NCAA Tournament Predictions 2022: Men's Sleeper Teams That Could Make Deep Runs
It's a tough needle to thread. You want to find that perfect sleeper team. You don't want the bragging rights to end after a mere 48 hours.
No, you want to brag comfortable into the second weekend, and maybe even beyond. But the pendulum swings both ways. You can't put, say, Arkansas in the Elite Eight and credibly call it a sleeper pick.
So how does one find one's Goldilocks Cinderella? That's what we're here to help you do. Here are seven teams we think can make deep runs in this season's NCAA men's tournament.
To find the best sleeper, we'll focus on teams that are seeded No. 6 or below. But we're looking for deep runs, not just some Hail Mary candidate for a first-round stunner. So there is a line to be walked here, and we aim to walk it. Impress your friends with your spotless second-weekend lines after a typically tumultuous tournament opening.
They are listed in no particular order.
Murray State Racers (East/No. 7 Seed)
1 of 7
Record: 30-2
NET Ranking: 21
First opponent: No. 10 San Francisco Dons (24-9)
No Ja Morant bump here. These 2021-22 Murray State Racers are overflowing with substance.
Murray State is a good offensive team, even if it isn't stellar from outside the arc. But the team's calling card is its disruptive defense.
Just ask Belmont, the Racers' top rival in the Ohio Valley Conference, which managed just 43 points on February 24 with the regular-season conference title on the line. The Racers went ahead and won the conference tourney, too, completing the immaculate run through their OVC season.
The Racers sit second nationally in scoring margin with a 17-point differential and sixth nationally in rebounding margin with eight, per NCAA stats.
Guard Tevin Brown and forward KJ Williams ruled the OVC leaderboards like a two-headed monster, combining to average 35—or 44 percent—of the team's 79 points per game. They should be able to wreak havoc against a the Dons in the opening round.
Iowa State Cyclones (Midwest/No. 11)
2 of 7
Record: 20-12
NET Ranking: 49
First opponent: No. 6 LSU Tigers (22-11)
No. 9 Creighton was another tempting upset pick in the Midwest, but it's the Bluejays' bad luck to be living in top-seeded Kansas' shadow. Iowa State is on the much safer side of the bracket.
Only four teams have more Q1 wins than Iowa State, which racked up nine during a grueling Big 12 schedule. The Cyclones also losers of three straight and 1-4 against Q2, but how about we just go ahead and forget about that stuff?
They have a dreadful time scoring the ball, but they're a top-10 defense that limits opponents to just 29.6 percent shooting from three. If they can deliver on that percentage, they could shut off the water on even high-powered offenses.
LSU is not such an offense, meaning the first-round game between Iowa State and LSU should be an outstanding defensive matchup. If ISU can get to the Sweet 16, a tangle with an Auburn team that stumbled down the stretch is a lot less scary than having to face the Jayhawks.
Loyola Chicago Ramblers (South Region/No. 10)
3 of 7
Record: 25-7
NET Ranking: 23
First opponent: No. 7 Seed Ohio State Buckeyes (19-11)
I was told that if I didn't include Loyola Chicago on this list, I would instantly be struck by lightning. And that's not what I'm looking for.
The Missouri Valley Conference champs are in prime position to make a few waves, even if they won't exactly be sneaking up on anyone pretty much ever again. You kind of relinquish your anonymity when you become one of the great Cinderellas of all time. All they did last season in their first trip back to the dance since the magic of 2018 was shock a No. 1 seed (Illinois) en route to a Sweet 16.
This isn't the most talented Ramblers team, but that was never the draw anyway. They do a little of everything well, and they're balanced, with seven players playing at least 17 minutes per game.
They don't take a lot of shots (242nd nationally in field-goal attempts), but when they take them, they make them, with their 48.3 percent overall shooting and 38.3 percent shooting from three ranking them 18th and 11th in the nation, respectively. They also sit 22nd in KenPom's defensive rankings.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
Boise State Broncos (West Region/No. 8 Seed)
4 of 7
Record: 27-7
NET ranking: 29
First opponent: No. 9 Memphis Tigers (21-10)
The Broncos have real momentum after winning both the Mountain West Conference regular-season and tournament titles. They've been playing at a high level all year, with six Q1 victories and a 13-6 combined record over Quadrants 1 and 2.
Defense is at a premium this time of year, and BSU fits the bill as the 17th-ranked defense on KenPom and 13th nationally with 60.8 points allowed per contest.
Boise State's most eye-popping stat comes from its novel approach. In practice, the Broncos emphasize what they call a "perfect possession" on defense, whereby they allow only one shot.
Apparently they understood the assignment, as they're allowing a mere 6.8 offensive rebounds per game, good for sixth in the country. That kind of methodical technique that's likely immune to the ups and downs of a typical back-and-forth tournament game.
Imagine this kind of team facing overall No. 1 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. Could the Broncos gum up the works on the Bulldogs' poetry-in-motion offense? If anyone can, why not this group?
TCU Horned Frogs (South Region/No. 9)
5 of 7
Record: 20-12
NET Ranking: 45
First opponent: No. 8 Seton Hall (21-10)
In the quarterfinal round of the Big 12 tourney, TCU rallied from a 40-20 first-half deficit to take down Texas and in the process cement its own Big Dance status. It was a head-turning way to get revenge on a Longhorns team that swept their regular-season series.
It speaks to the battle-tested nature of this bevy of Horned Frogs. They've played 18 games against Q1 opponents, winning eight. That's two more Q1 win than Duke and seven more than Houston. Against Texas, leading scorer Mike Miles shot 1-of-8 and rolled his ankle in the first half, only to return and ultimately gut out 13 points.
All to say: If you like rock fights, this is your team. The Horned Frogs only manage 68.1 points per game, but they only allow 65.0. So, as they say, there's your ballgame. Don't worry about that current three-of-four-game losing streak, two of which came to juggernaut Kansas.
The Seton Hall Pirates are a bit of an accomplished bunch of rock-fighters themselves, so this should be a fun one, if you will. Experience and grit should tip the scales in favor of these leathery reptiles—Seton Hall is several slots higher on the NET rankings than TCU while boasting two fewer Q1 wins—and that should continue to be the case as the tournament wears on.
Colorado State Rams (South/No. 6 Seed)
6 of 7
Record: 25-5
NET Ranking: 28
First opponent: No. 11 Michigan Wolverines (17-14)
Even after catching a stunner at the hands of San Diego State in the Mountain West tourney semifinals, the Rams are still 9-2 in their last 11.
At the top level, what stands out is their shooting, particularly closer around the basket. Their overall field-goal percentage (48.5) is 14th nationally, anchored by their 56.6 percent success rate inside the arc.
Speaking of sleepers, barrel-chested guard David Roddy is getting buzz as a potential NBA draft pick. He's a big driver of these impressive team numbers, converting 57.4 percent of his shot attempts, good for tops in the conference and 22nd nationally. He also leads the Mountain West in several important advanced metrics, including effective field-goal percentage (63.4), true shooting percentage (64.9), player efficiency rating (31.0) and box plus-minus (11.6), to name a few. He's only failed to score in double figures three times this season, and none since January 15.
Their strength of schedule—and success against it—is stronger than one might think. A combined 13-4 records against Q1 and Q2 is nothing to sneeze at.
As a team, Colorado State has one key intangible that you could view as a negative or a positive, though I'm going to view it as the latter: experience with close games. During the aforementioned streak, the average margin of victory was just 8.4 points and included four games decided by three points or fewer. But the Rams won the close ones. That means they don't get rattled, and that's invaluable come the postseason.
A first game against an underachieving Wolverines group is a good way to get the dance rolling for Rams fans.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (West/No. 11)
7 of 7
Record: 18-13
NET Ranking: 77
First opponent: No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Play-in game)
This may be the sleepiest sleeper of the bunch. The Knights of New Jersey have been inconsistent all season. But they've demonstrated resilience and even excellence over that time.
They'll have a tall task in front of them, though, starting their dance in the First Four against another scrappy bunch in Notre Dame.
For Rutgers it all starts with Ron Harper Jr. He's not a generational athlete, but he always seems to be around the ball, no matter which end of the floor.
The Scarlets Knights as a whole fit into that same mold. There are no eye-popping stats, just wins, including that brilliant four-game stretch in February that saw them knock off Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois—all ranked in the Top 20—in succession. Before that streak began, the team was 12-9 and coming off a loss to Northwestern. That stretch saved the season and redefined the team.
And now it comes back to Harper. He embodies this toughness through his clutchness. That March 2 game-winner over Indiana was the most notable example.
Rutgers has the stuff to take some teams by surprise. They've been doing it all season.
Statistics courtesy of ESPN and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted and accurate through March 11.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
