NCAA Tournament Bracket 2022: Predictions for Biggest Upsets of 1st Round

Since the NCAA men's basketball tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there's only been one time when a No. 16 seed upset a No. 1 seed. That came in the opening round of the 2018 tourney, when UMBC pulled off a shocking victory over Virginia, handily defeating the Cavaliers 74-54.

In 2022, could a No. 16 seed upset a No. 1 seed for only the second time? It's unlikely to happen, as Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor and Kansas are all strong teams that should avoid being knocked off when March Madness begins later this week.

However, there could be some big surprises in the first round, and it's quite possible that multiple double-digit seeds will score upset wins and move on to the second round.

The full bracket for this year's tournament can be found at NCAA.com. Here's a closer look at some first-round matchups that could result in upsets.

No. 11 Michigan over No. 6 Colorado State

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Michigan's 17-14 record this season can be deceiving when seeing it on the bracket. Sure, Colorado State may be 25-5, but the Rams didn't face a ton of tough competition in the Mountain West. Meanwhile, the Wolverines were continually being challenged by formidable Big Ten opponents.

So even though Colorado State was seeded quite better than Michigan, don't be surprised if the Wolverines win this first-round game, potentially with ease. Their past 10 games have all been against conference rivals that are also in the NCAA tournament, so it's been a while since Michigan hasn't played against a solid team.

Hunter Dickinson can be a tough player to stop, as Michigan's 7'1" sophomore center is averaging 18.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Colorado State may have no answer for him in the post, while the Wolverines also have solid guard play, fueled by seniors Eli Brooks (12.3 points per game) and DeVante' Jones (10.7).

Considering Michigan has wins over Iowa, Rutgers, Michigan State and Ohio State over the past month, it's more than capable of taking down Colorado State. Pick the Wolverines to at least take down the Rams, even if you're not confident in them to make a deep run through the bracket.

No. 11 Virginia Tech over No. 6 Texas

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Virginia Tech may have won its first ACC tournament championship in program history, but its strong showing wasn't enough for the selection committee to give the Hokies a high seeding. They won four games in four days at the conference tourney, taking down Duke in the title matchup. Yet they'll be a No. 11 seed for March Madness.

Even before the ACC tournament, Virginia Tech had been on a roll. It won nine of its final 11 regular-season games, carrying that momentum into the conference tourney. Now, the Hokies will take on No. 6 seed Texas, which has not been faring nearly as well as late.

The Longhorns lost four of their final seven regular-season games, then got defeated by TCU in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament. They'll need to try to get back on track in the NCAA tourney, but it won't be easy to do that, given their first-round matchup.

Both of these teams earned some quality wins throughout the season and are deserving of spots in March Madness. However, Virginia Tech is hot right now, and that's going to make a huge difference against a sliding Texas squad. The Hokies should win, and they could keep going beyond the second round.

No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Arkansas

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Michigan and Virginia Tech are No. 11 seeds, but neither would be a true Cinderella team as Power Five programs that have already beat strong teams. Vermont could fill the role of March Madness' Cinderella squad in 2022, though.

The Catamounts are in the NCAA tournament for the fifth time since 2010, but they have only one win at the event over that span—a First Four victory against Lamar to secure the No. 16 seed in 2012. So Vermont is a program hungry for March success under 11th-year head coach John Becker.

In the first round, the No. 13 seed Catamounts will face No. 4 seed Arkansas, which has dropped two of its past three games, including an upset loss to Texas A&M in the semifinals of the SEC tournament. Vermont may not have faced a ton of top-level competition, but it has won 22 of its last 23 contests, including the championship game of the America East tournament.

As a strong offensive team, the Catamounts may get past the Razorbacks if they're knocking down a bunch of shots, which they've been known to do this season. A No. 13 seed has won in the first round in each of the past three NCAA tournaments, and two did so in 2021 (Ohio and North Texas). This year, don't be surprised if Vermont keeps that streak alive with an opening-round upset.