.9 percent) and 7-of-21 from three (33.3 percent).
Upset Meter: Extremely unlikely. Arkansas won't be able to keep up.
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 11 Michigan
2 of 8
7:29 p.m. Thursday
Moneyline: Villanova -210
The Case For
The low-seeded but red-hot Michigan Wolverines and dynamic big man Hunter Dickinson may be one of the more lovable teams in the tournament, but they made it in by the skin of their teeth after an up-and-down regular season.
Now they've got it working, with the 7'1" Dickinson carrying the load. He's averaged 24 points on a whopping 69.6 percent shooting in Michigan's two upsets, first against No. 6 Colorado State and then versus No. 3 Tennessee.
Neither team had an answer for him, and Villanova might not either. The Volunteers play a guard-heavy lineup; of six players who average 20 minutes per game, only John Fulkerson reaches 6'9". Of the six Wildcats who average 20 minutes per game, Eric Dixon is the tallest at 6'8".
The Case Against
There may not be a more complete team in this field than Villanova. In its 71-61 win over Ohio State in the round of 32, four Wildcats scored in double figures. Villanova always seemed to have one more stop, one more score in the tank as it fended off the Buckeyes.
A lot of those points came via Villanova's not-so-secret weapon: free-throw shooting. It's a pretty good skill set to have in the tournament, and no one does it better than the Wildcats, who shoot 82.6 percent from the stripe, which is tops in the nation and would set an all-time NCAA record. Against Ohio State, they drew 18 fouls and hit 17 of 20 free throws.
This team, well, plays as a team. Their intricate offensive sets, not the contributions of one or two elite players, make them dangerous. It's why the Wildcats rate as KenPom's No. 8 offensive team. Jay Wright and his staff consistently find a way to get it done on both ends, and it will be no different against the upstarts from Ann Arbor.
Upset Meter: Extremely unlikely. It's the end of the road for a spirited but overmatched team.
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's
3 of 8
7:09 p.m. Friday
Moneyline: Off the board
The Case For
How can you say no to the darlings of the tournament? The Peacocks of Saint Peter's are only the third No. 15 seed to reach the Sweet 16 since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
They're doing it with defense, and that's what you need to stop Purdue's ultra-potent offense. In the opening round, Kentucky guard TyTy Washington Jr. managed only five points on 2-of-10 shooting after averaging 12.8 points per contest. And that covered the margin of victory in the Peacocks' 85-79 overtime win.
While their strength of schedule was just 166th nationally, per KenPom, it's still notable that they rank sixth nationally, allowing just 38.4 percent shooting overall, and 16th with 29.4 percent three-point shooting allowed.
The Case Against
Purdue's record against Quadrant 1 opponents: 8-6.
Saint Peter's' record against Quadrant 1 opponents: 0-3.
Purdue is the better, bigger, more talented team. And it has shown it not only throughout the season but also in the tournament, at just the right time. Jaden Ivey is tied for seventh among active players in the tourney with 20 points per game. He put the team on his back down the stretch against No. 6 Texas, sealing the game with a three after not making a field goal in the first half (he finished with 18 points).
It was part of a workmanlike shooting night, as the Boilermakers were 21-of-43 (48.8 percent) from the field. It wasn't their most glamorous performance, but it got the job done. Perhaps even more encouraging to fans, Purdue's suspect defense filled the void, holding Texas to 39.7 percent shooting. It also out-rebounded the Longhorns 41-28.
Upset Meter: Extremely unlikely. Saint Peter's has punched above its weight, but Purdue is more balanced than ever and should deliver the knockout.
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No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Providence
4 of 8
7:29 p.m. Friday
Moneyline: Kansas -365
The Case For
The odds say this is a tough case to make. But it can be made: Providence is well-coached and knows how to win.
All the Friars' well-documented nail-biter victories—they famously lead the nation in KenPom's luck rating—prepared them for games like their 66-57 first-round win over upset-minded South Dakota State.
But it's not like every game Providence plays comes down to a buzzer-beater. In the round of 32, it put together a complete effort against No. 12 Richmond, displaying balance with five players scoring in double figures and a defense that held the Spiders to 1-of-22 shooting from beyond the arc.
If there's another mark in favor of an upset, it's that Big 12 Player of the Year and first-team All-American Ochai Agbaji has been relatively quiet, shooting 5-of-14 from the floor in each of his first two tournament contests.
The Case Against
Even if it's been beaten to a pulp, it must still be said that Providence is probably not as good as its record. When you go 11-2 in games decided by five points or fewer, those questions are unavoidable. Furthermore, the Friars faced a No. 13 and then a No. 12—not exactly the stiffest headwind.
If you're a Kansas fan, you have to think Agbaji is due for a huge game. He seemed to come alive in the second half against Creighton, going for 13 of his 15 points, including a game-sealing breakaway dunk.
Remy Martin has admirably carried the load, with 35 points on 13-of-22 shooting. And there's no reason to think that can't continue. He's been on a roll since the Big 12 tournament semifinals, averaging 14.3 points per game on a scorching 51.2 percent shooting in four games (his season averages had been 7.0 points and 44.3 percent shooting).
Defense hasn't been a calling card for Kansas, but it did finish 26th in the KenPom ratings. The Jayhawks came up big when they had to against the Bluejays, limiting them to just four field goals in the first 11 minutes of the second half.
Upset Meter: Unlikely. Kansas will cruise behind big games from Martin and Agbaji.
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
5 of 8
9:39 p.m. Thursday
Moneyline: Texas Tech -115
The Case For
The best defense in all the land comes swaggering in to San Francisco. The Texas Tech Red Raiders have held their two opponents to an average of 57.5 points. That's even better than their season average of 60.2 points allowed per game, which ranks seventh in the country.
They're no less swaggery now after drying up Notre Dame's shooting attack to win 59-53 and earn a berth in the Sweet 16. Kevin Obanor and Co. held the Irish to one field goal in the final five minutes and hit clutch free throws.
The Red Raiders are masters of reading screens and pick-and-pops, and they use their length to jump into passing lanes and keep the ball to the sides of the court. They force 16 turnovers per game and only allow opponents to convert 38.2 percent of their field goals (fourth in the nation).
The Case Against
Texas Tech continues to have poor offensive output. Making just 21 of 59 attempts, including four of 15 from three, as it did against Notre Dame, is not an enticing recipe.
The Red Raiders also haven't had to guard anyone like Paolo Banchero. You hear references to his pro-ready 6'10", 250-pound frame, but that glosses over his feel for the game. It glosses over plays such as the one he made Sunday in which Banchero drove to the basket, lost the handle, regained control and kissed the ball in off the glass for an and-1 as he careened out of bounds. The Blue Devils needed every bit of his 19 points, seven rebounds, four assists and one block to take down Michigan State.
Their glue guys are also, well, gluing. Big man Mark Williams chipped in 15 points, eight rebounds and a whopping five blocks against the Spartans. And if they counted basketball rebounds like they do hockey assists, he'd have a few more boards on his stat sheet for tipping balls to other players.
Upset Meter: Moderate. Great offense vs. great defense; it's a toss-up.
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 5 Houston
6 of 8
9:59 p.m. Thursday
Moneyline: Arizona -125
The Case For
This game will be a battle of tempos.
Arizona is fifth nationally in KenPom's ratings. Houston is 333rd. Force and object, here they come.
The Cougars have showed people why they deserved to be seeded higher than No. 5. They are for my money the best defensive team in the nation. They lead the country in field-goal percentage allowed at 37.5 percent, and they just held No. 4 Illinois to 53 points—22.1 below its average coming into the game.
They out-rebounded Kofi Cockburn and the larger Illini 39-33 and also nabbed eight steals, 17 turnovers and six blocks. They got it done with grit and by going after the rock. And that's what you want in a rock fight. That's why Houston may have the advantage in a contest of wills.
The Case Against
I wouldn't want Bennedict Mathurin standing across from me before the opening tip.
The Pac-12 Player of the Year is playing his best ball at the most important time. His 30 points against No. 9 TCU included a three-pointer to send the game to overtime and six points in the extra session to clinch it for the Cats.
That blistering tempo comes with a ton of athleticism, including the duo of the 6'11" Azuolas Tubelis and 7'1" Christian Koloko. Tubelis was quiet against TCU but is averaging 9.0 points per game on 53.3 percent shooting in the tourney. Koloko is taking everyone's name, averaging 22.5 points on a ridiculous 82.6 percent shooting. Against TCU, Koloko went for 28 and missed just one of his 13 attempts, chipping in 12 rebounds, including seven on the offensive end.
It's hard to deal with this kind of volume. Arizona is third nationally in points per game (84.6), first in assists per game (19.8), first in field goals (1099), third in field-goal percentage (49.6)...and the list goes on.
This game might come down to experience. Among the seven Arizona players who average 20 minutes per game, only one, Justin Kier, is a senior. On the Houston side, of the seven who meet that threshold, four are seniors, including team leader Kyler Edwards.
Upset Meter: Likely. The Cougars are a slow train coming.
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 11 Iowa State
7 of 8
9:59 p.m. Friday
Moneyline: Miami -140
The Case For
There are a lot of talented rock-fighting teams remaining in this tournament. Here are two prime examples.
Iowa State guard Tyrese Hunter is tied for the lead among tournament players with four steals per game. That's the Cyclones' game; the defense ranks 13th nationally with 16.7 turnovers per game.
ISU held LSU to 54 points and had 19 takeaways. Poor Wisconsin had 49 points with 17 giveaways.
Hunter and leading scorer Izaiah Brockington had subpar offensive efforts against Wisconsin, but Gabe Kalscheur recovered from a two-game slump to lead the Cyclones with 22 points on 10-of-19 shooting. He also was instrumental in stopping All-American Johnny Davis, who scored 17 points but needed 16 shots to get there.
Plenty of people turned on Iowa State when it lost three straight to begin the month. In one of those games, a March 2 home defeat to Oklahoma State, the Cyclones scored only 36 points. But now they have multiple players contributing on both ends of the court, and their defense is looking awfully stingy.
The Case Against
Miami is a better offensive team than it gets credit for. The Hurricanes rate No. 18, per KenPom. For comparison, Wisconsin sits at No. 62, and LSU sits at No. 92. So this will definitely be a step up for the Cyclones.
Kameron McGusty, Charlie Moore and Isaiah Wong are pulling their weight. Those three are averaging well into double figures in the tournament and combined for 56 points on 50 percent shooting against No. 2 Auburn. The Canes outscored the Tigers' powerful offense 13-3 in the game's final five minutes to win going away, 79-61.
Those are impressive numbers, but the Iowa State defense is next-level, right up there with Houston's and Texas Tech's, even if it doesn't get as many verbal bouquets lobbed in its direction.
Upset Meter: Likely. Pencil in the Cyclones for more havoc and the small upset.
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 8 North Carolina
8 of 8
9:39 p.m. Friday
Moneyline: UCLA -130
The Case For
Did you see the Baylor game?
After that controversial flagrant-2 sent the game's leading scorer, Brady Manek, to the showers, UNC disgorged a 25-point lead. But it righted the ship and hung on in overtime to take down the defending champion Bears. It was a gut-check for a team that had managed only a 3-8 record against Quadrant 1 teams.
In this game and in general, the Tar Heels have been invigorated by the presence of RJ Davis, who has slowly but surely become the Heels' primary ballhandler. He leads the team in assist percentage at 20.2 and trails only Manek and All-American Armando Bacot with 4.1 win shares.
Against Baylor, he consistently created for himself and others, scoring a career-high 30 points and handing out six assists to help overcome Manek's absence. If he can replicate that performance Friday, it will put all the more pressure on the UCLA defense.
Speaking of defense, North Carolina's has been far better in the tournament. During the regular season, it allowed opponents to shoot 43.6 percent. But in two tourney games, that figure is 35.1 percent.
On the other side, there's also the small matter of Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s ankle injury, which has the star Bruin in limbo.
The Case Against
Jaquez's injury is bad news for UCLA, but it's not the end of the world.
In the team's 72-56 win over the defensively tough Saint Mary's, Johnny Juzang, who suffered an ankle injury of his own in late February, turned in arguably his best game since then with 14 points on 6-of-11 shooting and eight rebounds.
Tyger Campbell is an effective and efficient floor leader. He scored 16 points against the Gaels on 4-of-8 shooting. He also dished out four assists to just one turnover, which is thematically consistent with his 3.3 assist-to-turnover ratio, which ranks sixth in the country, per NCAA.com.
The problem with the Bruins offense in this game is that it relies on penetration and shots inside the arc, ranking 13th nationally with 42.0 attempts per game. (Its 19.3 three-point attempts stand 278th.) That's good until UCLA runs into a team with a solid interior defense.
Increasingly, UNC is just such a team, with Bacot, Manek and Co. holding Baylor and Marquette to a combined 43.0 percent shooting inside the arc—far stiffer than the 48.3 percent they had allowed.
Upset Meter: Extremely likely. Jaquez or not, UNC has the momentum.
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