Projecting Who's Staying, Who's Leaving from Indiana After NCAA Tournament Loss

Indiana's first trip to the NCAA tournament since 2016 didn't last long.

The Hoosiers fell 82-53 in the opening round to Saint Mary's on Thursday. Considering they were a No. 12 seed and had to beat Wyoming in the First Four, the result wasn't unexpected.

Simply reaching the Big Dance qualified as a success in Mike Woodson's maiden voyage, especially with how some reacted to his hiring.

Barring an unexpected upheaval in the offseason, the table is set nicely for Woodson going into his second season.

Who's Staying?

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Who's coming back for Indiana? Well, potentially everybody. In eligibility, the roster includes eight freshmen, three sophomores and six juniors.

There aren't any Hoosiers players who are obvious locks for the NBA, either—we'll get to Trayce Jackson-Davis in a bit.

The limited impact Woodson's first recruiting class had is one mark against him, though that's often the case for a first-year head coach.

Tamar Bates and Logan Duncomb were both 4-star recruits and listed in the top 100 of 247Sports' composite rankings for 2021.

Bates averaged 3.8 points and 0.6 assists in 31 regular-season appearances. His best performance came in the 76-61 loss to Michigan State on Feb. 12, when he had 13 points in 28 minutes off the bench. Duncomb, meanwhile, logged just 17 total minutes.

For Indiana to get to the next level, it will need more from Bates especially.

The same can be said of Trey Galloway and Jordan Geronimo, who just concluded their second years with Indiana. Neither saw a big uptick in their numbers. Galloway missed a large chunk of the season to a fractured wrist and then a groin injury. 

Especially with how the roster is in a state of flux, how Woodson develops the quartet of Bates, Duncomb, Galloway and Geronimo will be critical.

Who's Leaving?

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This is where things get interesting.

While both are redshirt seniors, Race Thompson and Parker Stewart are considered redshirt juniors because of the additional year of eligibility afforded to athletes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Entering the tournament, Thompson and Stewart combined to account for 17.6 points and 9.7 rebounds per game. The former was the team's second-leading rebounder with 7.6 boards per game.

Along the same lines, Xavier Johnson, Miller Kopp and Michael Durr all transferred in this season and have one year of eligibility remaining.

Thompson acknowledged earlier this month a sixth collegiate season could be on the table.

"I haven't made any decision yet if I'm leaving or if I'm coming back," he said on March 8. "Either-or, it's up in the air."

Rob Phinisee is similarly on the fence after having declined to take part in Indiana's senior day.

Among the Hoosiers' underclassmen, Trayce Jackson-Davis is the biggest flight risk.

The 6'9" sophomore led the team in points (18.4), rebounds (8.2) and blocks (2.4). His departure would leave a massive void in the frontcourt if he moved on to the pros. 

Since he's coming off such a strong season, it's reasonable to expect Jackson-Davis to at least test the waters and gauge where his draft stock is. Whether he bolts Bloomington for good is another matter.

In his most recent two-round mock draft, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman had Jackson-Davis coming off the board to the Cleveland Cavaliers at No. 57 overall. With that in mind, staying at Indiana for one more season would make sense.

Who's Arriving?

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Indiana sits 16th in 247Sports' composite team rankings for the 2022 class.

Jalen Hood-Schifino is the headliner from the group. The 6'5" combo guard ranks 21st nationally, and 247Sports' Jerry Meyer wrote last October that he "can get to the rim and finish while also possessing the ability to find teammates with accurate passes while on the move."

Kaleb Banks, a 4-star power forward, and CJ Gunn, a 3-star shooting guard, have signed their letters of intent as well.

There's still time for Woodson to add to his 2022 class, but fans may not want to get their hopes up about any more major commitments. Per 247Sports, Indiana has 25 scholarship offers out there—including Hood-Schifino, Banks and Gunn—but nearly all of those targets have committed elsewhere.

Depending on how the offseason unfolds, the transfer portal will present Woodson with an avenue to make any necessary adjustments to his roster.