Projecting Warriors' 2022 NBA Playoff Ceiling
One game.
That's all Draymond Green needed to see from himself to conclude that now that he is back on the floor, the Golden State Warriors are the NBA's team to beat again.
"Whether we're the No. 2 seed or No. 3 seed, we're going to win a championship," Green said on NBC Sports Bay Area.
Is Green right? Now that the Warriors have him, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson on the hardwood again, can this trio still win a title?
In a wordโabsolutely. For Golden State to realize that potential, though, the championship recipe must include the following three ingredients.
A Healthy Draymond Green
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This is pretty self-explanatory after the last two months, no?
When Green was out the past two-plus months with calf and back injuries, Golden State lost its backbone. And its heartbeat. And its general ability to play anything resembling championship-level basketball.
"The chessboard changes with Draymond out there with Steph. Everything looks and feels a little bit different, and it's tougher to navigate defensively for our opponent," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "And I haven't even mentioned his defense yet. Draymond changes everything for us."
The Warriors enter Wednesday with a 47-22 record. They're 29-6 when Green plays and just 18-16 when he doesn't. He does everything for their defense and greases the offense's gears as its primary conductor. A championship run can't happen without him.
Klay Thompson Shaking off the Rust
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By virtually every measure, Thompson's return from a two-year absence forced by tears of his ACL and Achilles has been a resounding success.
The problem is championship tests aren't graded on a curve. Once the postseason tips, Thompson's injury history only matters for helping media members create compelling content. But if there's a notable gap between his current form and his pre-injury production, it almost certainly dooms the Dubs.
Thompson is the player who can take them next levelโfrom championship contender to heavyweight favorite. But that's only possible if he is who he was before, a player with a surefire three-ball, ignitable offense and the defensive chops to handle the toughest backcourt assignment.
Thompson has rarely resembled that player this season. His 41.8 field-goal percentage and 37.1 three-point percentage are both the worst of his career. The Warriors' defense has actually fared 1.1 points better per 100 possessions without him, per NBA.com.
Again, given everything he has been through these past few years, it's remarkable he is even playing at this level. But that all goes out the window once the playoffs start.
Chef Curry Cooking Defenses
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There are two non-negotiables in Golden State's championship plan: Green getting the group humming at both ends and Curry putting on an offensive clinic.
Curry is still the key to everything. He bends defenses like no elite scorer ever has by demanding non-stop attention as soon as he crosses half-court, regardless of whether he is on or off the ball. He can drop 30 points on great defenses and 50-plus on anything less than razor-sharp ones.
The Warriors never go supernova until Curry does. They are a world-beating plus-10.9 points per 100 possessions when he plays. When he doesn't, they get outscored by 2.5 points per 100 possessions. That's essentially the difference between being the best team in basketball and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Golden State is 7-0 when Curry scores 40-plus points this season and 18-4 when he goes for at least 28. If he dominates, the Dubs usually follow suit.
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