NCAA Tournament 2022 Power Ranking the Sweet 16 Teams
After a jam-packed, upset-filled six days of action, the 2022 men's NCAA tournament's field of 68 has been whittled down to a Sweet 16.
At this point, seeding is pretty much irrelevant. Even No. 15 seed Saint Peter's now has the necessary confidence to perhaps pull off another stunner or two.
But how should the remaining 16 teams be ranked?
For the most part, these rankings are based on how well the teams played during the regular season. But teams aren't necessarily in the same order as they were in our pre-tournament power rankings, because a significant amount of consideration was given to how they looked in their first two NCAA tournament games.
Case in point: Houston has leapfrogged a bunch of teams for finally beating some quality opponents, while Arkansas has been leapfrogged by several teams.
Gonzaga is still No. 1, though. Don't you fret about that.
Unlike our title odds piece from earlier in the week, tournament draw holds no sway here. This is a straight-up ranking of the 16 remaining teams from worst to best.
16. Saint Peter's Peacocks
1 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 56
How They've Looked: Physical. There was no way the Peacocks were going to push Oscar Tshiebwe (30 points, 16 rebounds) around, but every other Wildcat looked bothered by this team's physicality. In the second round against Murray State, the Peacocks got the entire Racers frontcourt into early foul trouble and held a usually great offense to just 60 points.
Bread and Butter: Rhythm disruption. Saint Peter's doesn't shoot well from the free-throw line, but it loves taking up residence at the charity stripe on both ends of the floor. Between the shots they contest and the lack of any natural flow in their games, the Peacocks have one of the more efficient defenses left in this tournament.
Achilles' Heel: Offensive efficiency. Saint Peter's shoots 43.3 percent from the field and commits 13.8 turnovers per game. Neither of those numbers is great. The Peacocks had averaged just 65.0 points in their 12 games prior to upsetting Kentucky.
MVP: KC Ndefo. The world has fallen in love with Doug Edert's clutch baskets and his Drew Timme-ish mustache/hair combo, but Ndefo is the star here. He went for 17 points, 10 rebounds, six blocks and three assists in the second-round win over Murray State, which was nothing new. He has season highs (in separate games) of 22 points, 13 rebounds, 11 blocks and seven assists.
Championship Blueprint: Ride the lightning. Stylistically, Saint Peter's is somewhat of a bizarro 2018 Loyola-Chicago, but just like those Ramblers, these Peacocks are built to win 65-60 types of ball games. If they can keep making more talented opponents extremely uncomfortable, maybe they can turn this house money into something historic.
15. Miami Hurricanes
2 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 44
How They've Looked: Unflappable. Miami has committed only seven turnovers thus far in the tournament. Meanwhile, its defense has generated 22 steals and a total of 31 turnovers forced. Turnover margin is, of course, just one of many factors in a game, but it's a big one. It's also a key one for this Miami team, which memorably had 15 steals in a big road win over Duke back in January.
Bread and Butter: Turnover margin. Suffice it to say, dominating that category was not a new phenomenon for the 'Canes during the opening weekend of the dance. They have forced 162 more turnovers than they have committed this season. They were plus-12 with 15 steals in the win over Duke, and they were plus 10 in a subsequent win over North Carolina. When they do that, they'll at least have a pulse against any foe.
Achilles' Heel: Rebounds. It's a nearly equal-but-opposite situation for Miami on the glass, where it is minus-155 on the season. Moreover, despite all of the steals, this defense is pedestrian at best on possessions that don't result in takeaways. Miami's defensive effective field-goal percentage is 52.9. None of the other 15 teams has a mark above 50.
MVP: Charlie Moore. For all the Perry Ellis jokes we've made over the years, this sixth-year senior playing on his fourth D-I team is about as veteran as they come. Over his past 11 games, this old soul has racked up 70 assists and 23 steals against 24 turnovers. He's also Miami's second-most accurate three-point shooter at 37.7 percent.
Championship Blueprint: Mitigate the damage done from rebounds and steal a title. Miami's ability to create a major turnover advantage while shooting well on offense make it a constant threat to pull off upsets. Considering they beat the likes of North Carolina, USC and Auburn, there's no good reason to assume that lack of size is a fatal flaw here.
14. Iowa State Cyclones
3 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 34
How They've Looked: Stingy. It bears mentioning that both LSU (Tari Eason) and Wisconsin (Johnny Davis) were mediocre offenses that relied heavily on one star, but Iowa State held those teams to 54 and 49 points, respectively. In each game, Iowa State's opponent had at least two more turnovers than made field goals.
Bread and Butter: Perimeter defense. The Cyclones rank fourth in the nation in turnover percentage on defense, as well as ninth in three-point field-goal defense. Trying to accomplish anything against this defense can be a nightmare. Not only did it shut down LSU and Wisconsin this past week, but Iowa State also held Iowa to 53 points back in December and limited Kansas to 62 in Phog Allen in January.
Achilles' Heel: Scoring. Iowa State has been held below 60 points in four of its past five games. Even in the exception to that rule, they were down 29-4 after 12 minutes against Baylor before springing to life and finishing with 68. The Cyclones also bookended that one with a 41-point performance against Texas Tech and a 36-point disaster against Oklahoma State. Literally the only thing this offense does at a top-150 rate is generate assists. So, at least they pass it well before missing shots or committing turnovers?
MVP: Izaiah Brockington. Tyrese Hunter was the star of the opener with seven triples, and Gabe Kalscheur saved the day against Wisconsin by scoring 22 points. Usually, though, Brockington is the guy who carries an otherwise lackluster Cyclones offense. He's averaging 17.1 points per game.
Championship Blueprint: Clamp down on defense and hope for the best on offense. In spite of oftentimes horrendous shooting, Iowa State has won eight games against teams that earned a single-digit seed in the tournament and had several other close calls against pre-tournament title contenders. If at least two of Brockington, Hunter and Kalscheur show up on offense, this defense is good enough to beat anyone.
13. Arkansas Razorbacks
4 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 14
How They've Looked: Unimpressive. The Arkansas that we saw in the first weekend didn't much feel like the Arkansas that emerged as a trendy pick for a deep run late in the season. The turnover-forcing defense barely bothered Vermont, a great rebounding unit was just OK in two games against double-digit seeds and made field goals were tough to come by. It's a good thing the Hogs were at least plus-10 in made free throws in each nail-biter.
Bread and Butter: The little things. As we'll get to momentarily, there's a decent chance Arkansas will allow a higher field-goal percentage than it shoots. But the Razorbacks make up for it in a bunch of other areas, forcing 2.4 more turnovers than they commit, shooting 4.7 more free throws than they allow and winning the rebound battle more often than not. Throw in Jaylin Williams drawing charges, and they win a whole bunch of games.
Achilles' Heel: Shooting. At 37.5 percent, Stanley Umude is the only semi-reliable perimeter option. As a team, the Razorbacks have a 48.7 effective field-goal percentage, which leaves a lot to be desired. In the second round against New Mexico State, the Hogs shot 31.4 percent inside the arc and 18.8 percent beyond it. On the plus side, they did become the first team in at least a decade to win a tournament game while shooting worse than 29.9 percent from the field.
MVP: JD Notae. He's the biggest reason why Arkansas doesn't have great shooting percentages, sitting at 47.5 percent on twos and 30.2 percent on threes while leading the team in field-goal attempts by more than 200. He is just 10-of-34 thus far in the tournament. But this lead guard is so critical on both ends of the floor, as exhibited by his eight steals against New Mexico State. When he starts cooking, so does Arkansas.
Championship Blueprint: Get Notae going and don't get outworked. During its struggles back in the second month of the season, Arkansas was sloppy, lost the battle on the glass and didn't have anywhere near its usual edge in free throws. If the Razorbacks can keep that version of themselves from resurfacing and if Notae can score with some semblance of efficiency, anything's possible.
12. Michigan Wolverines
5 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 39
How They've Looked: Formidable. A lot of people did not think this Michigan team deserved to be in the NCAA tournament, and the No. 11 seed shows the selection committee wasn't totally sold on the Wolverines, either. But they didn't fluke their way into the Sweet 16. After a slow start against Colorado State, they were clearly the better team the rest of the way, and they were great over the final eight minutes of their second-round win over Tennessee.
Bread and Butter: Owning the paint. Michigan's two-point defense is nowhere near what it was last season, but between Hunter Dickinson, Moussa Diabate, Caleb Houstan and Brandon Johns, the Wolverines have so much height they almost always win the rebounding battle and typically fare better in the art of making buckets down low.
Achilles' Heel: Perimeter play. Michigan does a respectable job of limiting three-point buckets, but it forces turnovers at a very low rate and doesn't have much three-point shooting of its own. Both Houstan and Eli Brooks certainly can hit the deep ball, and even Dickinson hasn't been shy about stepping out there this year, but this is the worst three-point shooting Michigan team we have seen since 2010.
MVP: Hunter Dickinson. The 7'1" sophomore has been fantastic all season long, but everyone seemed to forget about him during Michigan's slow start. He already has 48 points, 17 rebounds, five blocks and five assists through the first two tournament games, including a trio of triples in Saturday's win over the Volunteers.
Championship Blueprint: Maintain that winning mentality for a change. Michigan had oscillated between wins and losses for more than a month heading into the tournament, seemingly incapable of delivering two quality performances in a row. Now that it has, maybe the seal has been broken and the Wolverines can put together what would be (at least from a seeding perspective) the most improbable championship run in NCAA tournament history.
11. Providence Friars
6 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 17
How They've Looked: Skilled. There has been a lot of "luck" talk surrounding Providence this season because of the consistency with which they've won close games. However, the only "luck" the Friars had in the opening weekend was the good fortune of two opponents shooting considerably below their season averages from three-point range. But that's usually true for about half of the teams who survive into the Sweet 16. Rather, Providence looked good in knocking out South Dakota State and demolishing Richmond.
Bread and Butter: Field-goal defense. The Friars rarely force turnovers, and they don't rank top-100 in defensive rebounds or blocks. But even before those first two games against South Dakota State and Richmond, they were one of the better teams in the country at simply making opponents work for every inch of space.
Achilles' Heel: Slow starts. Providence was immediately on fire against Richmond. For most of the season, however, this team has been like a diesel engine that sometimes doesn't warm up until after halftime. On several occasions, the Friars were already down by 10 or more before finally getting going. That's a fine formula for getting blasted out of the second weekend of the tournament.
MVP: Noah Horchler. He's a tertiary scoring option averaging just 9.9 points per game, but Horchler is a 41 percent three-point shooter and the Friars' leading rebounder by a country mile. He also leads the team in blocks and is one behind Jared Bynum for the team lead in steals.
Championship Blueprint: Start hot and stay lucky. If the Friars win the first 10 minutes, there's a good chance they'll win the last 30, too. And it never hurts to have a healthy dose of luck on your side.
10. North Carolina Tar Heels
7 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 22
How They've Looked: Sizzly. North Carolina got whatever it wanted on offense in the opener against Marquette, and it did the same for at least the first 29 minutes of its second-round win over Baylor. The Tar Heels scored 95 on the Golden Eagles and were on pace for 90-plus when Brady Manek got ejected against the Bears. Factor in the 94 they dropped on Duke in the regular-season finale, and this feels like the hottest offense in the country.
Bread and Butter: Crashing the glass. Armando Bacot gets the largest individual chunk of the Tar Heels' rebounds, but the whole team does an excellent job. They finished plus-15 against Marquette and plus-nine against Baylor, neither of which was out of the ordinary.
Achilles' Heel: Perimeter defense. North Carolina's opponent shot at least 38.5 percent from three-point range and made a minimum of eight triples in each of its eight losses. The Tar Heels were fortunate Adam Flagler and James Akinjo couldn't buy a wide-open three-pointer on Saturday, because there were plenty of opportunities for Baylor to take advantage of this poor perimeter D. Not only do the Heels struggle to defend the deep ball, but they also rarely force turnovers.
MVP: Armando Bacot. Manek's great play as of late (minus the elbow vs. Baylor) has been the biggest catalyst for North Carolina's recent success. But being able to pencil in Bacot for something in the vicinity of 16 points and 12 rebounds on a nightly basis is so pivotal to the Tar Heels' success. The big man has 27 double-doubles on the year and will also pitch in a few blocks from time to time.
Championship Blueprint: Stay hotter than the sun. It's only a matter of time before the perimeter defense becomes a problem. But if the Tar Heels keep scoring in the mid-90s, allowing 8-12 three-pointers isn't as big a deal. We always say that defense wins championships, but why couldn't a red-hot offense win four more games?
9. UCLA Bruins
8 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 13
How They've Looked: Defensive. It took more than two seasons for Mick Cronin to finally get the "defense optional" Steve Alford years out of UCLA's DNA, but this defense is finally performing up to the standards we grew to expect from Cronin's teams at Cincinnati. The Bruins couldn't buy a bucket for most of their opener against Akron, but they held the Zips to 53 points and managed to survive. Then they shut down a very good Saint Mary's team in a 72-56 second-round victory.
Bread and Butter: The J Squad. The trio of Jaime Jaquez Jr., Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard can score at will and from anywhere on the court. Bernard and Jaquez have each scored in double figures in eight straight games, averaging a combined 36.0 points during that time. And we all know what Juzang is capable of after watching him shine in this tournament one year ago.
Achilles' Heel: Inconsistent offense. For as great as this offense can be, it does go ice cold at times. UCLA shoots slightly below the national average from two-point range (49.5 percent) and doesn't much rely on the deep ball (31.5 percent of field-goal attempts), even though it does have four solid perimeter shooters. That 57-point showing against Akron was a bit extreme, but the Bruins have had their share of offensive duds this season.
MVP: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Juzang could reclaim this mantle before the Final Four, but Jaquez has been UCLA's star for the better part of a month. He had 15 points, nine rebounds and six assists against Akron and has now scored at least 15 points in eight consecutive games. Here's hoping that ankle injury he suffered late against Saint Mary's isn't too serious.
Championship Blueprint: Lean on the defense and the J Squad. If they keep holding teams below 60 points, the Bruins will win the national championship. But even on nights when shots are actually falling for the opposition, UCLA can still beat anyone if Jaquez, Juzang and Bernard get into a groove.
8. Purdue Boilermakers
9 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 11
How They've Looked: Free. As in free throws, of which Purdue shot 60-of-79 while opponents went 13-of-23. That is a preposterous differential, but the Boilermakers did enter the tournament averaging eight more free-throw attempts than they allowed. Such is life when you barely play any perimeter defense and when your opponents have the unenviable task of trying to stay in front of Jaden Ivey and trying to deal with Zach Edey's size or Trevion Williams' strength.
Bread and Butter: Scoring. Purdue staggered to the finish line, but it averaged 82.2 points through its first 28 games and is sitting at 79.5 thus far in the tournament—and that's with Sasha Stefanovic struggling to rediscover his three-point stroke (2-of-12). If he can get hot again, there's just no good way to slow down a team that always has a dominant center on the floor (Edey or Williams), has an excellent slasher/shooter (Ivey) and has those forces of nature surrounded by three-point weapons.
Achilles' Heel: Perimeter defense. Purdue had 10 steals and allowed only four three-pointers in the first round against Yale, but that was fool's gold. The three steals and 10 three-pointers made by a Texas team that usually doesn't shoot that well is much more in line with what we saw from the Boilermakers all season. They don't foul and they limit second chances, but it's not tough to get up a good shot against this defense.
MVP: Jaden Ivey. Both Williams and Edey have gone through stretches of dominance, but Ivey has been the dude for Purdue all season long. Even on a night that hadn't been going great, he stepped up and nailed two massive three-pointers late in the win over Texas. He has both highlight-reel athleticism and a flair for the dramatic.
Championship Blueprint: Light up the scoreboard. For all the talk of defensive issues, the Boilermakers were held below 70 points in each of their seven losses. If they just score like we all know they can, the sky's the limit.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders
10 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 9
How They've Looked: D-lightful. Texas Tech couldn't make much of anything in the second round against Notre Dame, finishing with just 59 points. But it was going to make darn sure that nothing came easily for the Fighting Irish, either. Notre Dame shot just 8-of-24 from inside the arc and did not score on three or more consecutive possessions at any point.
Bread and Butter: The best defense in the country. Every once in a while, some opponent will get to 70 against the Red Raiders. However, they have yet to allow more than 75 points in regulation. They are 24-3 when allowing 68 points or fewer. They are also 16-1 when amassing a combined total of at least 12 blocks and steals. Trying to score in the paint against this team should come with a health warning.
Achilles' Heel: Guard play on offense. In the three losses from that 24-3 note above, Texas Tech scored 47, 51 and 51 against Big 12 opponents who either earned a No. 11 seed (Iowa State) or didn't get into the dance (Kansas State and Oklahoma State). Those offensive woes almost derailed the Red Raiders against Notre Dame in what was their third game out of the past six scoring under 60 points.
MVP: Kevin Obanor. TTU's MVP has changed about a dozen times throughout the course of the season, and it may well change again on Thursday, but Obanor has been a big key lately. He had 10 points and 11 rebounds against Montana State, and then he saved the Red Raiders with 15 points and 15 rebounds (seven offensive) against Notre Dame. He has scored in double figures in each of his past six games after doing so just once in the previous eight.
Championship Blueprint: Pound the paint and crush the opposition. Three-point shooting, free-throw shooting and turnovers are all problems for this offense, but Texas Tech can score down low and it can get a lot of offensive rebounds. For as good as they are on defense, the Red Raiders don't need that many two-point buckets to get into the win column.
6. Villanova Wildcats
11 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 7
How They've Looked: Efficient. Villanova shot 13-of-28 from three-point range while averaging 1.31 points per possession in its first game against Delaware. The Wildcats weren't quite that efficient in the following round against Ohio State, but 1.20 points per possession is still going to do the trick more often than not. As has been the case all season long, Villanova was great from the charity stripe, shooting 28-of-32 (87.5 percent) through those first two games.
Bread and Butter: Late threes. As if it isn't painful enough when the Wildcats nail one of their many three-pointers, they often come late in the shot clock in demoralizing fashion. More than 46 percent of their field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc, and they make better than 36 percent of them. But this isn't new information. Jay Wright's guys have been living and dying by the three for the past nine years.
Achilles' Heel: Defending the interior. Eric Dixon has had a fine sophomore season, but he's neither Daniel Ochefu nor Omari Spellman. Their defense in the paint isn't bad, but it's average at best, and there are some seriously talented frontcourts standing in Villanova's path to the Final Four and beyond.
MVP: Collin Gillespie. The fifth-year senior guard has a lot of Jalen Brunson in him, able to hit threes at a 41 percent clip and also capable of running the offense from underneath the rim. You can just about take it to the bank that he's going to hit multiple threes, dole out multiple assists and make several savvy, veteran plays each game.
Championship Blueprint: Make it rain on one end and guard the perimeter on the other. When Villanova makes at least seven threes and its opponent shoots below 37.5 percent from downtown, the Wildcats are a perfect 19-0—and those aren't exactly outlandish numbers to ask for. They've done it twice already in this tournament, and there's no reason they couldn't do it four more times.
5. Duke Blue Devils
12 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 6
How They've Looked: Diversified. While most of the top teams had a clear star leading the way through the weekend, Duke had five players score between 10 and 19 points in each of its first two games. Paolo Banchero was the top scorer in both games, but Mark Williams, Jeremy Roach and Wendell Moore Jr. all made major impacts in each contest. When everyone shows up like that, the Blue Devils are extremely dangerous.
Bread and Butter: High-efficiency offense. What Duke lacks in a true point guard, it makes up for with an entire roster willing to make the extra pass. Even Williams had five dimes in the opener against Cal St. Fullerton. The Blue Devils get up great shots, don't commit many turnovers and both Williams and Theo John are a force on the offensive glass when shots don't go down.
Achilles' Heel: Perimeter defense. Michigan State shooting 11-of-22 from three-point range while committing just eight turnovers wasn't exactly an outlier for Duke's defense. In fact, the Blue Devils entered the dance on a four-game streak of opponents making at least two more triples than the number of turnovers they committed. The good news for their Sweet 16 game is Texas Tech does not shoot well from deep, so Duke might survive the Red Raiders. But teams like Gonzaga, Purdue and Arizona could really exploit this issue.
MVP: Paolo Banchero. We're more than willing to entertain arguments for Williams here, given the impact he makes on the defensive end. But Banchero is the star Duke turns to when it needs a bucket. He has only put up 25 points or more on one occasion this season, but he has scored 17-plus in seven of his past eight games. He can impact the game with more than just buckets, too, as shown when he went for 10 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and five steals in an ACC tournament win over Syracuse.
Championship Blueprint: Share the rock and guard the deep ball. I'm not sure what can be done to fix the latter at this point in the season, since it's not like switching to zone is going to help the three-point defense. However, Duke showed against Michigan State that it can overcome those issues along the defensive perimeter by essentially winning every other facet of the game. If they keep getting at least five of the six stars to score in double figures, the Blue Devils could win the title.
4. Kansas Jayhawks
13 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 3
How They've Looked: Acceptable. Kansas made quick work of No. 16 seed Texas Southern, as it should have. It also never trailed in the second half against No. 9 seed Creighton. But the Jayhawks sure got a battle from a Bluejays team that effectively only had six players available. All in all, an OK opening weekend from one of the top candidates to win it all. At least they're still standing.
Bread and Butter: Fluidity. Kansas is a jack-of-all-trades type of team that moves the ball well, gets up good shots and (for the most part) forces its competition to settle for lower-percentage looks. They always have four viable three-point threats on the floor, one of whom is so potent (Ochai Agbaji) that opposing defenses are forced to pay extra attention to him. The Jayhawks might not be the best team in the country, but they can beat you in so many ways.
Achilles' Heel: Frontcourt depth. It hasn't been a problem yet in the tournament yet, but if Kansas runs up against Arizona in the Final Four and/or Gonzaga in the national championship, things could get ugly in the paint whenever David McCormack is on the bench. McCormack rarely plays 30 minutes, so the Jayhawks might need to stretch the big man beyond his comfort zone.
MVP: Ochai Agbaji. He hasn't been anything special thus far in the tournament, but give it time. With both Keegan Murray and Oscar Tshiebwe out of the dance, Agbaji might be the best player left standing. He's a high-level scorer with a certain future in the NBA.
Championship Blueprint: Stay in front of drivers and ride the scoring wings. With Remy Martin looking like his old self, he, Agbaji and Christian Braun should be borderline unstoppable. That trio had a combined 48 points, 23 rebounds and 11 assists in the win over Creighton. If they continue to do that and find a way to limit penetration by opposing slashing guards, it's going to take something special to knock off the Jayhawks.
3. Houston Cougars
14 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 18
How They've Looked: Authoritative. Both in the first round against UAB and in the second round against Illinois, Houston was the aggressor from the outset. The Cougars jumped out to an early 29-13 lead over the Blazers and led the Illini by a dozen 15 minutes into the first half. In both cases, Houston's opponent did cut back into the lead, but they had to expend so much energy to do so that they had nothing left in the tank for the closing stretch.
Bread and Butter: Hustle plays. The Cougars are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and it sure felt like they had about 30 of them against Illinois. They also block a lot of shots, force a lot of turnovers and just generally seem to be the team that wants it more. While the same can be said of Saint Peter's, Houston is substantially better at making shots and avoiding both blocks and turnovers.
Achilles' Heel: Free throws. Houston only shoots 66.7 percent from the charity stripe, and because of its aggressive play on defense, it typically commits more fouls than it draws. That aggressive defense is also susceptible to an opposing offense that can swing the ball around, avoid turnovers and hit threes, i.e. Arizona, Villanova and Gonzaga.
MVP: Fabian White Jr. Everyone had to step up when Houston lost Marcus Sasser for the year, and it was White who became the do-everything star. He has had six 20-point performances since the beginning of February, while also leading the team in blocks and making a major impact with rebounds and steals.
Championship Blueprint: Keep giving 110 percent. UAB was a legitimate Sweet 16 candidate. Illinois was a fringe national championship candidate. They both looked helpless against the relentless Cougars. There were questions about whether Houston could actually beat a quality opponent or whether they were a paper tiger with impressive metrics built up against overmatched opponents. It's clear now that they can beat anyone.
2. Arizona Wildcats
15 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 2
How They've Looked: Beatable. TCU's offense was just plain not good for most of the season, but the Horned Frogs had three players score at least 20 points in taking Arizona to overtime on Sunday night. Ultimately, Bennedict Mathurin and Christian Koloko were able to carry the Wildcats across the finish line. However, that performance was less than inspiring.
Bread and Butter: Fast-paced offense. It wasn't quite fast enough to get off the game-winning shot at the end of regulation against TCU, but Arizona can score about as quickly as any team not named Gonzaga. The Wildcats are impressive in the paint on both ends of the floor (TCU's 20 offensive rebounds notwithstanding) and Mathurin might be the best pure scorer in the country.
Achilles' Heel: Turnover margin. In their haste, the Wildcats do sometimes get a little sloppy. In fact, they had a minus-13 turnover margin in the first round against Wright State, and that wasn't even their worst such performance of the year. They also had a minus-15 mess against Washington. They still convincingly won both of those games against overmatched foes, but let's just say it is a considerable concern with Houston on deck.
MVP: Benn Mathurin. After racking up 27 points and seven assists in the Pac-12 championship victory over UCLA, Mathurin was the savior against TCU with 30 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two steals. He has made multiple three-pointers in 13 of his past 14 games, including the game-tying rainmaker late in regulation on Sunday night.
Championship Blueprint: Run and gun and fun. When Kerr Kriisa is playing with swag, when Koloko is throwing down alley-oops or put-back dunks and when Mathurin is playing like a guy worthy of the top pick in the NBA draft, Arizona is the best team in the country. So if Kriisa's ankle heals up a bit and they're able to stay loose the rest of the way, the Wildcats can win it all.
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
16 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 1
How They've Looked: Inevitable. Both Georgia State and Memphis got out to great starts against Gonzaga. The former led 54-52 midway through the second half; the latter was up by 10 at halftime. But in both games, it was only a matter of time before this elite offense went on one of its patented runs. Once Drew Timme decides it's time to take a game over with spin moves and drop steps, things can snowball in a hurry.
Bread and Butter: Transition offense. No one scores faster than Gonzaga. The one thing this team doesn't do at a high level is force turnovers, but every time they gain possession—even after the opposing team scores a bucket—the Zags are looking to run the floor and get up a shot within five seconds, if not faster. That pace of play got Memphis' entire frontcourt both into foul trouble and into a state of exhaustion.
Achilles' Heel: Physical defense. Chet Holmgren is super talented, but he can be pushed around and get baited into foul trouble. Timme has also been frustrated on occasion by opponents who pack the paint with help defense. Gonzaga can absolutely still beat you with its perimeter shooters, but those shots are much less reliable than point-blank buckets from the big men.
MVP: Drew Timme. The mustachioed big man deferred to his 7'0" shot-blocking running mate quite a bit throughout the regular season, but the preseason National Player of the Year favorite has reentered hero mode when it matters most. Timme combined for 57 points, 27 rebounds and six assists in Gonzaga's first two games, and he was just about single-handedly responsible for the second-half comeback against Memphis.
Championship Blueprint: Don't change a thing. Gonzaga has been the best team in the country all season long, save for a brief stretch in early January when a healthy Baylor felt like the favorite to win it all. If the Zags can just keep doing what they've been doing for the past two seasons, they should win the title.
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