NCAA Men's Bracket 2022: Complete Guide to South Region
After winning 15 of their last 16 games—including the Pac-12 Conference Tournament— the Arizona Wildcats were rewarded with a top seed in the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship on Sunday, headlining the South region.
However, the path to Arizona’s fifth Final Four in school history is still far from assured. Well-coached, confident teams like Villanova and Tennessee as well as upset-minded small-conference powerhouses like Loyola Chicago and UAB stand in their way.
With the very first game of the region set to tip off Tuesday evening, here’s a preview of this group of 16, with advice and predictions galore.
1st-Round Schedule
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Wednesday, March 16
No. 16 Bryant vs. No. 16 Wright State, 6:40pm, truTV
Thursday, March 17
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Michigan, 12:15 pm CBS
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Longwood, 2:45pm, CBS
Friday, March 18
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Loyola Chicago, 12:15pm CBS
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Delaware, 2:45pm, CBS
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Chattanooga, 6:50pm, TNT
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Wright State/Bryant, 7:27pm, truTV
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 12 UAB, 9:20pm, TNT
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 TCU, 9:57pm, truTV
All game times in ET.
Must-See Games
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No. 5 Houston vs. No. 12 UAB
Every year, there's at least one "unstoppable force meets immovable object" game in the first round. Houston-UAB is the 2022 version.
Though Kelvin Sampson's Cougars are great on both sides of the ball— finishing 4th in the country in KenPom ratings— they really excel on defense, allowing just 59.1 points per game to their opponents (putting them fourth nationwide in that stat too). On the contrary, UAB is top-flight in putting the ball in the basket, averaging 80.7 points per game this season, good for sixth in the country.
If for no other reason, tune in to see a study of extremely contrasting styles.
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Loyola-Chicago
What's that old saying about Loyola-Chicago in March?
Well, as far as I know, there isn't actually a saying, but let's just say that we've been here before with this team. Sure, they had a different coach and a largely different roster for that magical run to the 2018 Final Four, but this is now the third time in four seasons that the Ramblers have earned a berth in March Madness, and they've got a pretty appetizing first-round matchup to boot.
After winning nine of their first 11 and climbing as high as 13th in the AP poll, Ohio State cratered back to earth, going 10-9 the rest of the way and losing to lower-seeded Penn State in the first round of the Big Ten Conference Tournament.
Needless to say, momentum has slowed to a crawl for the Buckeyes, but let's see if they can rise to the challenge against a perennial upstart like Loyola.
Top Storylines
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Can Tommy Lloyd Keep the Magic Going for Arizona?
It’s been a wild ride for Arizona. After three extremely middling years, Tommy Lloyd took over for the embattled Sean Miller with medium-to-low expectations and surpassed them all with flying colors. The Wildcats trail only Gonzaga in KenPom ratings, rank third in the nation in points per game and have won 18 games by at least 15 points. Put simply, they have turned into legitimate national champion threats.
Whether or not Lloyd can handle the pressure of having a target on his team’s back will make the difference between a disappointing early exit and the program’s first title in 25 years.
How Many Upsets Could There Be?
If you’re the resident chaos agent of your bracket group, the person who can’t resist picking an unreasonable amount of first-round upsets, we have great news. The South has plenty of options in store for you this year!
Of course, the classic pairings are ripe as always. We already discussed how UAB might be a great threat to Houston, and thirteenth-seeded Chattanooga might have something up its sleeve for Illinois (not to mention nominal underdogs like TCU, Michigan and Loyola Chicago who are just as talented as their favored opponents). But you also can’t rule out first-time tournament guests Longwood— 19-1 in its last 20 games— and the Delaware Blue Hens, who boast six players averaging at least nine points per game, are no easy out either.
In this region, perhaps it’s the higher-seeded teams that should be on guard.
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Players to Watch
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Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
One of the most decorated players in college basketball, Kofi Cockburn is appointment television whenever he steps on the court.
After making First Team All-Big Ten and Second Team All-American as a sophomore, it seemed like there was nothing else for Cockburn to achieve when he decided to return for another go-round. And sure, in some ways, he backslid a bit, scoring less efficiently and turning the ball over at a slightly higher rate. But the big man has set high expectations for himself, and when you just look at his season objectively, it was remarkable yet again— he's the only player in the sport to average 20 points and 10 rebounds per game this year.
And with a juicy first-round opponent in Kansas transfer Silvio de Sousa and Chattanooga, Cockburn might be in for a battle much earlier in the tournament than Illinois expects.
Hunter Dickinson, Michigan
It might seem a little counterintuitive to include Hunter Dickinson from 11th-seeded Michigan at the expense of, say, Villanova's Collin Gillespie, who's likely to advance further in the tournament. But Dickinson's just as good, and his team bowing out in the first weekend only increases your imperative to watch him before you can't anymore.
Because Michigan had a rocky season, Dickinson was not in the spotlight nearly as much as he was last year, when he was a consensus All-American and won numerous accolades as a freshman. But on an individual basis, he improved, assuming more responsibility as a passer, attempting threes more regularly and cutting back on both turnovers and fouls.
Prepare for the 7'1" sophomore to have a field day against a very small Colorado State frontcourt.
Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona
Of course we weren't going to leave off the best player on the No. 1 seed.
Despite a mild level of NBA interest, Mathurin returned to Arizona for his sophomore season and proceeded to set the country ablaze, averaging 17.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game on 46.0 percent shooting overall. He's solidified himself as a future lottery pick who can score at all three levels and defend multiple positions while captaining a well-balanced team with title aspirations.
If all goes well for the Wildcats, you'll be hearing his name a lot over the next month.
Jordan 'Jelly' Walker, UAB
Here's your underdog player to watch, for next weekend and hopefully beyond.
Nicknamed “Jelly” based on his association with the New York City-based Jellyfam AAU collective, Walker is one of the best players to emerge from that scene in several years and embodies all that's fun about its unique energy. Despite clocking in at just 5 '11 `` and 170 pounds, the junior commands the opposing team's attention from the moment he steps on the court, shaking defenders with fancy dribbling combinations, draining jumpers with lethal efficiency (40.6% from three this year) and finding teammates with brilliant dimes.
He's the captain of UAB's high-flying offense and will likely be the first person mentioned if the Blazers manage to knock off Houston on Friday.
Favorite Most Likely to Fall
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No. 6 Colorado State
The last slide alluded to this already, but Colorado State is a very small team. None of its five starters stand above 6'5", and none of its three bench big men play more than 16 minutes a game. This would seem a bad sign against Michigan, who have not just a true seven-footer in Hunter Dickinson, but also a 6'11" rebound fiend off the bench in Frenchman Moussa Diabate.
KenPom has these two teams on a relatively level playing field, with the Buffaloes at 31st and the Wolverines ranked 33rd overall and the latter outranking the former by just one spot (19th and 20th) on the offensive efficiency chart. By virtue of being more consistent, Colorado State is the deserved higher seed on paper, but when the game itself is played on Thursday, we might see Michigan have a party in the paint.
Most Likely Cinderella
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No. 11 Michigan
Yeah, on paper, calling the Michigan Wolverines a Cinderella is laughable. They’ve made ten of the last 11 NCAA tournaments and two Final Fours in the past decade. But it’s been a tumultuous season for this team. They haven’t won more than three games in a row yet, and coach Juwan Howard was suspended for five games at the end of February for participating in a now-infamous postgame dust-up with Wisconsin assistant Joe Krabbenhoft. He’s been back for several weeks now, but his temporary sidelining was quite symbolic of what’s often felt like an embarrassing campaign for the Maize and Blue.
All this being said, though, it would still be foolish to count out Michigan in March, because when this team is clicking, it’s still capable of beating anyone. Four of the Wolverines’ last five wins have come against NCAA Tournament teams— Purdue, Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State— and they still claim Hunter Dickinson, one of the most talented big men in the country.
Props to Colorado State. The team had a solid regular season and should celebrate its first tournament appearance in a decade. But they should beware their first-round draw, a potential sleeping giant.
Who Will Make the Sweet 16
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No. 1 Arizona
Let's not get too cute about this.
Seton Hall and TCU are good teams, particularly on the defensive end. The former comes in having won six of its last seven, while the latter boasts a coach in Jamie Dixon with plenty of postseason experience.
However, by March Madness standards, neither team has a very strong resume this season. Both have beaten tournament-caliber opponents, but few of those wins came by double figures, a feat that Arizona has accomplished regularly. After months of overwhelming opponents, the Wildcats are playing with swagger and smarts, and it'll take a more established team than Seton Hall or TCU to take them down.
No. 4 Illinois
Frankly, any of the four teams here could make the Sweet 16, and we've touched on all of them already. This is just a bet on talent.
We ran down Kofi Cockburn's exceptional season earlier, and he'd be a force worth reckoning with for Chattanooga and whoever wins between Houston and UAB. But let's not forget the Illini's trio of senior guards: Trent Frazier, Alfonso Plummer and Jacob Grandison. The former is a patient, confident ball-handler and the latter two calmly knock down jumpers with efficiency and aplomb.
In a subregion filled with potential volatility, Brad Underwood's group feels like the safest bet.
No. 3 Tennessee
We've mentioned Michigan several times here as a sleeping giant. And with Hunter Dickinson, anything's possible. But if they face Tennessee in the second round, they'll be in for a rude awakening.
Rick Barnes has his team playing some of the best defense in the country. The Volunteers are tied for eighth in the country in steals, boast three players who average at least one block (including 6'6” guard Josiah Jordan-James) and are commanded on offense by potential lottery pick Kennedy Chandler (13.8 ppg, 4.5 apg, 2.2 spg).
Will Dickinson have a good game against Tennessee? Probably. Great players find ways to be productive in almost any circumstance. Will his teammates join in that productivity? If Tennessee is prepared, then probably not.
No. 2 Villanova
Jay Wright bowed out in the second round in 2019, but otherwise he's arguably been the most successful coach in college basketball over the past decade. Betting against him this early in the tournament is a bad idea.
The through line between Wright's most successful teams? A great point guard. Everyone from Kyle Lowry to Scottie Reynolds to Ryan Arcidiacono to Jalen Brunson has led the Wildcats to March glory during Wright's 21 seasons in charge, and Collin Gillespie's poised to continue that line this year.
After being sidelined during the squad's run to the Sweet Sixteen last year, Gillespie is healthy and ready to go. He was just named the Big East's Player of the Year and led Villanova to the conference tournament title. The redshirt senior is on a mission, and after playing a minor role in the team's 2018 national championship, you better believe he's motivated to follow in Brunson's footsteps and win a second one as the team leader.
The Elite Eight Matchup Will Be
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No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Villanova
This is quite a strong bracket, and there’s cases to be made for both Illinois and Tennessee.
First, the Illini. Like Arizona, this is a team that excels on both sides of the ball. Plus, as already discussed, they’ve got talented, veteran players. But if Cockburn wasn’t challenged much in the previous rounds, he certainly will be here. Arizona’s Christian Koloko, while a potential fouling risk (2.9 per game), blocks 2.7 shots per game and the Wildcats in totality are relentless on the boards, ranking first in the nation in total rebounds. If they’re able to neutralize Illinois’ best player and usual matchup advantage, then it’ll be smooth sailing to the Elite Eight.
As for the Villanova-Tennessee matchup, this has potential to be one of the best games of the tournament. Rick Barnes and Jay Wright are probably two of the country’s 10 or 15 best coaches, Colin Gillespie and Kennedy Chandler are two of the country’s premier floor generals, and once again, these are two teams that rank in the top 40 of KenPom’s offense and defense rankings (sensing a trend here).
Separating one team from the other is a matter of splitting extremely fine hairs, and on this grand stage, Villanova’s experience feels like a slightly safer bet. Wright’s obviously been here before and all of his rotation members are upperclassmen, while Tennessee’s point guard and sixth man are freshmen.
Sometimes, the intangibles make all the difference.
And the Final Four Team Is…
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No. 1 Arizona
A first-year coach matching wits with one of the game’s sage overlords. A school that hasn’t made the Elite Eight in seven years against a school looking for its third title in the same timespan. A team that starts one upperclassman against a team that starts five of them. This is a classic David-Goliath matchup, if not for the fact that the seeming David outranks the apparent Goliath.
In an earlier slide, I posited that Arizona will lose if and when it encounters a team that remains unshaken by its confidence and physicality. Villanova absolutely fits such a profile. The way that Arizona always poses a fierce problem in the paint, Villanova is similarly destructive to opponents on the perimeter. Big-bodied players like Justin Moore, Jermaine Samuels and Brandon Slater could push around the slender Bennedict Mathurin (6’7”, 195 lbs), forcing him into difficult shots and bad decisions, and if Mathurin has an off-night, Arizona’s offense may not come easily.
On the other hand, this might just be another case of a good matchup for Arizona. We know that Tommy Lloyd’s group is terrific around the basket, but such a strength is liable to become unfair against Villanova, who rosters zero players above 6’9”. That’s not to say that Villanova can’t compete in the paint— players like Samuels and Eric Dixon are big and wide enough to hold their own against taller opponents— but Arizona being elite at rebounding and incredibly efficient on two-pointers (57.5%, fifth nationwide) could be just the edge it needs to sneak into the Final Four.
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