When to Watch Duke-UNC, OVC/MVC Title Games & More in Huge College Hoops Weekend
The first weekend of the NCAA tournament is why they call it March Madness, but this weekend before Selection Sunday is always pure pandemonium.
Part of the drama/intrigue/confusion is that it's easy to forget which games are still regular season and which ones are part of a conference tournament—a phenomenon that I'm fairly certain is unique to college hoops.
On Saturday, you could (and perhaps should) go straight from watching a Missouri Valley Conference semifinal to the gigantic UNC-Duke regular-season finale for Coach K to the Ohio Valley Championship game.
To help you (and, frankly, myself) keep track of it all, I've put together one final weekend viewing guide.
For each of the five viewing windows on Saturday and for the full slate of games on Sunday, we'll touch on every game with potential NCAA tournament implications, highlighting a primary game and a secondary game to watch in each block.
Saturday Early Afternoon
1 of 6
Headliner: No. 14 Arkansas at No. 13 Tennessee (Noon ET on ESPN)
Make sure you're up and at'em for the opening slate of games on Saturday, as Arkansas-Tennessee is the second-biggest game of the weekend.
The Razorbacks and the Volunteers are two of the hottest teams in the country. Arkansas has won 14 of its past 15 games, and Tennessee's only loss in nine games was at Arkansas two weekends ago. Both teams are firmly in the mix for a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament, and I suspect the winner of this game will enter the SEC tournament on that projected seed line.
And if Tennessee happens to win out, the Vols are still in the mix for a No. 1 seed. They would need some help to get there, but if they were to beat both Auburn and Kentucky en route to the SEC tournament title, they would be able to help themselves out quite a bit by leapfrogging both of those teams. They are currently top-12 in all six metrics with seven Quadrant 1 wins and no losses outside of the top half of Quadrant 1. Put three more Quadrant 1 wins on that resume, and they're in business.
Undercard: No. 25 Alabama at LSU (Noon ET on CBS)
Betting on any Alabama or LSU game is an efficient way to drain your bank account, but you might need an intervention if you're considering betting on an Alabama-LSU game.
LSU won January games against Kentucky and Tennessee before losing February games to Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Ole Miss. But at least the Tigers are at home, which should make a major difference against an Alabama team that has beaten the likes of Baylor, Houston, Tennessee and Arkansas in Tuscaloosa, but which has proven liable to lose to Missouri and Georgia when leaving town.
Both teams are solidly in the NCAA tournament, but this game might determine the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds of the SEC tournament, as well as who gets a No. 5 and who gets a No. 6 in the big dance.
Other Games to Monitor
No. 11 Villanova at Butler (Noon ET on FOX): Providence has locked up the No. 1 seed in the Big East tournament, but Villanova could polish off a 23-7 overall, 16-4 Big East season with a win over sub-.500 Butler. But Hinkle Fieldhouse has given Villanova fits in recent years, with Butler winning four of its past five home games in this series.
Davidson at Dayton (12:30 p.m. ET): Davidson is probably an NCAA tournament team even if it loses this one, and Dayton still has a lot of work left to do even if it gets a W over the Wildcats. But a Davidson win would lock up an outright A-10 regular-season title and would effectively remove both of these teams from the bubble.
Miami at Syracuse (1 p.m. ET on ESPNU): It's still weird that 15-15 Syracuse is nowhere near this year's bubble, but the Orange keep playing in big bubble games. They almost knocked off North Carolina on Monday, and they could deliver a huge blow to Miami's at-large dreams by winning this season finale. At roughly 60th in the NET with three Quadrant 3 losses already on their resume, the Hurricanes can ill afford to let this one slip away.
South Carolina at No. 5 Auburn (1 p.m. ET on SECN): Road games have been a serious adventure for Auburn, but the Tigers are a perfect 15-0 at home this season, all wins by a margin of at least nine points. They should cruise into the SEC tournament with a blowout win here.
Mid-Afternoon
2 of 6
Headliner: No. 7 Kentucky at Florida (2 p.m. ET on CBS)
For both the headliner and the undercard of the mid-afternoon slate, we've got one team smack dab on the bubble with a massive opportunity to pick off a projected No. 2 seed. And we're highlighting the SEC showdown over the Big Ten battle because at least the bubble team is at home in this one.
Florida nearly kissed its bid goodbye on Tuesday night, trailing by eight at Vanderbilt when the game's final media timeout happened. But the Gators outscored the Commodores 14-2 the rest of the way to remain in the hunt.
They need another big win, though. To this point, all they have is a home win over Auburn and a neutral win over Ohio State (which doesn't look as good after the Buckeyes' recent losses to Maryland and Nebraska). That would probably be alright if the Gators had no bad losses, but a 15-point Quadrant 4 home loss to Texas Southern remains a significant issue. If Florida doesn't beat Kentucky here, it's probably going to need to knock off one of the top two teams in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament.
Conversely, if Florida does win, not only would it be in good shape for a bid, but we could also safely remove Kentucky from the list of candidates for a No. 1 seed.
Undercard: Indiana at No. 8 Purdue (2 p.m. ET on ESPN)
It doesn't get much better than one of the best rivalries in college basketball taking place while one team potentially has a spot in the NCAA tournament on the line. And no, I'm not yet talking about North Carolina at Duke.
Indiana is sitting at 18-11 overall with a very bubble-y resume. Home wins over Purdue and Ohio State are all well and good, but a 4-11 record against the top 1.5 quadrants—plus a pathetic nonconference strength of schedule—leaves something to be desired. But a road win over Purdue would cure what ails Indiana's tournament resume.
On the Purdue front, back-to-back nail-biting losses at Michigan State and Wisconsin have probably knocked the Boilermakers out of the mix for a No. 1 seed. But with season sweeps of Illinois and Iowa to their credit along with a neutral-site victory over Villanova, maybe they could still get there by winning out. At this point, though, it seems they're playing for a No. 2 seed.
Other Games to Monitor
Virginia Tech at Clemson (2 p.m. ET on ACCN): The predictive metrics (top 40 in NET, KenPom, BPI and Sagarin) have been keeping 19-11 Virginia Tech on the tournament radar, but the Hokies still have a lot of work to do. A loss at Clemson would likely allow us to remove this team from the conversation.
TCU at West Virginia (2 p.m. ET on ESPN+): This looked like a must-win game for TCU a week ago, but that was before the Horned Frogs won back-to-back home games against Texas Tech and Kansas. They are definitely in and playing for seeding at this point, while West Virginia tries to salvage literally anything after losing 14 of its past 15 games.
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame (2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN News): Must-win game for the Fighting Irish. Simple as that. They might already be on the wrong side of the bubble after losing to Florida State on Wednesday, and a home loss to Pitt would just about bury them for good.
Seton Hall at Creighton (2:30 p.m. ET on FOX): Creighton likely punched its ticket with a win over Connecticut on Wednesday, but one more win wouldn't hurt, right? After all, the Bluejays have a mediocre NET and predictive metrics and don't need to be hanging around the bubble once teams start stealing automatic bids.
North Texas at UTEP (3 p.m. ET on ESPN+): Here's your weekly "Did you know?" trivia: North Texas is the only D1 men's basketball team that is undefeated in true road games this season. The Mean Green has lost just once (at home) since Thanksgiving weekend, and it will be a legitimate at-large candidate so long as that remains true through the weekend.
No. 12 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (3 p.m. ET on ESPN+): It's the final game of the season for postseason-ineligible Oklahoma State, and it's a chance for Texas Tech to improve its unlikely-but-still-possible case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Red Raiders are in the Nos. 10-15 range in all six metrics with six very impressive wins to their credit.
TBD Missouri Valley Semifinal (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports): Of the two MVC semifinals, this is the biggie. Assuming both win on Friday—and, to be clear, assuming ANYTHING in Arch Madness is a fool's errand—this would be the Northern Iowa vs. Loyola-Chicago showdown. The Ramblers might be able to get an at-large bid if they don't win this tournament, but winning this game is non-negotiable.
Late Afternoon / Early Evening
3 of 6
Headliner: No. 21 Texas at No. 6 Kansas (4 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Despite its recent loss to TCU and a less-than-stellar loss to Dayton back in November, Kansas is still a strong candidate for a No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks seem to belong on the No. 2 line at the moment, but if they beat Texas and win the Big 12 tournament, they would surely climb back into the top four. Lose this game to Texas, though, and even winning the Big 12 tournament would no longer guarantee them a spot on the No. 1 line.
But the more intriguing team here is Texas, which has spent almost the entire season in the AP Top 25 without any performances that make you think, "Oh yeah, that team is good enough to make the Elite Eight."
Closing out the regular season with a road win over Kansas would be a major perception-changer, and very likely a seed-changer for the Longhorns. With a loss, they're probably a low No. 5 or a high No. 6 heading into the Big 12 tournament. But this is the type of win that could propel them back into the vicinity of a No. 3 seed.
Undercard: VCU at Saint Louis (4 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
Saint Louis looked to be in decent shape for a bid about a month ago, but that ship has sailed. The Billikens have lost four of their past seven games, and they were a "well, maybe if I squint hard enough" bubble team before that rough patch. It's "auto bid or bust" for them.
But they could still derail VCU's path to the tournament by winning this season finale.
The Rams have won eight in a row, as well as 18 of their past 21. In the process, they have cobbled together a respectable resume, despite miserable offensive efficiency numbers and just the one win against a serious at-large candidate (at Davidson). They also played well against both Baylor and Connecticut back in November despite playing those games without lead guard Ace Baldwin.
However, a loss to Saint Louis would be their fifth against a team unlikely to dance without an auto bid. With minimal noteworthy wins, that might be the dagger.
Other Games to Monitor
Oklahoma at Kansas State (4 p.m. ET on ESPN+): It's not a strong pulse, but I suppose Oklahoma still has some hope for an at-large bid. The Sooners are 16-14, but they faced one of the toughest schedules in the country and only suffered one loss outside the top 1.5 quadrants (an overtime game against Butler). A win at Kansas State paired with a victory over Kansas or Baylor in the Big 12 quarterfinals would get the Sooners more legitimately back on the radar.
Fresno State at Wyoming (4 p.m. ET): Wyoming seems to be falling apart at the seams, losing games to New Mexico, Colorado State, San Diego State and UNLV in the past three weeks. If the Cowboys add a home loss to Fresno State—a respectable foe, but not an at-large candidate—things could get dicey. BPI and Sagarin are already not fans of the Cowboys, and a loss here could knock them out of the top 50 in NET and/or the resume metrics, too.
DePaul at No. 18 Connecticut (5 p.m. ET on FOX); California at No. 2 Arizona (5 p.m. ET): The ranked teams playing at home should each win by double digits against these foes who rank in the bottom three of their respective conferences. But we still want to make note of them in case something weird happens.
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Prime Time
4 of 6
Headliner: North Carolina at No. 4 Duke (6 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Even without accounting for this being Mike Krzyzewski's last home game, this is a huge game.
After last Saturday's complete chaos atop the rankings, Duke is right back in the running for a No. 1 seed. If Arizona, Gonzaga, Baylor and Auburn all win out, the Blue Devils probably wouldn't be able to climb all the way into the selection committee's top four. But if they win out and get even a little bit of help, Coach K's final NCAA tournament may well be his 15th dance as a No. 1 seed.
Meanwhile, the visiting Tar Heels are just hoping to secure a spot in the field. Most bracketologists have them hovering just barely ahead of the play-in game spots. A road win over Duke would surely seal the deal, but a loss here and an immediate loss in the ACC tournament (likely against Wake Forest in the No. 4/No. 5 quarterfinal) would leave North Carolina in an extremely vulnerable spot. Couple that with one or two strong finishes by bubble teams and one or two bid thieves, and UNC goes to the NIT.
Now pepper in the eternal hatred between these rivals and the Coach K retirement factor, and I am having a very hard time coming up with a bigger regular-season game in college basketball history.
Undercard: Iowa State at No. 3 Baylor (6 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
Iowa State was creeping toward the bubble (in a bad way) a few weeks ago, but the Cyclones reeled off consecutive wins over TCU, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas State to just about lock up an at-large bid. A road win over Baylor would be huge, though, and could put Iowa State in the mix for something like a No. 4 seed, as it would be the Cyclones' 10th Quadrant 1 win, and by far their best one yet.
But if we assume Baylor holds serve at home, the Bears could still win an outright Big 12 title for the second successive year and would remain in the hunt for the No. 1 overall seed. As of Wednesday morning, the Bears were the only team in the country with at least 10 Quadrant 1 wins, boasting a dozen of them. Their metrics are also ridiculously strong across the board.
Other Games to Monitor
Georgetown at Xavier (7 p.m. ET on FS1): Not that you're going to be changing the channel from UNC-Duke anyway, but this window of games is incredibly bleak beyond the headliner and undercard. With the way Xavier has been shooting itself in the foot over the past six weeks, though, this one could get interesting. The Musketeers might get into the tournament as long as they don't lose to "currently on a 19-game losing streak" Georgetown, but can the X-Men even be trusted in this game?
TBD Missouri Valley Semifinal (6 p.m. ET on CBS Sports): It's not nearly as big as Northern Iowa vs. Loyola-Chicago, but if you insist on having something on a third screen, a projected Missouri State vs. Drake matchup for a spot in the MVC title game would be an excellent choice. The Bears have quite the dynamic duo in Isiaih Mosley and Gaige Prim, while the Bulldogs have basically the same roster as last year's 26-5 team, save for Tucker DeVries admirably replacing Kansas transfer Joseph Yesufu. The winner is going to put up one heck of a fight against the UNI-LUC winner.
Night Cap
5 of 6
Headliner: Ohio Valley Conference Championship (8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
We talk about teams who are locks for the NCAA tournament all the time, but the winner of this game will become the first official entrant to the dance.
We don't yet know who will be playing in that game, as the semifinals will take place on Friday night, but we assume it'll be Murray State vs. Belmont for all the OVC marbles. We also assume that the 28-2 Racers would get into the tournament no matter what happens in that game, but with minimal quality wins to their credit, this is no time to rest on their laurels.
Murray State won the two regular-season matchups by a combined margin of 55 points. Hopefully Belmont at least makes things a little more interesting if we do end up getting that third meeting.
Undercard: No. 16 USC at No. 17 UCLA (10 p.m. ET on ESPN)
It's likely we'll see this exact matchup again next Friday in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament, as this game will determine the order in which UCLA and USC get the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. USC won the home game three weeks ago, and most assume UCLA will get the home win in this one. If that's the case, a rubber match would be nice.
But as far as NCAA tournament seeding is concerned, this is a massive opportunity for the Trojans, who currently have just two wins over projected tournament teams.
They're probably looking at a No. 6 or No. 7 seed if Selection Sunday were today, but there's still plenty of time to improve that number. They could win this game and knock off both UCLA and Arizona en route to a Pac-12 tournament title and basically climb one seed line for each of those marquee wins.
Other Games to Monitor
Mississippi State at Texas A&M (8:30 p.m. ET on SECN): Well, this game got a whole heck of a lot more interesting on Wednesday night after Texas A&M's road win over Alabama and Mississippi State's overtime loss to Auburn. I originally penciled this one in as a bubble elimination game, which it may still be. But an Aggies win, in particular, would make the early rounds of the SEC tournament even more interesting.
Boise State at Colorado State (8:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports): Both of these Mountain West schools are headed to the NCAA tournament, and Boise State will be the No. 1 seed in the MWC tourney no matter what happens here. But in the eternal quest to figure out which Nos. 7-10 seeds might be able to knock off a No. 1 or No. 2 seed to reach the Sweet 16, this should be an informative contest.
St. John's at Marquette (9 p.m. ET on FS1): Marquette got smoked by DePaul on Wednesday night, just a few weeks after a bad loss to Butler. The Golden Eagles are now 18-11 overall, and they could turn what once looked like a sure thing into a photo finish if they drop this home game against St. John's.
San Diego State at Nevada (10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports): San Diego State probably locked up its spot in the field by winning at Wyoming on Monday night, but a win over Nevada would erase all doubt and ensure the Aztecs end the regular season without any losses outside of Quadrant 1.
San Francisco vs. BYU* (10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2): BYU needs to win on Friday night in order to set up this WCC quarterfinal, but this projected matchup is going to be of major bubble importance. BYU has been dancing around the cutline for the better part of a month. With a loss to the Dons, the Cougars are probably out. A win would at least temporarily put them in.
Sunday's Slate
6 of 6
Headliner: No. 14 Houston at Memphis (Noon ET on CBS)
Is Houston finally going to get a Quadrant 1 win? Is Memphis going to clinch its spot in the field by ending this topsy turvy regular season with a massive W?
Well, it's Memphis, so I have no clue and neither do you. But it's going to be a fascinating mid-major game with major implications.
Houston's resume is this season's ultimate conundrum. Despite incredible predictive metrics and NET ranking, the Cougars were not in the selection committee's top-16 reveal on Feb. 19, due entirely to their lack of quality wins. They have improved the overall resume a fair amount since then, though, and this could be the feather in the cap they desperately need to make a run at a No. 3 seed.
But Houston is going to get in no matter what. Memphis is going to be smack dab on the bubble heading into the AAC tournament if it fails to finish off the season sweep of Houston. The Tigers are just 2-2 against projected tournament teams, plus seven losses outside of that group. The metrics look fine enough, but another quality win might be a necessity.
Undercard: No. 24 Iowa at No. 20 Illinois (7:30 p.m. ET on FS1)
Iowa is still chasing a coveted double bye in the Big Ten tournament, while Illinois is just hoping to carry some positive momentum into the postseason.
Regardless of who wins, this figures to be an entertaining, back-and-forth affair. When these teams first met back in December, Illinois won 87-83, and both of these offenses have been red hot as of late. The KenPom projection says Illinois 79-77, but it would be shocking if the winning team is held below 80 points in what is the final game of the 2021-22 regular season.
Other Games to Monitor
Big South Championship (Noon ET on ESPN2): If this game is anything like the first round—in which three of the four games went to overtime and the last-place team won on a buzzer-beater in the only game to end in regulation—buckle up. It should end up being Winthrop at Longwood for a possible spot as a No. 15 seed in the NCAA tournament, but who knows what craziness awaits.
Penn State at Rutgers (Noon ET on BTN): After Ron Harper Jr's game-winner at Indiana on Wednesday night, Rutgers might be able to lock up an at-large bid with a home win over Penn State and by avoiding a bad loss in its Big Ten tournament opener.
Michigan at No. 23 Ohio State (12:30 p.m. ET on FOX): Ohio State is sputtering to the finish line with recent bad losses to Maryland and Nebraska. The Buckeyes are still comfortably in the tournament, though, and the Wolverines would be, too, if they win this one. Victories over Purdue, Iowa, Michigan State and Rutgers in the past month have salvaged what was a very disappointing first three months for Michigan.
Nebraska at No. 10 Wisconsin (2 p.m. ET on BTN): From Dec. 1 through Feb. 25, Nebraska went 2-19. But the Cornhuskers are 2-0 since then with road wins over Penn State and Ohio State. Don't call it a comeback, but do call it a colossal upset if they happen to knock off the projected No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament. A win would keep the Badgers on the fringe of the NCAA No. 1 seed conversation.
Missouri Valley Championship (2 p.m. ET on CBS): The MVC might only be a one-bid league this year, but that No. 11 or No. 12 seed is going to be a serious threat to reach the Sweet 16. Forced to venture a guess before the quarterfinals are even played, I think we'll get a Missouri State vs. Loyola-Chicago game here, and it would be a dandy.
Tulane at SMU (3 p.m. ET on ESPN+): An absolute must-win game for SMU if it wants to remain within a stone's throw of reaching the dance. Any loss prior to the AAC championship game would likely seal the Mustangs' fate in the NIT.
Maryland at Michigan State (4:30 p.m. ET on CBS): Is the real Michigan State the one that beat Purdue last weekend, or the one that bookended that victory with blowout losses to Iowa and Michigan? As of late, it sure feels like the latter, and a home loss to Maryland would be quite the cherry on top of a terrible second half of the season for the Spartans.
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