NCAA Upset Predictions 2022: Cinderella Picks for March Madness Bracket

The usual spot to look at for upsets in the NCAA men's basketball tournament is the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups. 

The UAB Blazers have the look of the ideal No. 12 seed to pull off an upset in the first round. 

UAB has a mid-major star in Jordan Walker and is facing a Houston Cougars team that stumbled against some of the best teams on its schedule over the last two months. 

The next-best upset option comes one seed line down from the No. 12 seeds. The 13th-seeded South Dakota State Jackrabbits will be one of the most popular upset selections. 

South Dakota State possesses one of the best offenses in the country, and it could take advantage of the Providence Friars' inability to pull away in a good amount of games. 

NCAA Tournament Bracket

Cinderella Picks

No. 12 UAB over No. 5 Houston

LM Otero/Associated Press

The emergence of Jordan "Jelly" Walker was one of the top storylines from the mid-major conference tournaments. 

The UAB guard produced 40 points in a triple-overtime win over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in the Conference USA tournament semifinal. 

Walker followed that up with 27 points against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs on Saturday to help the Blazers clinch the Conference USA automatic bid. 

Walker has the potential to take over a game by himself and become a March Madness star. 

UAB ranks ninth in three-point offense on KenPom.com thanks to the output of Walker and others. The Blazers could remain close with the Cougars because of their free-throw shooting, or Houston's lack thereof. 

Houston ranks 322nd in free-throw shooting on KenPom. That is the fourth-worst total among NCAA tournament teams. 

The Cougars shot 70 percent or worse from the free-throw line in their three losses in AAC play against the SMU Mustangs and Memphis Tigers. 

If the misses continue at the line, Houston could struggle to put the game away and let UAB hit a few big shots in the final minutes. 

No. 13 South Dakota State over No. 4 Providence

Josh Jurgens/Associated Press

South Dakota State was circled as a potential upset pick once it locked in the Summit League's automatic bid. 

The Jackrabbits rank first in three-point offense and effective field-goal percentage on KenPom. 

South Dakota State has not lost a game since Dec. 15. It ran through the Summit League without a loss in 21 regular-season and tournament games. 

South Dakota State won seven of its last 10 games by double figures and it scored over 80 points in eight of those contests. 

A fast start from the Jackrabbits could hurt Providence, which has a penchant for coming back to win close games.

The Friars won three overtime games in February, and they won six games by four points or less dating back to Jan. 26. 

Providence was down during its Big East tournament quarterfinal against the Butler Bulldogs before winning by four points. The Friars got crushed in the semifinal by the Creighton Bluejays. 

The other factor going against PC is it's played two games since March 2. It had the final weekend of the regular season off. 

The lack of game time could hurt Providence's rhythm and it may force it into a slow start, which it can't afford against one of the best offenses in the country. 

As long as South Dakota State plays to its style, it should put a significant scare into Providence and it could come out on top.