NCAA Men's Tournament 2022: Buying or Selling for Top Contenders
Now that the 2022 NCAA men's tournament bracket is set, it's time to start digging into this year's top contenders for the national championship.
An underdog could always emerge from the field, and plenty of words will be dedicated to Cinderella picks and teams on upset alert in the days to come. But for now, we're focused on the 10 best teams in this year's tournament, based on the full 68-team seed list released by the selection committee following the bracket announcement.
Each team's strengths and weaknesses, current momentum based on recent performance and path through the bracket were taken into account before an ultimate determination of buy or sell was made on its chances of winning it all this year.
Let's dive right in.
Arizona Wildcats
1 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 2
The Arizona Wildcats roster is absolutely loaded.
Sophomore guard Bennedict Mathurin (17.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG) won Pac-12 Player of the Year. Junior center Christian Koloko (12.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.7 BPG) won Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. Sophomore forward Azuolas Tubelis (14.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) joined them on the All-Conference first team. Sophomore guard Dalen Terry and Koloko were both named to the All-Defensive team. And as if all of that weren't enough, sophomore guard Pelle Larsson (7.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG) won the conference's Sixth Man of the Year award.
That group led the team to a 31-3 record that included six Quad 1 wins, capped off by an 84-76 victory over UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament title game.
On the offensive end, they lead the nation in assists (19.9 APG) and rank third in field-goal percentage (49.6), and thanks in large part to Koloko on the inside, they are also one of the best shot-blocking and rebounding teams in the nation.
They may not have gotten the No. 1 overall spot in the seed rankings, but this looks like the most complete team in the tournament and a serious threat to cut down the nets when all is said and done.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Auburn Tigers
2 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 5
It's easy to get behind the dynamic duo of Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler.
Smith lived up to the hype as one of the most highly-touted freshmen in the nation, averaging 17.1 points and 7.0 rebounds while creating a matchup nightmare by shooting 42.8 percent from three-point range as a 6'10" forward.
Kessler, a transfer from North Carolina, completely transformed the Tigers on the defensive end. The 7'1" center is second in the nation with 144 blocks, and he's added 8.2 rebounds and 1.1 steals per contest as well while scoring 11.7 points per game.
That said, Auburn has not exactly dominated over the last month with a 5-4 record in its last nine games with a few scares against non-tournament teams during that stretch as well. That's why the Tigers find themselves on the No. 2 seed line after a three-week run at No. 1 in the AP poll in late January and early February.
The inefficiency of Wendell Green Jr. (11.1 FGA/G, 36.4 FG%) and K.D. Johnson (10.2 FGA/G, 38.5 FG%) could be their undoing if Smith and Kessler don't bring their A-game every time out.
Buy or Sell: Sell
Baylor Bears
3 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 4
Does Baylor have the horses to grind out the next few weeks?
"One considerable concern is depth, especially in the frontcourt. With Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua officially out and LJ Cryer perpetually questionable with a foot injury, the Bears have been operating with a seven-man rotation for the past month," wrote B/R's Kerry Miller.
Their average margin of victory over their final five regular-season games was only 7.2 points, and that was followed by a 72-67 loss to Oklahoma in their Big 12 tournament opener.
That said, there's still a ton of talent in their rotation with James Akinjo (13.4 PPG, 5.7 APG) running the offense and plenty of outside shooting ability, and their plus-103 turnover differential on the year speaks to just how disruptive they can be on the defensive end.
This Bears team isn't anywhere close to last year's title-winning squad, but it's still capable of riding its defense out of the East Region. That might be the Bears' March Madness ceiling this time around, though, as they don't quite stack up to the nation's elite teams.
Buy or Sell: Sell
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Duke Blue Devils
4 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 8
There is no question the Duke Blue Devils are title contenders when everything is clicking.
However, this team had three Quad 2 losses and a Quad 3 loss at home to Virginia, averaging 14 turnovers in those games. That includes a season-high 17 turnovers against Miami during a 76-74 loss at Cameron Indoor in January.
Can they go six straight games without having one of those nights?
With five players averaging double figures in scoring, led by freshman phenom Paolo Banchero (17.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.1 APG) and junior leader Wendell Moore Jr. (13.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.6 APG), there is no shortage of weapons on the roster.
The Coach K retirement tour should be plenty of motivation for Duke to leave it all on the floor every time out, and he'll have his guys prepared for the task at hand. Maybe it's overly optimistic given the red flags they've shown at times, but this team still looks like a viable title threat.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Gonzaga Bulldogs
5 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 1
Sat what you will about the West Coast Conference, but Gonzaga still has the No. 1 offense in the country based on KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric, which takes into account quality of opponent.
They also rank No. 7 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 7'0" freshman Chet Holmgren has added another wrinkle to this team on the interior with 3.6 blocks per game to go along with his 14.2 points and 9.6 rebounds.
Senior guards Andrew Nembhard (11.7 PPG) and Rasir Bolton (11.2 PPG) average a combined 8.0 assists per game against just 4.1 turnovers, and junior post player Drew Timme (17.5 PPG, 58.8 FG%) has once again been one of the most efficient scorers in the country.
A 14-point win over a terrific Texas Tech defense and a 20-point victory over a well-rounded UCLA team during nonconference play make it easier to look past the fact that the Bulldogs played 13 games at the Quad 4 level and spent much of the year beating up on inferior opponents.
A No. 1 seed for the fourth time in the past five NCAA tournaments, this team has all the ingredients to finally get over the hump and claim a national title.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Kansas Jayhawks
6 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 3
The Kansas Jayhawks hung 74 points on an elite Texas Tech defense to win the Big 12 title game, matching the most points the Red Raiders have allowed in a regulation game this season.
Five players scored in double digits in that game, led by David McCormack (18 points, 11 rebounds), who had his fourth double-double in the last month. The 6'10" senior center is one of the biggest X-factors in the entire tournament, as Kansas is simply a different team when he's playing up to his full potential.
That said, even if he's not, this is still a loaded roster led by Big 12 Player of the Year Ochai Agbaji, who averaged 19.7 points per game on 40.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Christian Braun (14.6 PPG) and Jalen Wilson (10.9 PPG) also score in double figures, while seniors Mitch Lightfoot and Remy Martin provide valuable leadership.
If they play the way they did against Texas Tech last time out, they can beat anyone, but that stands as one of their few signature wins away from Allen Fieldhouse. A neutral-site win over Michigan State and a road win against an Oklahoma team that didn't make the tournament are their other Quad 1 victories away from home.
That's more nitpicking than anything, though, as the Jayhawks are squarely in the national title conversation.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Kentucky Wildcats
7 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 6
Just how good is peak Kentucky?
"Is full-strength Kentucky the best team in the country, or is that just a notion we all sort of agreed to while rarely getting to see full-strength Kentucky in the past two months?" wondered B/R's Kerry Miller while slotting the Wildcats at No. 5 in his full 68-team power rankings.
Oscar Tshiebwe is going to be showered with postseason accolades, and he's already won SEC Player of the Year and been named a Wooden Award finalist after averaging 17.0 points and 15.2 rebounds while also tallying 58 steals and 53 blocks in 33 games. He does a great job staying out of foul trouble and is as close to a lock for a double-double as we've seen in college basketball in years.
The question then becomes whether the supporting cast of TyTy Washington Jr. (12.8 PPG, 4.0 APG), Kellan Grady (11.5 PPG, 42.4 3PT%), Keion Brooks (10.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Sahvir Wheeler (10.0 PPG, 6.9 APG) can come together in a way that makes this an elite team.
This team might have the highest ceiling in the entire field, and that alone is reason enough to put them in the contenders category, even if we haven't seen them firing on all cylinders for much of the year.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Tennessee Volunteers
8 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 10
There's not a tougher No. 3 seed in this year's field than the Tennessee Volunteers, who might have had a case for a No. 1 seed after winning the SEC tournament.
Since suffering an ugly 107-79 loss on the road against Kentucky on Jan. 15, they've gone 15-2 in their last 17 games. That includes two wins over that same Kentucky team, as well as home wins over LSU, Auburn and Arkansas.
The X-factor might be 5-star freshman Kennedy Chandler, who averages 13.8 points while leading the team in assists (147) and steals (68). He has had some clunkers this year, but as B/R's Kerry Miller noted, the Volunteers are 20-2 when he shoots at least 37.5 percent from the floor.
The Volunteers ranked third in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and despite some struggles on the road this year, there's truth to the saying that defense travels.
As long as it is engaged on that end of the floor, this Tennessee team has proven it can run with the nation's elite teams during its recent streak of success. That's important since it'll need to get past Arizona and Villanova to make it out of the South Region.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Villanova Wildcats
9 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 7
As usual, Villanova wears down opponents by playing one of the slowest tempos in the nation while shooting a high volume of its shots from beyond the arc.
Senior Collin Gillespie averaged 15.9 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists while shooting 42.2 percent from beyond the arc to win Big East Player of the Year, and after he was sidelined with an injury during the team's NCAA tournament run last year, he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder.
However, the Wildcats defense had a tough time slowing down opponents in losses to UCLA (86-77), Purdue (80-74), UConn (71-69), Marquette (83-73) and Creighton (79-59). Overall, they have gone 5-5 in games where they allow 70-plus points.
They also don't have much in the way of depth with only six players who average more than 11 minutes per game, and that's going to be put to the test in a South Region that includes Arizona and Tennessee.
It wouldn't be surprising to see Villanova go on a run, simply because it is so well-coached and disciplined in its style of play. But this doesn't quite look like one of the nation's elite teams heading into March Madness.
Buy or Sell: Sell
Wisconsin Badgers
10 of 10
Seed List Ranking: No. 9
Is Johnny Davis 100 percent?
The Big Ten Player of the Year was knocked out of Wisconsin's regular-season finale against Nebraska with an ankle injury, and while he returned to play minutes against Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament, he didn't look like himself with an ugly 3-of-19 shooting performance in the Badgers' opening round loss.
"I'm sure getting back into a normal practice routine and getting into a rhythm will help him a lot," Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard told reporters. "It looked like he's been out of a rhythm in terms of what he's done in practice and he was because he was obviously working his way back from last weekend."
The 6'5" sophomore averages 19.7 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, and he's the biggest reason a Wisconsin team that was picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten's preseason poll is sitting on a No. 3 seed with a share of the Big Ten regular-season title in its pocket.
The Badgers face a tough test from 14th-seeded Colgate, a team that can make it rain from three, in the opening round. Until we've seen that Davis is back to his POY form, Wisconsin is squarely on upset watch and hard to include in the national title picture.
Buy or Sell: Sell
All stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
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